$100-Million Domestic?

[Kendamu]

So, I'm browsing around Superhero Hype's forums and I come across this:

Box Office Predictions - http://www.superherohype.com/forums/showthread.php?t=263981

In there, the following is said:

The filmmakers have stated that in order for the franchise to start anew and to get a sequel that WB is looking for $100 million domestic.


Do you guys think TMNT will make that kind of cash?

[Warhorse]

I'm doubtful. It would be lucky to make half that, in that's mainly because the studios aren't advertising it enough. I mean, there nothing on the tv, just a couple of movies are showing the trailer in the theaters.

[Kendamu]

Hopefully in this upcoming month they'll kick it up a notch with the advertising.

[Spitfire]

It's a kids movie don't undermine it. Kids movies clean up. It has a week until that stupid Disney movie comes out. I would love nothing more then to see TMNT beat out that garbage. I see it all over the TVs at work it looks horridly retarded.

[Cascadia]

That is just one prediction. I have seen a prediction at half of that. The original movie did not make much more than 100 million when it came out.

[Roseangelo]

The original movie made $135 million. I honestly think this movie can make at least that much. Even the crap CGI movies from recent years seem to easily break the $100 million mark.

[ThemanthatwouldbeRaphael]

If the WB makes with ads soon, then I could see it getting at least 100 mil.

I think it'll do pretty good it's first week, after that it'll come odwn to word of mouth.

[Kendamu]

I've already been telling people about it, but I'll start pushing it hardcore now to make up for the current lack of ads and website content.

[Spitfire]

They got posters at my movie theater. I know lots of people who haven't even seen a trailer who want to see it.

[raphaelprime]

I'm thinking the tv ads wont start til mid february. I mean, heck Ghost Rider tv spots didnt start til last sunday during the NFC and AFC championship games, 3 weeks before the movie is out. Thats generally how and when most ads start running for movies, with the exception of those like X-Men, Spidey, Pirates and such.

As far the 100 mil. prospect. I'm thinking well get around 65-75 mil, possibly 80 mil. Last year 4 of the top 10 box office grabbers were CGI, and 5 were Franchise movies. So im thinking we got a shot. Reguardless if it hits 100 mil. Im sure WB will still consider a sequel, since (according to Munroe and crew) Shredder is a possible option for a sequel, WB may feel that with Shred in the sequel it could do just as good and possibly pull in more of those who like him.

[gobo]

I'm willing to bet it goes like this, $100 mil GUARANTEES it a sequel. Less than than, and it gets shelved until they feel like giving it another go with a smaller budget and whatever other changes they deem necessary (like a replacement April & Donnie, the omission of Casey Jones, a teen martial artist sidekick, a 'flash in the pan' musical guest, the usual).

[twopinacoladas]

Honestly I think this movie has potential to do very well, there was a huge fanbase back in the day and there are still people who every now and then say something about the TMNT. It gets me by surpise because so many people associate TMNT with children because of the original show. I had a 3d version of Raph in class when a highschool was visiting the college and ppl were like "cool a ninja turtle" "Raph was always the best, he had the sais."

Other movies all these animal based comedies seem to do very well I would have thought the market would have been flooded and ppl would be sick of them but apparently not. Heck I cringe in the theater when I see another preview, over the hedge and flushed away recently come to mind. I have heard people say they are good though.

I was skeptical and am still a little bit that it will do really well; I dont think it will do anything like Spider-man level of sales but it should be able to draw oldschool tmnt fans in. Heck when I was a kid everyone loved the turtles and had action figures at school, I think it will easily get the $100 million. People thought Batman was dead and what did begins do $250 million or so? Then again I dont think Superman made a profit O_o.

It could end up like Casino Royal did every one hated Daniel Craig and said the movie would flop but its the highest grossing Bond film to date. Surpassing the Die another day crap fest (though I like Brosnan, whish it would have turned out better he was good and I am a Bond fan). Everyone knows what Bond is about and everyone has an idea of what the TMNT are about once they get some advertising letting ppl know about it, it will do very well imo. Oh if they can make Batman popular after Batman and Robbin etc I think once people see the TMNT it can easily be the same thing as what happened with Batman Begins.

[Kendamu]

I'm willing to bet it goes like this, $100 mil GUARANTEES it a sequel. Less than than, and it gets shelved until they feel like giving it another go with a smaller budget and whatever other changes they deem necessary (like a replacement April & Donnie, the omission of Casey Jones, a teen martial artist sidekick, a 'flash in the pan' musical guest, the usual).
Oh, God! Next we'll see Lady Soverign temporarily turning the next TMNT movie into a music video! No!

