Mutant Mayhem Box Office Prediction

[terrorblade]

So how well do you think this movie will perform at the box office?

Outside of the general fandom, I feel like there are very few people talking about this movie. The toys seem to be selling well but I'm not sure how much of it would translate to ticket sales.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this movie but I have a feeling this won't do that well in the box office, for example Into the Spider-Verse only grossed $384 million while being positively received by fans and critics.

I'm guessing the movie will be at the $250m - $350m range.

[Coola Yagami]

Might do at least better than BayTurtles.

[terrorblade]

Originally Posted by Coola Yagami

Might do at least better than BayTurtles.

I would be surprised if this movie came close to Bay 2014 numbers. People were mocking that movie since the first trailer but at least they were talking about it, Mutant Mayhem seems to be going under most people's radar so far.

Besides many movies are underperforming this year, $493 million box office will surely put it within the top 10 grossing films of the year.

[Powder]

I think it will perform pretty well. Probably better than the Platinum Dunes one.

The TMNT groups on FB are all abuzz, the vast majority of TMNT fans I know are excited, & I've even heard friends that don't like TMNT express interest in it. Folks around here are entitled to their negative opinions but between the star power, Spiderverse aesthetic appeal, the strongest root of inspiration being the old Playmates toys, the movie debut of many ironic characters, a very thorough/expensive marketing campaign, & a lot of turtle fans wanting their palette cleansed from Rise/Bayturtles, it's gonna pop, I think.

I see plenty of complaints, sure, but it's mostly about April's appearance & Don's voice. Not so much the art style, sense of humor, etc. In other words, I don't think the issues people take with it will prevent them from paying to see it.

[Andrew NDB]

From the other thread:

Oof, it's hard to say. I mean, we know what a CGI animated TMNT movie did 16 years ago, 14 years after a reasonably respected TMNT trilogy had been released. It did 50 million stateside and another 50 internationally. What a new CGI animated TMNT movie will do only 7 years after a fairly universally reviled pair of TMNT movies came out... I dunno. I have to believe it'll do at least a bit better than TMNT 2007 (if for no other reason than Nick will market it a lot better), but I guess we're gambling on the humor push, kid voices, "look" and an overweight black April connecting more with people? Plastering Rogen's name on it (which by his latest movies, is NO guarantee of financial success)? Like, what even is the hook with people/kids who don't know or care about the TMNT? "Look, kids! Weirdness!"? idk...

If I had to speculate, I'd guess maybe only slightly better than Shazam 2 numbers, and that's being very kind. Maybe 70, 75 domestic, and another 50-70 internationally, with a total haul of 170 million at the most. Internationally they just don't seem to care much about TMNT, and CGI animated TMNT even less. And with overweight black April, you can forget about significant Chinese dollars, if any. And damn, Mutant Mayhem's production budget is 200 million!* Even higher than Into the Shadows. Figure another 100 million for marketing after kickbacks... yeesh! We'll see, but it's hard not to predict Nick taking it on the chin with this one.

*This might be fake. As others have stated, yeah, it's probably more in the 120 range. Though they might have been packing the marketing budget into it with the 200 number, which appears to be substantial (the marketing).

[ZariusTwo]

Originally Posted by Powder

The TMNT groups on FB are all abuzz, the vast majority of TMNT fans I know are excited, & I've even heard friends that don't like TMNT express interest in it.

Niche interest Facebook groups, Friends and casuals don't make up a big percentage of the real world, who haven't given TMNT the time of day in years.

This is also the era of the flopbuster, nobody is going out to see a lot of movies despite the mass hype marketing machines behind it. There is no way of promoting the film with SAG-AFTRA on strike and talk shows cancelled.

It's screwed.

[Vicky82]

I assume this is for box office for the US. it won't beat Spiderverse movie, so maybe about $250m - $350m.

[terrorblade]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

I assume this is for box office for the US. it won't beat Spiderverse movie, so maybe about $250m - $350m.

