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Given the fact that it's animated and cheap to make it would have to spectacularly under-perform for them lose money and since it's animated the public perception of what animated movies should make is substantially lower. The much lauded Into The Spider-Verse wasn't exactly a huge earner but was touted as a huge success. TMNT 2007 grossed just shy of $100 million and that was enough for it to deemed a success and a sequel green lit (even if it didn't materalise). I imagine with Viacom's marketing campaign when it kicks will be better than WB's so I could see Mutant Mayhem will performing better.
Still I suppose it's possible for it to completely tank. Even without a promo campaign I would expect more online conversation about this but there is zero buzz about this. All of the big outlets that cover comic book movie and pop culture related news aren't covering the latest updates on it. If not for Rogen's name being attached to it I imagine there would be zero coverage of it. The only people I see interested in this are the ten or so fans who love anything TMNT.
If it does flop I'd bet the ongoing series is cancelled or hastily reworked. While they are unconnected to the movie I imagine the Paramount+ villain movies don't happen. The status of the live action movie goes from 'it may happen at some point possibly maybe' to 'no way in hell'. The TMNT franchise is just the IDW book and 80s inspired merchandise..until some exec at Paramount pitches the 'genius' idea of going back to the roots of the franchise and pulls out a presentation of the turtles fighting Bebop and Rocksteady in Dimension-X.
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