[Bevandera]

Good news: Of the 31 computer generated movies to receive a wide release (1,700 screens), 19 have broken $100M - nearly two thirds.

Bad news: Of the 12 that didn't break $100M, 7 were released in the past 12 months.

I still think TMNT will break $100M, with the only possible wrench in the gears being if Meet the Robinsons does better than expected.

[sdp]

there is no way it breaks that much domesticy.

just look at how much they made when the turtle were in their prime, and how much other cgi movies have made recenty. cgi does not mean 100 million. I hope that was mostly a joke about no sequel unless 100 since i don't see that happening.

[Kendamu]

Hey. I never said it came from a reliable source. It came from some guy on a forum. Part of how I worded it was in hopes that someone would confirm or deny my findings.

[CyberCubed]

Its not going to make that much. Some people have their expectations too high, the reason the original movie did so well is because the original cartoon was THE #1 cartoon in the U.S. at the time.

The new show has always done poorly in ratings, the movie hasn't gotten much advertising as of yet, and kids aren't going to urge their parents to see Ninja Turtles as much compared to the original cartoon era.

It won't make that much.

[VGiselleH]

I think it will. All it needs is to announce the movie exists, then nostalgia can do the rest. The kids who bugged their parents to go see the first movie will now be old enough to go see it without parental permission. They'll go simply out of curiosity, or for old times sake, lol. Then with all the new kids wanting to see it as well...I think the movie can make it. And if the movie turns out to be great even if you aren't a fan, then there won't be a problem at all. *positive*

[Katie]

we need a TMNT superbowl spot......THAT would be killer!!!

[Jo Dawn]

Less than than, and it gets shelved until they feel like giving it another go with a smaller budget and whatever other changes they deem necessary (like a replacement April & Donnie, the omission of Casey Jones, a teen martial artist sidekick, a 'flash in the pan' musical guest, the usual).

Yep. Bring back Vanilla Ice. Guaranteed gold at the box office.


(Though I agreed with the other two replacements... though not so much now for April. I just really... hated her hair.)


As for my prediction... I dunno. I think it'll do well. I'm not gonna bet on whether or not it'll surpass $100 million (though I think it will). I can almost guarantee that the run time will really hurt it. 81 minutes?? That is a huge disappointment. A big let down for me, and I think it's gonna hurt it a bit.

Or... It COULD help in the way of parents going to take their kids to a movie that don't want to sit in a theater forever on a weekend, or something. That's a good option for them.

BUT... I'm not going to bank on that amount of money 'guaranteeing' a sequel, either. I don't trust the companies that much, heh.

[Bevandera]

As for my prediction... I dunno. I think it'll do well. I'm not gonna bet on whether or not it'll surpass $100 million (though I think it will). I can almost guarantee that the run time will really hurt it. 81 minutes?? That is a huge disappointment. A big let down for me, and I think it's gonna hurt it a bit.

I pointed this out in another thread, but 81 minutes pre-credits puts it about five minutes shorter than the first TMNT movie and at equal length or slightly longer than the second. Shrek was 84 minutes, Shrek 2 was 87 minutes. I know live-action superhero movies tend to be longer, but 81 minutes before credits is really not a big deal.

[Draconic]

I was under the impression that was 81 minutes, including credits? I'd be glad to be wrong.

[Bevandera]

I was under the impression that was 81 minutes, including credits? I'd be glad to be wrong.

Be glad :)

"CS/SHH!: Do you have a running time yet?

Gray: I think we're at 81 and change, and then probably five on getting out credits, the end credits."

That's from Tom Gray, the producer in the recent Studio Visit Interview (http://www.superherohype.com/news/tmntnews.php?id=5133). He's also confident that the movie will make $100M, though he's not an entirely unbiased source, obviously..

"CS/SHH!: What does this have to do to get a sequel?

Gray: Money-wise? Probably $100 and change. It will.

CS/SHH!: Worldwide?

Gray: Domestic."

[Aztec General]

I'm psyched for this movie and I think several other people are as well, but this film is not making $100 mil. Sorry, it's just not. My guess $50-70 mil.

[Bevandera]

I'm psyched for this movie and I think several other people are as well, but this film is not making $100 mil. Sorry, it's just not. My guess $50-70 mil.

I hope not...if it made $50M, it would be the 7th worst grossing CG movie, and that's counting Doogal and Valiant, the cheap European imports. If it made $70M, it would be the 9th worst.

