Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

[TigerClaw]

Box Office Mojo has posted an article containing the Box Office Predictions to several of the big Summer Movies for 2014, Which includes TMNT.
http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3826&p=.htm

11. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (August 8 ) : With the potential to add to already impressive toy sales, it makes financial sense to bring the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles back to the big screen. The first teaser left something to be desired, though, and the mid-August release date is tricky (with Guardians a week before, can this really break out?). It's possible that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles performs on par with 2009 toy adaptation G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra ($150.2 million), but for now we're betting lower on it. (Domestic: $130 million, Foreign: $255 million)

[Xav]

That seems about right. Unfortunately that would be enough for a sequel.

[Refractive Reflections]

Based on Micheal Bay's box office performance and with TMNT being a previously established franchise (similarly with Transformers), I'm guessing around $550 million. (Basically a little higher than the article predicted: $385 million) The nostalgia factor, the Nick show being out (Nick advertising it to kids, and thus them wanting their parents to take them), and the mere curiosity value after "so many years" for the mainstream adult audience will give it that added push.

So unless this film is just that horrible in being a bomb (where not even the action scenes and special effects can save a horrible plot), and looking at his past involvement with films, if there's ever a big budget of over $100 million (this film already has a $125 million budget), he certainly delivers the revenue the companies are looking for of at least around $400 million.

[Jester]

It'll make money....much like the Transformers movies. It might not be a critical or fan darling, but it'll make a lot of money.

[Puddinpop]

Originally Posted by Jester

It'll make money....much like the Transformers movies. It might not be a critical or fan darling, but it'll make a lot of money.

Absolutely.. I also think it will perform the way Transformers did. Financially anyway. I just don't understand why these sites predict such a low turnout.. I hope this film has a breakout performance.

[Pondslider]

I'm skeptical that it will do worse than GI Joe domestically but way better overseas when TMNT movies have never done that well in foreign markets.

[MajorViolence]

I really don't see this making Transformers money. This will make money, for sure, but it's not going to shatter any records.

[Zulithe]

I can't see it topping $200m domestic, I think the $150 is a realistic goal.

Thing about Transformers is it has the "cool cars" thing going for it, lots of people love movies with that element to it. Fast and the Furious series as another example. Makes for a great date movie. But kinda-ugly looking mutant turtles? Maybe less so for the average joe.

As a franchise, I definitely prefer TMNT, but I don't think it has the perfect storm of elements to make it a huge blockbuster on the TF level.

[Bob]

If it made that amount I think Paramount would be very happy. Especially if they managed to keep the budget below 150 million.

[graphic_content]

Originally Posted by Puddinpop

Absolutely.. I also think it will perform the way Transformers did. Financially anyway. I just don't understand why these sites predict such a low turnout.. I hope this film has a breakout performance.

I would love it if this film just blew fans out of the water - perhaps because expectations are low, it might just surprise us.

hopefully.

[Shark_Blade]

$400 million seems about right.

[Bob]

As I’ve said before I cannot see this film outright flopping. If Paramount managed to keep the budget below 150 million dollars (which is a bizarrely moderate budget in this day and age for this type of film), then I think profit is assured.

[CyberCubed]

It's going to bomb. I predict less than movie 3 and 4.

[TheSkeletonMan939]

It likely won't beat Guardians, (and if it does it won't be by much) especially if that film will only be in its second week.

The film will probably have a strong enough start, but will quickly decline in the following weeks.

[Warhorse]

I just can't see this thing clearing 80 million domestic. Maybe 100 million overseas, but I don't know how big TMNT is OS.

[Puddinpop]

Originally Posted by graphic_content

I would love it if this film just blew fans out of the water - perhaps because expectations are low, it might just surprise us.

hopefully.

I think it will. This film might very well gross triple its budget. Curiosity recognition and nostalgia alone will push it over the 300 mil mark : ). I just cant wait for it to actually happen so these magazines can eat their words.

[hitmonkey]

Originally Posted by Warhorse

I just can't see this thing clearing 80 million domestic. Maybe 100 million overseas, but I don't know how big TMNT is OS.

I think it'll do G.I. Joe money, but that's about it. I don't know where anyone is getting this idea that it can be some colossal box office juggernaut based strictly on the popularity of the franchise. Half of the people the franchise is so popular with have hated this film from the second Michael Bay opened his mouth. I know plenty of casual nostalgic Turtles fans who have no desire to see this movie, and there are countless hardcore fans on the internet who clearly won't be paying any money to watch this thing.

Let's put it this way - Captain America: The Winter Soldier had nothing but positive hype surrounding it since it was announced, it was a follow-up to Cap's story arc from The Avengers, and quite frankly it's a Marvel film in general. Now, it's sitting at $213 million after three weeks and will basically be capping off next week with the release of The Amazing Spider-Man 2, and then a couple weeks later with X-Men for sure. If something with as much positive buzz and momentum as Cap 2 is only going to crack $250 or so, there isn't a chance in hell this TMNT film does anything close to some of these outlandish predictions of $300 or $400 million. I'm giving it $150 at best, and I'll gladly eat my words if I'm wrong, but I don't count on it.

[Bry]

Here's a fact: no movie released in August has ever cracked $300 million domestic total gross. Only four have ever surpassed $200 million.

Take a look at the top grossers for July releases and you'll see that expectations in August are much lower.

G.I. Joe level or lower is a good bet.

[Bob]

With all due respect nobody ever said 300 million domestic was happening. Not many films make that kind of money. It will certainly far exceed 100 million overseas. It will exceed 200 million overseas. It will more than likely get to at least 100 million domestically. I think that it will end up doing between 300 and 350 worldwide. If the budget didn’t go over 130 million, then Paramount will be satisfied with that. A moderate success.

General rule of thumb is that a film needs to make at least twice its budget to be considered a success.

[Redeemer]

Originally Posted by Bry

Here's a fact: no movie released in August has ever cracked $300 million domestic total gross. Only four have ever surpassed $200 million.

Take a look at the top grossers for July releases and you'll see that expectations in August are much lower.

G.I. Joe level or lower is a good bet.

this movie needs to be moved up a month