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Old 03-31-2020, 04:37 PM   #201
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US death toll now at 3,415 and higher than China. Quite tragic in the jump there, although I don't believe China's figures anyhow. It's going to hit 10k by end of April I bet, or very much sooner, maybe Easter.
The experts believe we will probably be at 60k by the end of April. It’s sad!
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:29 PM   #202
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Seems a little hard to believe, but with the way new cases are taking off with over 20k+ new ones a day now, maybe that's not so crazy.

From the time my state started finding cases it took about two weeks to start losing some of them. (319 cases, 10 deaths as of today. Small state, but most of that on my end.) So what's 20k+ new cases a day in the nation going to result in within a couple of weeks?

Stay safe out there, guys.





All I ask is that my late April b-day get to be spent with the family all still alive and well...and maybe a local restaurant with my fave pizza still operating and delivering.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:55 PM   #203
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20k a day is a flat rate of growth. They're expecting exponential growth until it runs out of new hosts.

That's why the quarantine is important. If coronavirus were a forest fire, you'd want to keep it away from the trees. In these case, we're the trees. Until we get a vaccine, that and hand washing is what we're left with.

God, I miss New York style pizza. Hope you get it, Indigo! Happy birthday, while I'm at it.
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Old 03-31-2020, 11:22 PM   #204
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I said this elsewhere, but realistically, nobody should count on any "relief" until a year from now. NEXT April, maybe, possibly.

Think about it: People are hoping that the shutdown/quarantine/whatever is over by Summer, yet they have absolutely nothing to base that on except "hope", which is not a quantifiable commodity. So that's PROBABLY nothing but wishful thinking. But regardless of that, September/October is when everyone is going to get their normal coughs and sniffles, except this year nobody's gonna take even the slightest chance after All This, so as soon as one person gets sick, we're all right back to where we are now. They'll probably have better testing and more resources by then, but people will still freak out once people start coughing in large numbers. Cold and flu season will run through April or so. By then, one would hope that they'll consistently be able to determine who's sick with what, but like I said, that's the absolute earliest I expect anything close to "normal".

So yeah, if you wanna make plans, make 'em for 2021. This year's over with and done.

Not an ideal solution, I know. We're not prepared for a 12-month shutdown, millions of people are going to lose their homes and a lot of them are gonna die... not from the virus, but from homelessness and starvation. It's not a sustainable situation, but... It's the only realistic thing to expect.

If I'm wrong, great for everyone. But realistically... Yeah, it's gonna be like this for a year.

Good f*cking luck.
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Old 04-01-2020, 12:23 AM   #205
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I said this elsewhere, but realistically, nobody should count on any "relief" until a year from now. NEXT April, maybe, possibly.

Think about it: People are hoping that the shutdown/quarantine/whatever is over by Summer, yet they have absolutely nothing to base that on except "hope", which is not a quantifiable commodity.
What's troubling to me is that anyone who is trying to be the least bit optimistic about things are being stampeded out. Largely with stuff like, "You really think June/July? You're WRONG and a bad person! We're all/mostly gonna die/get infected!" kind of stuff. It's also troubling that largely the people saying that the loudest are mostly the same people that were saying even 3 or 4 months ago on social media (unrelated to coronavirus) stuff equivalent to like, "Yeah! Bring down the whole system! It's broken and let's start anew! Revolution!" You know what I mean?

It's a complicated base problem. Half the country has been pretty skeptical about the news for about 3 years now, because it's always been wrong. The other half, believes it absolutely. The problem with the right is that even when there's absolute truth in there or even a measure of it, they're going to be naturally skeptical. This is the fault of the media. The problem with the left is that they're going to continue wolfing it down, undeterred. And the name of the game in the news is scare tactics across the board, because that's what sells.

Which isn't to downplay anything.