TMNT has huge advantages over movies like The Wild and Everyone's Hero - it's a pre-existing franchise with an appeal that makes it stand out instead of just being considered "another talking animal CG movie", and it's a superhero movie.

[raphaelprime]

Good news: Of the 31 computer generated movies to receive a wide release (1,700 screens), 19 have broken $100M - nearly two thirds.

Bad news: Of the 12 that didn't break $100M, 7 were released in the past 12 months.

I still think TMNT will break $100M, with the only possible wrench in the gears being if Meet the Robinsons does better than expected.


Yeah but 4 of those 19 that grossed over 100 domestically were also released last year, and all 4 were in the top 10 for the whole year, one of them being in 2nd place.

BTW, you also have to look at this bit, recently franchise movies have been where studios are getting their money.

[TerranigmaFreak]

Me, I'm secretly hoping this movie will make more than the very first movie, but I should as hell think/hope this wil make at least 100 million.

[Sliced]

Its still pretty soon to have a trailer running on tv screens for this movie. I doubt we'll have a trailer before mid-febuary. This movie is out March 23rd, still a little while you know. We'll surely hear from it in mid-late febuary, not before.

But I really doubt it'll go higher than $85M. That's the maximum I give it. And still its gonna be really good if it does go as high. My personnal prediction is $77M. Just don't get your expectations too high guys.

We might have a total blockbuster on our hands, but it might as well do $40M you know. The TMNT are no longer what they used to be.

But, the DVDs are just gonna sky-rocket in sales and rentals. This gonna be huge as a DVD. I sure hope WB is taking that into accounts...

[TMNT]

Following up to what Sliced said, DVDs play a big part in if we get a sequel or not. Many films have done decent business at the box office but with additional DVD sales, they receive a sequel. I heard somewhere that Fantastic Four didn't do as expected at the box office but its DVD sales were good enough to give it a sequel. So yes, DVDs are very much a key factor. It looks like there will be ample material to go around on this DVD so I'm hopeful in that aspect. Either way, TMNT should do fairly well at the box office. Probably even better once word of mouth goes around. My only concern (not really a concern as I don't care for this particular group) is that the critcis might bash the film. I hope they realize that it's a much darker film (which I'm sure they'll see upon viewing). I'm pretty sure that the critics will see this film as being worthwhile and due to that word of mouth, more will see it. And as much as I hate to say this: get as many kids as you can HOOKED on TMNT and we'll have a sure fire winner.

[ThemanthatwouldbeRaphael]

Following up to what Sliced said, DVDs play a big part in if we get a sequel or not. Many films have done decent business at the box office but with additional DVD sales, they receive a sequel. I heard somewhere that Fantastic Four didn't do as expected at the box office but its DVD sales were good enough to give it a sequel. So yes, DVDs are very much a key factor. It looks like there will be ample material to go around on this DVD so I'm hopeful in that aspect. Either way, TMNT should do fairly well at the box office. Probably even better once word of mouth goes around. My only concern (not really a concern as I don't care for this particular group) is that the critcis might bash the film. I hope they realize that it's a much darker film (which I'm sure they'll see upon viewing). I'm pretty sure that the critics will see this film as being worthwhile and due to that word of mouth, more will see it. And as much as I hate to say this: get as many kids as you can HOOKED on TMNT and we'll have a sure fire winner.

My guess is, the reason those critics bashed the first 3 is that there wasn't enough focus on character(well, maybe not in last 2).

If the movie turns out as good as we expect it, the critics will be pleasently surprised.

[Warhorse]

we need a TMNT superbowl spot......THAT would be killer!!!

I'm thinking the exact same thing!

How much does it cost to get a commercial spot for the superbowl? Since it is the most widely watched show in history!

If not a commercial, maybe a banner that can be seen in the back ground or something.

[Katie]

They are $2.4 million for a 30 second spot....But, I think it would be a good investment because it would reach alot of folks who probably know nothing about the new movie.

All they'd really need to do would be run the teaser. That could hook alot of interest :D

[Kendamu]

Isn't this movie running on like a $12M budget? I wonder if they'd even have enough left over for 30 seconds during the Super Bowl.

[Katie]

Production budget and ad budgets should be separate....I know it's a fantasy, but wouldn't it be great if WB forked out some real advertising!

[Roseangelo]

Yeah, I'm sure they've got an extra $2.6 million (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16637866) just lying around.

Although I reallyreally would flip to see a TMNT Super Bowl commercial.

