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If kids back in 1990 loved the first tmnt film,I see no reason why they wouldn't like a darker tmnt film in todays age of gritty reboots.
I have a feeling that if Rise suddenly becomes a big hit and brings on the second turtlemania, that will give the creators of the film more liberty over the next film since the tmnt brand would generate good profit anyway.
On the other hand, if the show only performs average, then Nick will play it safe and make the next movie as light as the show by listening to what the charts say about the latest trends and their profit potential.
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