This is for the worldwide box office and I was talking about the first Spider-Verse movie. It didn't have amazing numbers but it's still successful enough to warrant a sequel. I guess everything is relative to the budget, and I really don't think the $200 million budget for this movie is true.

[Barkworm]

I'm not sure whether it'll be success. I'm assuming it cost about as much as the latest Puss on Boots (about 100 million). If it can manage a 30 million+ weekend (which early tracking suggests is realistic) and grow some legs, it might make about a 120 million in the US. Then, it needs to make twice that amount in the rest of the world to be really considered successful. But that's close to the numbers of the latest Spider-Man and I doubt it will make that much.

However, it's not going to be a huge bomb, like some people here are expecting/hoping. These guys have been doing their homework okay so far.

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by terrorblade

This is for the worldwide box office and I was talking about the first Spider-Verse movie. It didn't have amazing numbers but it's still successful enough to warrant a sequel. I guess everything is relative to the budget, and I really don't think the $200 million budget for this movie is true.

Actually I didn't read what you said about the Spiderverse movie and I was on about 2nd Spiderverse movie which did $362,747,609 in the US ($647,360,157 worldwide)

But If we going by Worldwide box office, i'll stick with $250m - $350m.

[IndigoErth]

Moderately fine enough. The only advertising I've ever seen has been on Nick channels, so I'm not sure how widely it's even known about. I find that rather strange. And in an era with many who just subscribe to streaming packages without ads? They should have put the toys in stores and done far more promos and product tie-ins WAY sooner. Edit: Esp now that some common ways for cast to help promote a movie is dead in the water.

Only way I think it will do at least moderately okay is because it'll be August, hot out, the kids have been out of school for a while, which is probably growing tiresome for the adults around them, and a kid friendly movie to get them to sit still and be quiet for a little while may be exactly what sells it.

[Shark_Blade]

Idgaf about box office. Did the first tmnt reach 1 billion? No. Did Fight Club? No, it even flopped horribly but it doesn’t stop being great and still remembered today.

[terrorblade]

Originally Posted by Shark_Blade

Idgaf about box office. Did the first tmnt reach 1 billion? No. Did Fight Club? No, it even flopped horribly but it doesn’t stop being great and still remembered today.

It does matter if you want a sequel, I think this film needs to earn at least $350 million to warrant a sequel. I think I've seen rumors before that Mutant Mayhem will get an animated series so maybe they're not planning to make a sequel at all, and seeing that the toys are selling well enough, maybe they will continue the animated series route even if the movie flops.

[Barkworm]

If the new 70 million budget number is true, I take back what I said earlier: This will easily make money. Pre-sales are supposedly good and according to box office pro it continues to track clearly better than Elemental. That one had a way higher budget though and made more than 300 million worldwide. Mutant Mayhem would probably need about only 250 million to break even.

[IMJ]

I tend to agree that this will make money out of the gate. The real question is what will happen after opening weekend once the "must-seers" go on day one.

[Andrew NDB]

If the budget is 80 and they're projecting 27-36 million for weekend 1 (because they are)... I dunno. It may end up exactly as I predicted or worse.

[Cowabung-Gal]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

If the budget is 80 and they're projecting 27-36 million for weekend 1 (because they are)... I dunno. It may end up exactly as I predicted or worse.

One can only hope

[Zulithe]

I will be comparing it to Into The Spider-Verse in terms of my box office expectations. Though turtles aren't as popular as Spider-Man, so I think it will gross less.

ITSV grossed 384m worldwide with about half of that being in the USA. It cost 90m to make.

If MM cost 70m then it doesn't even have to make as much to be as successful. Afterall, TMNT is a brand that has rode heavily on toys and other merch, so box office is not the whole story.

I'm trying to set expectations reasonable, so I'm hoping for around 150m USA and 150m foreign. It's very possible that it could do like 100m in each instead. But even at that number, it probably would be considered a minor success when all factors are accounted for.

[Barkworm]

One thing all haters are going to enjoy is that with Barbie's ongoing success MM is 99 % guaranteed to not open at number 1.

[Roseangelo]

The poll options should not have been so ambitious.