[FearlessLeader]

Okay if that movie Stomp the Yard can make $50 million by like its 4th week... why can't Turtles make $100 Million.


Even Epic movie made $19.5 million its opening weekend. I agree I don't think Turtles is going to beat Spiderman or X-Men but I think its going to do very well of its own accord.

[Warhorse]

Ok. I know this is an American movie. But it is being filmed using a Japanes studio, right?

So, what if this movie does astronanomical over seas? There have been times when a movie did poor in the U.S., but the overseas markets went nuts for it.

I just think it's stupid to narrow down the success to only the U.S. box office. I think the studio should consider a percentage of it's total production cost turn over profits, reguardless where it came from.

[gobo]

Imagi is a Chinese animation studio. I believe that's what you're referring to.

[Warhorse]

^Chinese. That's even better. It's got one of the biggest populations in the world, if not the biggest. I would think they would be excited to see a home made project hitting the world wide stage.

[Spitfire]

The TMNT series was #1 back when the movie came out. So you assume everyone who enjoyed it as a kid is dead now and won't go see the film? Think about it for a second. This movies target audience isn't just the kids, it's the people who grew up with TMNT. Trust me this movie will make money. Not only does it appeal to kids but it also appeals to alot of adults. And to top it off I could see many parents taking their kids to see it and going "Here's what I liked when I was your age" Once a few kids see it and go to school to tell everyone how cool they thought it was then more kids will go see it.

We would assume everyone whose a member here is a TMNT fan and all of us will see it at least once. We have 2,566 members, now not all of them are from the US but you get the point. A ticket is 10 bucks so that's 25,660 just from us. But are we going to go alone? I know I;m not. So let's assume everyone brings at least on person with them. 51,320.

Now that isn't much but if we all go see the movie more then once, bring someone with us when we do we can help this movie along. Also spread the word around, the more people know about it the more who will go see it.

Maybe I'm nuts but really this movie has stirred some interesting stuff up. If they advertise it more so more people know about it I bet it will make plenty.

[mikey2007]

The TMNT series was #1 back when the movie came out. So you assume everyone who enjoyed it as a kid is dead now and won't go see the film? Think about it for a second. This movies target audience isn't just the kids, it's the people who grew up with TMNT. Trust me this movie will make money. Not only does it appeal to kids but it also appeals to alot of adults. And to top it off I could see many parents taking their kids to see it and going "Here's what I liked when I was your age" Once a few kids see it and go to school to tell everyone how cool they thought it was then more kids will go see it.

We would assume everyone whose a member here is a TMNT fan and all of us will see it at least once. We have 2,566 members, now not all of them are from the US but you get the point. A ticket is 10 bucks so that's 25,660 just from us. But are we going to go alone? I know I;m not. So let's assume everyone brings at least on person with them. 51,320.

Now that isn't much but if we all go see the movie more then once, bring someone with us when we do we can help this movie along. Also spread the word around, the more people know about it the more who will go see it.

Maybe I'm nuts but really this movie has stirred some interesting stuff up. If they advertise it more so more people know about it I bet it will make plenty.

yeah, ur right, most of us will take someone or tell someone and get them to see it, and then on other sites like myspace, facebook and sites like that, they have lots of groups talking about ninja turtles, and how they can't hardly wait for the movie to come out, and that's another 4,000+ people that are showing interest, and when u figure the kids with their parents, that's gonna get us some good numbers, and once dvds come out, it'll definitely gross enough

[gobo]

yeah, ur right, most of us will take someone or tell someone and get them to see it, and then on other sites like myspace, facebook and sites like that, they have lots of groups talking about ninja turtles, and how they can't hardly wait for the movie to come out, and that's another 4,000+ people that are showing interest, and when u figure the kids with their parents, that's gonna get us some good numbers, and once dvds come out, it'll definitely gross enough
I love that movie. ^_^ Anyway, they need to make $100 mil domestic at the box office. DVD sales don't count. :ohwell: But, like I said earlier, I think they won't be so strict (or 'stupid', if you prefer...) to say that this is the only way it will have a sequel. If it turns out more profitable in the long run than the majority of their other projects, they'd be stupid to deny it a continuation. Of course, WB has been known to shoot themselves in The Foot before... :roll: I WANT MY SPEEDY GONZALES BACK!! :x

[twopinacoladas]

just look at how much they made when the turtle were in their prime, and how much other cgi movies have made recenty. cgi does not mean 100 million. I hope that was mostly a joke about no sequel unless 100 since i don't see that happening.