Anyhoo, today was the first day I woke up and honestly didn't even realize what day it was until I went and checked. I've just been watching old Star Trek shows that make me smile, working out, eating questionable food, and resisting the urge to watch this "Tiger King" thing everyone on social media seems to want everyone to check out. Apparently it's getting very bad at my former job... whole clean sweep, it seems. Ongoing tooth problem (same one I had the root canal/crown on) is becoming more and more problematic and it sucks that I can't get it taken care of anywhere. I can't even eat some foods, because my mouth fills with this sour taste that emanates from it around the gumline and I get a gag reflex with every bite after the first few. It doesn't hurt or anything, it's just this constant sour taste. Also it's entered my brain that yeah, no haircuts anywhere, probably for a while. Yeesh. I can probably mitigate things with my beard trimmer for a while but eventually that's not gonna fly.

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Old 04-01-2020, 01:22 AM   #206
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I’m all for optimism. I think my posting here in general backs that up. But they’ve clearly stated a vaccine is at least a year away. Which I guess they mean from March when trials started.

The only optimistic thing can think of is maybe before then another medicine or treatment can be used to lower the severity so recovery is not a wait and see. Like if you get it something can actually be done against it.

I have always hated politics. I never get into any political discussions because it’s possibly the worst topic in the world. I’ll admit I’m indifferent to the whole thing (which I realize itself is some kind of stance). I only bring it up because I see it keeps getting combined with this this.

This is a health problem. Health should be the main concern with this. I don’t watch the news all day or anything it’s just unavoidable. July is not nearly enough time for it calm down. If that means delaying movies and other entertainment that’s perfectly fine with me.

Nobody needs to watch “The News” to see a virus outbreak with no vaccine that’s spread like wildfire and has caused thousands of deaths is really bad.
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Old 04-01-2020, 01:29 AM   #207
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I’m all for optimism. I think my posting here in general backs that up. But they’ve clearly stated a vaccine is at least a year away.
Is when the vaccine is readily available truly the goal post, though? I can't believe the idea is to stay at home and shut all businesses down until there's one available. Though of course, the availability of one would be the final nail in the coffin of it, for sure.

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Old 04-01-2020, 02:09 AM   #208
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I'm simply a realist with a rather dim view of human nature. Seeing how it's playing out Now is how I determine where things will be Then.

Come October, everyone will be freaking out about the first person who coughs. Right back to flooding the hospitals. "We can't take any chances!" Right back to being cooped up inside, because what's the alternative? "Go about your business and hope you don't get sick... and if you DO, that's it a normal cold and not the virus"? Not happening. If it's too dangerous to operate under that mentality Right Now, it'll be too dangerous Then. So again, WHAT good would it do, at all, to even make an attempt to go back to normal anytime before NEXT cold and flu season? Any businesses that reopen in August would be shuttered again by November, or until they have a foolproof way to filter out the COVID-19 sufferers from the "regular" sick people. It would be a colossal waste of time and resources.

I hate it, but there really IS no reasonable alternative except to wait until next year from now before expecting anything to go back to "normal". It simply can't. And even that assumes that the virus doesn't mutate again, which it might. A "start-stop-start-stop" approach to recovery simply isn't going to do any good, and in fact might make things worse. By April 2021, things MIGHT be more or less resolved. Before that, total crapshoot.

Nobody wants it over with more than me, believe me. This cost me my career, which I worked very hard to establish and was finally making some headway in. But that's over with, and my entire line of work has been pretty much eliminated by this situation. I won't have a job to go back to, and I know that. My entire future is incredibly uncertain. The upside of that is, at this point, I have little left to lose, so I've come to accept that what it is right now is how it's going to remain for a very long time.

My only problem with "optimism" in this case is my problem with it in just about every case: It's got nothing to do with Objective Reality. "Wish in one hand, Sh*t in the other, see which one gets filled first." Sure, we all want this to end. Tomorrow, if possible. But it won't. "Hope", in this case, is slow torture. If EVER there was a time to prepare for the absolute worst, so as to be pleasantly surprised later if it turns out not to be that bad, THIS is that time.

I personally lost track of days about a week and a half ago. They're all the same now. Makes no difference.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:16 AM   #209
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Is when the vaccine is readily available truly the goal post, though? I can't believe the idea is to stay at home and shut all businesses down until there's one available. Though of course, the availability of one would be the final nail in the coffin of it, for sure.
I mean if I gotta risk death or catching it and spreading it to others that could die just to see a movie...it’s not worth it. You could have it and not even know.

