Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

[TigerClaw]

Box Office Mojo has posted an article containing the Box Office Predictions to several of the big Summer Movies for 2014, Which includes TMNT.
http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3826&p=.htm

11. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (August 8 ) : With the potential to add to already impressive toy sales, it makes financial sense to bring the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles back to the big screen. The first teaser left something to be desired, though, and the mid-August release date is tricky (with Guardians a week before, can this really break out?). It's possible that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles performs on par with 2009 toy adaptation G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra ($150.2 million), but for now we're betting lower on it. (Domestic: $130 million, Foreign: $255 million)

[Xav]

That seems about right. Unfortunately that would be enough for a sequel.

[Refractive Reflections]

Based on Micheal Bay's box office performance and with TMNT being a previously established franchise (similarly with Transformers), I'm guessing around $550 million. (Basically a little higher than the article predicted: $385 million) The nostalgia factor, the Nick show being out (Nick advertising it to kids, and thus them wanting their parents to take them), and the mere curiosity value after "so many years" for the mainstream adult audience will give it that added push.

So unless this film is just that horrible in being a bomb (where not even the action scenes and special effects can save a horrible plot), and looking at his past involvement with films, if there's ever a big budget of over $100 million (this film already has a $125 million budget), he certainly delivers the revenue the companies are looking for of at least around $400 million.

[Jester]

It'll make money....much like the Transformers movies. It might not be a critical or fan darling, but it'll make a lot of money.

[Puddinpop]

Originally Posted by Jester

It'll make money....much like the Transformers movies. It might not be a critical or fan darling, but it'll make a lot of money.

Absolutely.. I also think it will perform the way Transformers did. Financially anyway. I just don't understand why these sites predict such a low turnout.. I hope this film has a breakout performance.

[Pondslider]

I'm skeptical that it will do worse than GI Joe domestically but way better overseas when TMNT movies have never done that well in foreign markets.

[graphic_content]

Originally Posted by Puddinpop

Absolutely.. I also think it will perform the way Transformers did. Financially anyway. I just don't understand why these sites predict such a low turnout.. I hope this film has a breakout performance.

I would love it if this film just blew fans out of the water - perhaps because expectations are low, it might just surprise us.

hopefully.

[ranger_scout]

Paramount was also smart to move the film from June 6 to August 8 because Edge of Tomorrow, which opens the same weekend that this movie was going to debut is not tracking very well. It was also smart to avoid competition from this films listed below.

Moviegoers right now are focused more on upcoming titles “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” “Transformers: Age of Extinction” and “Maleficent,” according to Phil Contrino, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/wa...es-1201183917/

Guardians of the Galaxy which opens a week earlier might debut strong, but it will most likely have a steep drop in its second weekend.

Originally Posted by Xav

That seems about right. Unfortunately that would be enough for a sequel.

G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra made $150 million domestically against a budget of $175 million, but its foreign grosses, which brought its worldwide total to $302 million, and home video sales helped it turn a profit and green-light a sequel. I'm sure that will happen with this film as well and how well the merchandise sells will also depend on a sequel too.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Guardians of the Galaxy which opens a week earlier might debut strong, but it will most likely have a steep drop in its second weekend.

What's this prediction based on?

Here's a list of the biggest second-week box office drops. There are some exceptions, but I'd say a majority of these are movies that weren't very good, or flash-in-the-pan stuff like concert movies, or generally stuff that would have had poor word-of-mouth at the time. Anything's possible, but I'm more optimistic that GotG will have rather good word-of-mouth, if anything.

[chrisdude]

I really don't know what most of those movies are. But, a lot of times, nerd stuff has a big drop. Movies with a niche fanbase. They all go see it when it comes out, and nobody else cares. I remember people being super hyped about Watchmen, and that movie made money for exactly three days, and stopped.

[ranger_scout]

Originally Posted by Bry

What's this prediction based on?

Here's a list of the biggest second-week box office drops. There are some exceptions, but I'd say a majority of these are movies that weren't very good, or flash-in-the-pan stuff like concert movies, or generally stuff that would have had poor word-of-mouth at the time. Anything's possible, but I'm more optimistic that GotG will have rather good word-of-mouth, if anything.

Superhero type films usually have large drops in their second weekend if its either due to word of mouth or competition from other releases. Look what happened to Man of Steel, Hulk, and Green Lantern. Not only did word-of-mouth hurt Man of Steel, but tough competition from Monsters University and World War Z hurt it. A non-superhero type film this year, Godzilla, opened to $93.2 million, but suffered a 66.8% because X-Men: Days of Future Past opening the following week. And finally, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 broke many box office records in its opening weekend, but it declined 72% the following weekend since Captain America: The Winter Soldier had debuted that same weekend.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Leolead

Seriously Why do you guys always defend GOTG?

And what makes you think GOTG will have good WOM?, What makes you think it's even going to be good?

It has very strong marketing and trailers, it's based on some highly-regarded source material, and the director and producers have a great track record.

Here's a question back: why is it you've been jumping to argue against GotG so often?

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Superhero type films usually have large drops in their second weekend if its either due to word of mouth or competition from other releases. Look what happened to Man of Steel, Hulk, and Green Lantern.

In fairness, those three movies had mixed word-of-mouth at best. Same goes for Amazing Spider-Man 2.

