We'll see, but don't play this game for money, squire. "They" haven't said a word in years, period. And every single word spoken from people "in the biz" about WHY is, "They're absolutely not going to do an R-Rated comic book movie but they don't want to say that out loud and piss off people like Andrew."
Why they'd reverse course all of a sudden NOW would be a mystery ("desperation" would be one reason, but I doubt that they're there just yet). They've been doing nothing BUT trying to figure out how
not to do it for a couple of years now.
When they still had blockbusters in the pipeline, "Deadpool 3" was simply not going to happen, period. They were going to very quietly wait until everyone forgot about it. They have NO impetus to start making R-rated comic book films when their entire business model is based on Saturday morning kiddie CBM stuff. One phone call from an angry Karen upsets the entire business model. It ain't happening.
Now, they can't make a blockbuster, so they dig in the drawer for something "cheap" to release instead. Thus, the revived interest in "Deadpool 3", which they haven't talked about at all in ages. But this isn't the same Disney from 30 years ago that would let "risque" projects out under other banners. This is the 2020, "No Risk/High Reward" Disney that doesn't want to "offend" anyone.
Ryan Reynolds might not be a "starving artist" anymore, BUT he also doesn't exactly do a whole lot outside of Deadpool, either. There's every chance that he just takes the check. OR, they let him go and say "So what?"
I mean, it's Disney. They'll be just fine with OR without "Deadpool 3". People operate under this silly idea that they NEED to make that movie, and that they HAVE to do it "the way fans want", but neither of those things are true in the slightest. YOU need Deadpool 3. Disney absolutely does not. "But the first made a billion dollars! They'd be STUPID not to do it!" Seriously? They made a billion dollars with a talking racoon and a bunch of no-name Z-listers. They could make "Howard the Duck" tomorrow and make a billion dollars. They crap a billion dollars.
If they think even one soccer mommy might accidentally take their kid to Deadpool 3 because they thought it was an Avengers spin-off and that they'd get an angry phone call afterwards, they're not gonna make the movie that way. It's that simple. The fact that they still want to have him be in "neutered" movies palling around with Spider-Man only lends more credence to the idea that they're not gonna go "hardcore" with the solo flicks. Disney doesn't do "market confusion" or "tiered entry" anymore. They're all-kids, all the time.
I mean, we'll see, obviously. But again, ALL I've heard for years is, "They're either not making it, OR they will but it's gonna be neutered." The PG-13 release of Deadpool 2 was a test run to see what they could get away with. Disney DOES NOT WANT to make R-Rated Deadpool movies. It's silly to think they want or have to. They don't want to,
and they don't have to.
We'll see, but I'll be shocked. To try for three years to bury the entire project because they didn't wanna make it R-rated, only to abruptly reverse course and do exactly that just because they need a quick influx of cash, well... that's generally not how this company operates. So I'll be incredibly surprised to say the least. There's much less risky ways they can make a fast billion.