Right now we can only try to lower the spread as much as possible. That’s our only defense. Which is pretty scary. Things like food and other necessities already require people to go out.

You can’t force something to be normal. Keeping the entertainment business going like nothings wrong just invites more people who don’t take it seriously and inaccurately portrays the situation as not so bad.

What’s wrong putting things like entertainment on hold? They’re not being totally canceled.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:30 AM   #210
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I'm not even talking about that, but I only bemoan the loss of entertainment beyond certain dates that seem reasonable to me. And even then, maybe it's just me being a whiny bastard.

Because sh**. If we don't come out of this by, say, September, I don't foresee future trillion dollar stimulus packages pulling us out of this. And even if they do... that smells like irreparable damage. Not to you or me, but the businesses we are employable to. I continually wonder if we're approaching this in the right way.

And again, there are the very vocal wolves at the gate who are like, "Yeah! F*** it all! This is what we've been waiting for!" or people simply hoping that any 'ole person can vote by mail in November. Just saying... this seems a perfect storm of scallwaggery. And I don't even really care if Biden gets elected or not.

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Old 04-01-2020, 02:31 AM   #211
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Several things scare me about this, and I'm just trying not too think too much about it.

For one thing, I live in NJ, which is in danger of catching up to NY's numbers soon because people won't stop being stupid. All last week, numerous people all over NJ were arrested for having parties and outdoor weddings and Lord knows what else, often with attendees of 50 people or more. When we've seen this in the past, in other places, nearly every single one of those people ended up being a carrier, and thus in turn a transmitter. So I expect that we're about to have a huge spike over here, as well.

For another thing, I live in a house with my wife and her parents. Obviously, the more people in one household, the greater exponential risk.

My wife's grandmother lives alone, about ten minutes away. She's in her 80s, and suffered a very serious broken bone in her foot a couple of months ago which she's still recovering from, thus my wife's mother has to go visit and assist her daily. They both are indeed taking the situation very seriously, but as they've said, "What are we supposed to do? We don't have any choice." And since she's out, she usually makes trips to the store as well. My wife also makes a run to the store for something every couple of days, although her car isn't running right at the moment, so there's that. So far, no issues, but it is a numbers game, and I'm concerned that we're about to hit a spike AND most people who already have it don't know it yet. So I just keep hoping that nothing ends up happening. We're taking as many reasonable precautions as we can, but... well, no system is perfect.

All of this has me very concerned. Every time my wife coughs, I start listening really close. Every time I clear my throat, I get nervous. Everybody seems perfectly fine, and I hope it stays that way, but I'm really nervous about something going wrong. My wife, in particular, is a huge "Doesn't worry enough about something until it's too late" type of person.

Sigh. This whole thing sucks.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:42 AM   #212
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My wife works in heathcare... which means I very much pay attention to when she coughs, too. However, now that I'm out of work... I guess this just means I shoo my mom away when she wants to visit. Which she wouldn't want to hear and she's obtuse about going out. Not much else.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:42 AM   #213
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I'm not even talking about that, but I only bemoan the loss of entertainment beyond certain dates that seem reasonable to me. And even then, maybe it's just me being a whiny bastard.

Because sh**. If we don't come out of this by, say, September, I don't foresee future trillion dollar stimulus packages pulling us out of this. And even if they do... that smells like irreparable damage. Not to you or me, but the businesses we are employable to. I continually wonder if we're approaching this in the right way.
What’s another way? I don’t see the problem with just delaying things.

September? What about the Fall season seems like it should start to get better? That’s a serious question not sarcasm because nothing points or suggests that’s enough time. If a vaccine was on the verge of release I’d agree.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:47 AM   #214
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What’s another way? I don’t see the problem with just delaying things.