I may be wrong but movies are always breaking records, I think its due to higher ticket prices and such plus they would have to increase them as movie budgets have gotten higher etc. I was 7 years old when the first movie came out that was what 17 years ago? If it was still as popular as it was back in the day this movie would probably be doing more like 350 million at least domestic.

The thing about the TMNT then though it seemed so real, the suits were amazing and u really didnt see anything like that. I remember hearing news stories of kids going in the sewer and drowning looking for the TMNT.

[ThemanthatwouldbeRaphael]

I remember hearing news stories of kids going in the sewer and drowning looking for the TMNT.


:lol: :lol: :lol: Frickin Idiots! :lol: :lol:

[gobo]

I remember the thing about a couple of morons going to lay in the middle of a road after watching Beavis & Butt-Head. But, that was The Venture Bros., right? Seriously though, with my kind of luck, I'll have children that damned retarded. :(

[Bevandera]

The first movie's adjusted gross is around $210M. We need this new movie to make a little under half of that :)

[sdp]

You guys are being too hopefull...

but hopefuly, I'm proven wrong :D :D :D



and who said DVD sales werent important?
If the movie doesn't do as good yet DVD sales are very strong the studio's will take notice, who knows we could get a direct to DVD sequel worst case scenario :D

[Ecto Jedi]

and who said DVD sales werent important?
If the movie doesn't do as good yet DVD sales are very strong the studio's will take notice, who knows we could get a direct to DVD sequel worst case scenario :D

Ugh...Much better just having a major, well-made, stand-alone TMNT movie than having the first one released in theatres and then getting a bunch of sh*tty straight-to-DVD sequels no one really knows or cares about. (Casper, anyone?)

I'd really hate to see a potentially lucrative, quality TMNT movie franchise degenerating to that level.

[Warhorse]

I remember the thing about a couple of morons going to lay in the middle of a road after watching Beavis & Butt-Head. But, that was The Venture Bros., right? Seriously though, with my kind of luck, I'll have children that damned retarded. :(

I don't know about the Beavis and Butt Head thing. But I remember a movie called The Program, about a bunch of highschool football players. Well, there was a part where the kids were doing some sort of truth or dare, where they lay right in the middle of a busy highway, on the yellow dividing line, for whatever reason. Well, some real stupid kids did that stunt in real life. I don't think nothing happened, but because of that one incident, they removed that scene in the movie.

[mikey2007]

I love that movie. ^_^ Anyway, they need to make $100 mil domestic at the box office. DVD sales don't count. :ohwell: But, like I said earlier, I think they won't be so strict (or 'stupid', if you prefer...) to say that this is the only way it will have a sequel. If it turns out more profitable in the long run than the majority of their other projects, they'd be stupid to deny it a continuation. Of course, WB has been known to shoot themselves in The Foot before... :roll: I WANT MY SPEEDY GONZALES BACK!! :x

oh come on gobo, u always got to be hatin' on me:P , and u used the word stupid too, so there:D

[gobo]

:x HOW DARE YOU ACCUSE ME OF HATRED?!?! :flaming: I really hate that. :evil:

:lol: Joking, dude. I'm just a stickler for details. I noticed you had overlooked one, so I was pointing it out. While I was at it, I felt the urge to lecture the general public on my rational beliefs on the idea in question. So, really, you were a segue into my pontification. :D Only the first sentence was directed specifically at you.

EDIT: Actually, the first two sentences... "Stickler for detail" was a bit of an understatement, you see. :embarass:

[sdp]

Ugh...Much better just having a major, well-made, stand-alone TMNT movie than having the first one released in theatres and then getting a bunch of sh*tty straight-to-DVD sequels no one really knows or cares about. (Casper, anyone?)

I'd really hate to see a potentially lucrative, quality TMNT movie franchise degenerating to that level.

I'd rather have some DTVs based on the movie than nothing at all for years to come. yeah some straight to dvd releases are horrible like the land before time series or disney movie sequels made to just cash in but DTVs are not all bad, look at the ones for the DCAnimated Universe, they are fantastic.

[Bevandera]

The problem with Direct-To-Video sequels is budget. DTVs won't get the same budget as a theatrical release, and companies like Imagi are less likely to be interested in making them when they have projects like Gatchaman and Astroboy in their queues. A sequel to a box office hit they made has a chance of even skipping the queue altogether...a DTV sequel to a project that performed mediocre goes to the end of the line, and we either won't get it for four years and it won't be their best work, or it will go to a cheaper computer that isn't as skilled at CGI (i.e. Dong Woo's Invincible Iron Man).