TMNT 2 Box Office Predictions and Results

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by TigerClaw

It shows that the worldwide gross is $69,250,000

Yeah but that's Domestic and Overseas in total.

Overseas it's done $34M.

[neatoman]

(Can't believe I had to shut off adblock for that site)

That is a very minor uptick and still only about half of what the previous movie made. The movie it beats out that weekend is X-Men Apocalypse, a movie that has been out for a week and also did twice as good in it's own opening weekend.

[Bry]

Deadline added a bit more information. Snipped here:

Online, TMNT2 trailers were passed around at an OK rate of 10:1 according to Relish Mix. Looking at daily views, the top clips have 60K or less, which is a bit lower than the 100K+ threshold typically seen in similar summer films.

[ranger_scout]

I think Deadline makes a good point that once more schools start letting kids out, this film might show some legs. The movie might also make some money through home video sales. IF a third film is to be made, then I recommend that these turtles go into the animated universe and have a crossover with the 2012 turtles. The live-action parts only need to be at the beginning and the very end.

[Bry]

Keep in mind that there's bound to be a significant second-week drop, and the week after that Finding Dory is bound to destroy all kid-oriented movies in its path. Only time will tell, though.

[Vicky82]

I find out tomorrow how well it's done in the UK and against Warcraft.

[biganimefan]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

I think Deadline makes a good point that once more schools start letting kids out, this film might show some legs. The movie might also make some money through home video sales. IF a third film is to be made, then I recommend that these turtles go into the animated universe and have a crossover with the 2012 turtles. The live-action parts only need to be at the beginning and the very end.

Honestly, I do like the last 2 movies(especially this one), but I really hope that the current series stays away from many more crossovers personally. Besides, the 2K3 series was ruined animation-wise by trying to be more like the TMNT movie of '07. Nick would be wise staying far away from having much to do with these movies.


Anyway, back on topic. I have no idea really how the movie business works but couldn't the low box-office be "blamed" for having stiff competition with X-Men and other movies? But yeah, at this point I think the movie would be lucky if it broke $300 million internationally.

[samxsteal]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

I find out tomorrow how well it's done in the UK and against Warcraft.

Weekends not over yet I think that the one thing this one has going for it is it has more legs I think it will last longer at the box office. I have a feeling this will have better word of mouth from the casual movie going community.

[ranger_scout]

Right now I am looking at films with similar opening weekends that opened in the last ten years that also had some legs. Here's a list:

*The Smurfs Sony $35,611,637 25.0% $142,614,158 7/29/2011

*Super 8 Par. $35,451,168 27.9% $127,004,179 6/10/2011

*Enchanted BV $34,440,317 26.9% $127,807,262 11/21/2007

*Puss in Boots P/DW $34,077,439 22.8% $149,260,504 10/28/2011

*Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony $34,017,930 28.4% $119,793,567 9/27/2013

*Epic Fox $33,531,068 31.2% $107,518,682 5/24/2013

If it can perform similar to these films, then it can still be considered a success.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime...htm&order=DESC

[NinjaPug]

I don't think China can save this one.

Meanwhile, Shadows earned even less in the summer season's opening month, which is arguably a more advantageous position. Its biggest competitors from last week are Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse, both of which saw attendance drop-offs of more than 60%.

It didn't fare much better overseas, either. Opening in more than 50 markets outside of the U.S., Shadows only managed to bring in an estimated $34 million. In other words, there was a lot of opportunity for Turtles to capitalize on this weekend, but it failed to bring out any big crowds.

At this point Paramount has to be wondering if Out of the Shadows, which was said to be budgeted at $135 million, will manage to break even. The movie still isn't out in a number of key foreign markets — including China, which is historically friendly to American blockbusters — so all is not lost.

http://mashable.com/2016/06/05/teena.../#XxvBB_3z.5ql

[ranger_scout]

Variety has a statement from the people at Paramount.

Paramount Vice-Chairman Rob Moore acknowledged that the studio hoped the domestic launch would be bigger, but said that the film could make up ground in the coming weeks. The second “Ninja Turtles” played younger, with 51% of the opening weekend crowd coming in under 25 years old as opposed to 45% for the first picture.

“The good news is younger movies tend to play at better multiples,” said Moore, predicting that, “the gap [between the films] will narrow as we play out.”

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-off...ar-1201788994/

[samxsteal]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Right now I am looking at films with similar opening weekends that opened in the last ten years that also had some legs. Here's a list:



If it can perform similar to these films, then it can still be considered a success.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime...htm&order=DESC

I think it will perform relatively well.

Originally Posted by NinjaPug

I don't think China can save this one.



http://mashable.com/2016/06/05/teena.../#XxvBB_3z.5ql

There is alot of mistake in that article.

[TrickOrTreater]

Haha oh man. Only 10 million more than Fantfourstic that bombed at 25 million OW, with only like 70 theaters LESS than BayTurtles 2.

And opening at HALF what the first one made 2 years ago.

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by NinjaPug

I don't think China can save this one.



http://mashable.com/2016/06/05/teena.../#XxvBB_3z.5ql

That's wrong, it was about 40 countries, still bad though.

http://www.teenagemutantninjaturtles...ase-dates.html

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3949660/...ref_=tt_ov_inf

[NinjaPug]

Originally Posted by samxsteal

I think it will perform relatively well.

There is alot of mistake in that article.

What were the mistakes other than the number of international markets?

[Bry]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Variety has a statement from the people at Paramount.

It begins.

Originally Posted by samxsteal

There is alot of mistake in that article.

A couple. He got the number of international markets wrong, yeah. And calling the first movie "a middling debut by summer standards" is technically true if looking at the full season, but he ignores the context that it was a high performance for August. So I'll give you that. But the rest seems on point.

[slingtheory]

Originally Posted by chrisdude

we've all seen the reviews. Those are written by people who watched the movie. Cubed and I were discussing reasons people would not have gone to see the movie. All the promotions did was introduce a bunch of fan favorite characters, so I don't think that's why.

I think that might be one of the reasons why. Because all the promotions did was push the characters I wouldn't be surprised if many people wrote the movie off as being more of the same. Now with the gimmick of MOAR nostalgia. I know I sure did. If you didn't like the way they handled the few character's they had the first go round adding more to the mix isn't going to be something people see as solving the problem.

[The Deadman]

I don't think this movie has to worry about Warcraft...it has a 19% right now on Rotten Tomatoes, and wasn't projected to do well in the States...now Conjuring 2? Even though it's a horror film and not direct competition in terms of genre I have a feeling OOTS won't stand a chance, it'll probably come in at #2 but it won't over take Conjuring (that currently has a 85% on RT and a 9.1 on IMDB).

[TigerClaw]

Originally Posted by The Deadman

I don't think this movie has to worry about Warcraft...it has a 19% right now on Rotten Tomatoes, and wasn't projected to do well in the States...now Conjuring 2? Even though it's a horror film and not direct competition in terms of genre I have a feeling OOTS won't stand a chance, it'll probably come in at #2 but it won't over take Conjuring (that currently has a 85% on RT and a 9.1 on IMDB).

Independence Day: Resurgence also opening this month.

[Vicky82]

This weekend has been bad for movies in the US, X-Men and Alice both suffered big drops.