September? What about the Fall season seems like it should start to get better? That’s a serious question not sarcasm because nothing points or suggests that’s enough time. If a vaccine was on the verge of release I’d agree.
Again, not talking about that. I'm talking about the bigger picture. Businesses forced to stay open because of licensing fees, etc. (costs more to shut down and reopen than just close entirely, which I'm seeing), in the hopes of weathering out the storm. Which they can do for a couple of months, maybe 3. Beyond that? We need to find another way.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:51 AM   #215
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Because sh**. If we don't come out of this by, say, September, I don't foresee future trillion dollar stimulus packages pulling us out of this. And even if they do... that smells like irreparable damage. Not to you or me, but the businesses we are employable to. I continually wonder if we're approaching this in the right way.
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Again, not talking about that. I'm talking about the bigger picture. Businesses forced to stay open because of licensing fees, etc. (costs more to shut down and reopen than just close entirely, which I'm seeing), in the hopes of weathering out the storm. Which they can do for a couple of months, maybe 3. Beyond that? We need to find another way.
It won't, but what else can be done? Even kids are dying from this sh*t, now. It's not just something the "old and feeble" need to worry about anymore. Plus, it keeps mutating. Short of "set the whole world on fire", there's nothing else we can do to try and contain this, other than exactly what we're doing.

No, money won't solve it. Yes, many businesses will fall. Yes, millions and millions of people will have no choice whatsoever but to be homeless or commit suicide. You're going to read about people in large numbers, killing their own children and then committing suicide, because they have literally nothing. Make no mistake, things are going to get REALLY bad, unless things suddenly do a complete 180 in a month or so and stay that way, which I'm absolutely not counting on.

All of this is now unavoidable. The world isn't ending, but it's over as we knew it. Most people MIGHT make it, but a lot of people simply won't. A LOT of people are going to die, and not from the virus itself. I've been saying that literally since Day One.

People need to start asking themselves the hard questions, Right NOW, about how much loss they're willing to accept before it's simply too much to endure, if for no other reason than so they're prepared for The Worst when that point comes. And a LOT of people who used to say "I can't understand why anyone would ever want to kill themselves" are suddenly going to have a much greater understanding of it, once they fully realize that no matter what, they're NOT getting back the life they used to have. Some people will find a way to endure, but mark my words, a LOT of them won't. You're right, the current situation isn't sustainable, and it's going to literally kill people.

Yes. Yes it is. Tragic.

Is any of it avoidable? I really don't think so. Millions of people are going to die no matter what we do or don't do, so it really just seems like splitting hairs. There IS a chance that more people might die from the virus than will from impending poverty and despair, so it's not really a chance we can take in good conscience. At least this way, we can say "We Tried." If we let everyone go back to work, and tons of people die from getting sick, everyone will say, "Should've stayed on lockdown."

Not every situation has a solution where people "win." This is Lose/Lose all the way. No good will come of this, except, maybe, a slightly more manageable population and a bit more foresight. But even that isn't a promise and is pretty morbid to look at as "the upside".

I'm past the point of caring about the political side. We're in a mess it'll take more than the next four years to fix, and any issues besides "recover from the pandemic" are completely irrelevant from now until Who Knows When. It really matters very little who "wins" at this point. I doubt anyone even WANTS the f*cking job, now. Policies and debates and whatnot matter very little in the grand scheme of things when it's been revealed that, at a very fundamental level, NOBODY "in charge" Has ANY idea about what the f*ck they're doing, or how to take care of anyone else but themselves. The whole f*cking world got caught with its pants down, with every "world leader" and local governor standing there going, "Duuuh, I'unno, maybe it won't be so bad here, I hope" like a moron. It's lucky there's not already riots; human beings generally don't react very well to discovering that everything they believe in is based on a ball of lies, after all. There IS no "government" or "authority", it's all just meaningless titles and words on paper.

So yeah, it doesn't really matter much, now. If the numbers keep rising, and it doesn't look like much in the way of progress is being made, it's only a matter of time until the guillotines come out, as it were, on a global scale. One would hope it does't get that bad, but... it might. At this point Biden has as much chance as Trump does of being skinned alive and eaten by his own "constituents", if he can't present a believable solution for this mess, which he can't. So like I said... doesn't matter. Nobody even wants the job, now. Why would they?