Compare that to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which was very highly-regarded and dominated the box office for three weekends straight. I'm not arguing that GotG is going to match its performance (it won't), but if it's genuinely good and has great word-of-mouth, it has a much better chance of staying afloat longer.

[Leolead]

Originally Posted by Bry

It has very strong marketing and trailers, it's based on some highly-regarded source material, and the director and producers have a great track record.

Here's a question back: why are you always jumping to argue against GotG?

Because people are always willing to defend GOTG, just because the trailers were good, i'm sure if TMNT had better marketing people would flock to see TMNT regardless of how they look, kids will always like TMNT better than some tree *I mean groot, and some raccoon, a green lady, a boring outlaw, a green painted wrestler, just don't understand the fascination with them

[The Boston Ninja Turtle]

Originally Posted by Leolead

And what makes you think GOTG will have good WOM?, What makes you think it's even going to be good?

what makes you think TMNT will other than you want it too?

[SwiftNinjaFox]

Originally Posted by Leolead

Seriously Why do you guys always defend GOTG?

And what makes you think GOTG will have good WOM?, What makes you think it's even going to be good?

Mainly because what they've shown had been pretty good at looking good while still not revealing much. They've been trickling out footage and showing some gags and jokes, giving an overall feel for the film.

Why will it have good word of mouth, why do people think it will be good?

In Whedon we trust.

Originally Posted by Leolead

Because people are always willing to defend GOTG, just because the trailers were good, i'm sure if TMNT had better marketing people would flock to see TMNT regardless of how they look, kids will always like TMNT better than some tree *I mean groot, and some raccoon, a green lady, a boring outlaw, a green painted wrestler, just don't understand the fascination with them

Oh shiiiiiiiiiiii

Did you just call Rocket a raccoon? *stays away from Leo and looks around for incoming gunfire*


For the record, because of the movies, my friend's 7 year old daughter is totally into everything Marvel. She knows who the Guardians are from the Avengers cartoon. She can tell you all about the Infinity Gauntlet. She knows nothing about TMNT and has no interest in it at all, nor do his other three kids.

Yes, I have already shamed him for poor geek parenting.

[ranger_scout]

Back in April, Wall Street Cheat Sheet listed the it as one of 12 blockbusters that will burn up the box office this summer. They had this to say:

There’s already a lot of buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. It’s the 8th ranked film on IMDB’s MovieMeter, which means it’s a highly searched term this week, a full four months before it’s due to be released.

Originally a comic book, the ninja turtles were first adapted for screen in 1990. That first film was a commercial success, spawning sequels in 1991 and 1993. Another film for the franchise didn’t follow until 2007, and unlike the previous films, was completely computer generated. Given its low production budget — just $34 million — the film didn’t exactly ‘bomb,’ but it barely ranked in the top 50 films that year, a far cry from a blockbuster. With the king of blockbusters, Michael Bay, behind the upcoming film, it’s fair to say expectations for the reboot are higher.

As demonstrated in 2007, there will always be an audience for the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Fortunately, young men in their teens and twenties are the biggest theater-going demographic, and they also happen to be the generation that grew up with the ninja turtles, on film and on TV, as action figures and Halloween costumes. With the same man behind the Transformers franchise lending his expertise to the turtles reboot, and adding Megan Fox for good measure, it seems likely Paramount will have a hit on its hands come August.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/entertai...tml/?a=viewall

[TrickOrTreater]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Back in April, Wall Street Cheat Sheet listed the it as one of 12 blockbusters that will burn up the box office this summer. They had this to say:



http://wallstcheatsheet.com/entertai...tml/?a=viewall

Never heard of 'em.

Here's all the sites either predicting mediocrity, failure or with the movie not even on their radar.

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Summe...-42837-p4.html

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3826

http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/...rm_predictions

http://www.imdb.com/list/z-adK7H6lL8/

http://www.hitfix.com/news/summer-bo...ers-maleficent

http://www.slashfilm.com/2014-summer-movie-wager/

http://www.thewire.com/entertainment...e-hits/356747/

http://boxofficefrontier.wordpress.c...fice-forecast/

[RedRocBoy]

Hard to predict. I just hope it makes enough to warrant a sequel. So hyped for this movie.

[pennydreadful]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

I did not get to post this in the thread that discussed Johnny Knoxville and Tony Shalhoub joining the cast, but I'm not surprised that Knoxville was given the job after reading this the other day.

It's clear that Paramount believes that his success in Jackass might help the movie and bring some adult audiences. We'll see if he has a big enough fan base.

http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/para...rst-look-deal/

This is one of the things that makes me wildly nervous about the movie. I don't wish to be snobby about people who enjoy Jackass and movies like Bad Grandpa, I really don't (so no offense intended to anybody who does enjoy them), it's just... one of those things where I don't understand the appeal, and as such, it makes me wonder once again who the target audience for this movie is meant to be.

That being said, I wasn't happy with the news that Jason Biggs was going to be NickLeo's voice either, and he ended up nailing it - so here's hoping that I'm proven wrong.

[TheSkeletonMan939]

If this movie even makes back the cost of its budget ($125 million according to Wikipedia) it still probably won't make enough to warrant a sequel.

If this movie does well, no one will be more surprised than Paramount.

There's just about two months left until this movie comes out; we've got one crappo trailer and a bunch of leaked images as the promotion for this film. Now, is that enough to make the average joe aware of a Ninja Turtles movie? Probably not.