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September? What about the Fall season seems like it should start to get better? That’s a serious question not sarcasm because nothing points or suggests that’s enough time. If a vaccine was on the verge of release I’d agree.
Like I said, regular cold/flu season is going to cause even more chaos. Every single person who has a sniffle is going to rush to the hospital thinking that they're dying, and we'll be right back to where we are until it's all sorted out. That's why I'm quite certain that April 2021 is the absolute earliest we can "relax".

And after that, as I've mentioned, most of that "relaxing" will be sifting through what's left of our "society".
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:56 AM   #216
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So yeah, it doesn't really matter much, now. If the numbers keep rising, and it doesn't look like much in the way of progress is being made, it's only a matter of time until the guillotines come out, as it were, on a global scale. One would hope it does't get that bad, but... it might. At this point Biden has as much chance as Trump does of being skinned alive and eaten by his own "constituents", if he can't present a believable solution for this mess, which he can't. So like I said... doesn't matter. Nobody even wants the job, now. Why would they?
You sound about as drunk as I am at this minute. And I don't say that in a bad way. What the hell else are we supposed to do?

It'll be fine.
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Old 04-01-2020, 03:09 AM   #217
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HA, if ONLY I had money to spare for alcohol. I had to roll change for milk.

What are we supposed to do? Hold on tight and prepare for the worst. Hope to be one of the ones who doesn't have to end it all. Sounds morbid, but that's all I got.

From where I am, things will definitely be very tight, but her parents can (barely) manage the mortgage without needing anything from me, so we're not in imminent threat of homelessness. At least not at this moment. As much as I hate the situation here sometimes, we're actually slightly lucky. I'm comforted by the fact that, even if we had managed to get out of here at some point before this, we would have lost the place because of this situation, and they might have sold the house and moved out of state, at which point we'd be REALLY screwed. So yeah, if we weren't exactly where we are, I'd be incredibly panicked right now. Kinda glad that apartment I applied for last year didn't pan out. They're on a fixed income so as long as they can pay the mortgage we should be able to coast for the time being.

If it gets worse and stays bad for a really long time, well... like I said, I'm a Realist. I never planned to live forever. Things WERE finally, strongly moving in a more positive direction, but just like that, they're arguably worse than ever. Kinda getting too old to "start over" for the 80th time. It's exhausting, and I'll never be able to go back to working in the field I went to school for. If it looks like we'll be out on the streets at some point, well... I'm probably not gonna. Let's just put it like that.

But see, I always knew my own story wasn't gonna have a happy ending. I've had a lifetime to emotionally prepare for that. What saddens me is, a lot of people who thought they were "safe", are finally figuring out that no, they weren't "safe", they were LUCKY. And some of them aren't going to be able to weather the storm and come out the other side of it, specifically because they're not emotionally prepared to endure such hardship. I've NEVER been a "hopeful" person, and you can't well miss what you've never had, but seeing people who HAD hope lose it... well, it's demoralizing. I feel very, very bad for those people who never thought they'd have to lose everything. But I've said my whole life, most of this sh*t is just random chance and if your number is up, it's up.

We're in complete agreement that the more months go by without people going back to work, the worse off it'll be for everyone. But frankly, that's just something we need to accept at this point. Because again, one person coughs and it all gets shut down again. There IS no avoiding the bloodletting, at this point. We just have to ride out the wave and hope we survive.
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Old 04-01-2020, 03:09 AM   #218
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Again, not talking about that. I'm talking about the bigger picture. Businesses forced to stay open because of licensing fees, etc. (costs more to shut down and reopen than just close entirely, which I'm seeing), in the hopes of weathering out the storm. Which they can do for a couple of months, maybe 3. Beyond that? We need to find another way.
Oh you’re talking about the overall economy side of it.

It’s sad that smaller businesses are struggling but I don’t know what to say about that because there’s no tangible way to protect ourselves from the virus.

I think things like toilet paper and other stuff running out will start to go back to normal sooner since there’s no actual shortage of those things. Just high demand at the beginning because it happened so fast.
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Old 04-01-2020, 03:13 AM   #219
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HA, if ONLY I had money to spare for alcohol. I had to roll change for milk.
Aw, sh**. My bad.

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We're in complete agreement that the more months go by without people going back to work, the worse off it'll be fore everyone. But frankly, that's just something we need to accept at this point. Because again, one person coughs and it all gets shut down again. There IS no avoiding the bloodletting, at this point. We just have to ride out the wave and hope we survive.
I think you're being overly negative. Period, point blank. And I get it. But that's healthy. Obviously it's better to prepare for the worst and be surprised by the best, and all.

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Oh you’re talking about the overall economy side of it.

It’s sad that smaller businesses are struggling
Define small businesses. Obviously we think of "big business" as Amazon and eBay and stuff like that. And "small business" as maybe the mom and pop store on 5th street. This is an "all business" problem. Generally mandated by all states' governors. In fact, this is impacting the smaller businesses most. In that they won't be able to exist if this goes on more than a month or two. In fact, in the end... I'm no expert in these things and I'm certainly not the guy to do conspiracy... but maybe this wipes out all the little guys. To where when we come back, it's just Walmart. It's just Amazon. It's just X. Yeesh.

Last edited by Andrew NDB; 04-01-2020 at 03:22 AM.
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Old 04-01-2020, 03:19 AM   #220
Leo656
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Originally Posted by Wildcat View Post
I think things like toilet paper and other stuff running out will start to go back to normal sooner since there’s no actual shortage of those things. Just high demand at the beginning because it happened so fast.
One would hope. We still have some (mother-in-law is a CostCo member), but there's still f*ck-all nothing on the shelves everywhere you go.

One would THINK that once people saw that everything from f*cking filet mignon to chopped liver was still widely available, that they'd STOP hoarding the f*cking toilet paper (AND the macaroni and cheese ).

Like, you couldn't believe the spread at the Shop-Rite last week. Fresh chicken and giant turkeys and ham and pork chops and goddamn near everything, with a packed freezer section as well. But if you want "Kraft dinner" or to wipe your ass, you're f*ckin' beat. That sh*t blows my mind. Hopefully things at least settle down a little bit on that front. Most people probably have way more toilet paper than they need, so hopefully they'll let everyone else have a turn.

You can never have too much mac and cheese, though, so while I don't like that situation I understand it. I'd slit an infant's throat for a box of Kraft Three-Cheese right now and it hasn't even been two weeks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew NDB View Post
Aw, sh**. My bad.


I think you're being overly negative. Period, point blank. And I get it. But that's healthy. Obviously it's better to prepare for the worst and be surprised by the best, and all.
All good, man, no worries.

And we can hope, right? Like I've said before, being a "negative" pessimist is literally ALL Upside. Let's look at the numbers again!

- If you always expect the worst to come, you're usually proven correct. So at least you're prepared.
- You get to say "I told you so", which is always, always awesome, even in the worst of times.
- In the unlikely even that you're wrong, that's great! That means Good Things happened instead, and that's great for everyone, including the doomsayers. It's well worth sacrificing "I told you so" in exchange for a happy ending, law's yes. I don't think anyone would dispute that.

It's just a much safer and more comforting position to exist in, given that most things are terrible and most bad things get worse. But it's Win/Win either way! I could never, ever ken to the life of a "hopeful optimist", and all the soul-crushing disappointment that comes along with it. To always and forever want and hope for something to go right, and then it usually doesn't. Blech! Couldn't do it. Since my soul was already crushed at an early age, MOST of my life is either being proven right OR being pleasantly surprised. Both of those things are awesome!

Some people say it sounds exhausting, but from where I sit, it's more liberating than anything. I'm generally a pretty "happy" person, really... I just expect things to be bad/get worse, and they usually do. That's all. It's not like I sit around in despair or anything. More like a giant "Eh" shrug. Sh*t goes bad? "Eh, of course it did." It didn't get that bad? "Well that's great."

I'unno, works for me. Like I said, I'm simply prepared for the If and When. And I'd advise others to start some serious introspection on "personal loss" and exactly how much they're willing to endure, because a great many assumptions about themselves are going to be challenged and tested in the coming months.
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Last edited by Leo656; 04-01-2020 at 03:30 AM.
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