TMNT 2 Box Office Predictions and Results

[Galactus]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

In 2014 TMNT did £4M in it's first weekend, if TMNT 2 does less than that this week, it will be considered a flop or bomb or whatever.

Oh I'm sure there will be no end of defenders to say anything to say that it isn't but it's going to be an interesting one that's for sure.

[Bry]

I'm not counting on anything, because the last movie did better than expected and these forecasts are not always accurate... but if this does underperform, my hope is that they get the message that relentlessly milking Fred Wolf nostalgia isn't enough to build a franchise.

It's diminishing returns. IIRC, the much-hyped Fred Wolf crossover episode of the Nick show didn't bring much of a ratings boost, and if this movie does less than the last one, hopefully someone will get the hint that they could and should dig a little deeper if they want to keep the property going strong.

[CylonsKlingonsDaleksOhMy]

Originally Posted by Bry

I'm not counting on anything, because the last movie did better than expected and these forecasts are not always accurate... but if this does underperform, my hope is that they get the message that relentlessly milking Fred Wolf nostalgia isn't enough to build a franchise.

It's diminishing returns. IIRC, the much-hyped Fred Wolf crossover episode of the Nick show didn't bring much of a ratings boost, and if this movie does less than the last one, hopefully someone will get the hint that they could and should dig a little deeper if they want to keep the property going strong.

At this point I don't even give a damn if they keep milking Fred Wolf or not.

Just make a good movie that's competently written without all this stupid bullsh!t, five-ton seven-foot monster Turtles, no backstory...

I CANNOT BELIEVE how many of you people are okay or even applaud this crap.

[Vicky82]

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/te...ar-1201786708/

“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows” should unseat “X-Men: Apocalypse” from the top spot on the box office charts this weekend when it debuts to roughly $37 million.

However, the film is the latest sequel to struggle to match the performance of its predecessor. The return of the pizza-munching, martial arts-wielding reptiles is on pace to open to just half of what 2014’s “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” made during its first weekend in theaters.

Hollywood is fond of the franchise business, believing that sequels are easier to market and carry less risk than original productions. But go back to the trough too many times, and a studio can risk audience fatigue. This summer has been particularly brutal for follow-ups. “Alice Through the Looking Glass” flopped, “Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising” stumbled, and even the latest “X-Men” fell about 30% short of “Days of Future Past’s” monster opening.

Some analysts think that audiences will continue to cool to this year’s crop of sequels. If true, that would be bad news for the likes of “Star Trek: Beyond,” “Independence Day: Resurgence,” and “Jason Bourne,” all of which are slated to hit theaters over the next three months. “Sequels can work only if they meet or best the standards of the original,” said Jeff Bock, an analyst with Exhibitor Relations. “Many of these films are too interested in repeating the past. After a while, audiences may say, ‘Why bother?'”

“Out of the Shadows” cost $135 million to produce and brings back original stars Megan Fox and Will Arnett, along with series newcomers Laura Linney, looking a long way from “Mystic River,” and “Arrow” favorite Stephen Amell. Paramount believes that the film could prove more durable domestically than the first “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles,” because it is tracking less like an action film and more like a family adventure. Moviegoers with kids don’t always rush out for opening weekend, the theory goes.

The studio is also banking on overseas business to help lift grosses. “Out of the Shadows” bows in 40 foreign territories this weekend, including such major markets as the United Kingdom, Mexico, and Russia. It’s expected to bow to more than $30 million. The big question will be if “Out of the Shadows” can match the first film’s $62.1 million Chinese gross when it debuts in the People’s Republic on July 2. Paramount has partnered with Alibaba Pictures and Dalian Wanda Group, two local alliances that could help the new “Ninja Turtles” installment attract crowds in the world’s second-largest film market.

In its second weekend, “X-Men: Apocalypse” should pull in more than $25 million, enough to hold off a flurry of new releases. Among the fresh entrants, Warner Bros. and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer will try to attract female audiences with “Me Before You,” a romantic drama about a caregiver (Emilia Clarke of “Game of Thrones” fame) who falls in love with a wealthy paralyzed man (Sam Claflin from “Hunger Games”). The adaptation of the best-selling novel cost just more than $20 million to produce and will debut in roughly 2,600 locations. It is eyeing a $14 million launch.

That leaves Universal’s “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping,” looking like the weekend’s big whiff. The comedy from Andy Samberg’s rock parody group, the Lonely Island, will be lucky to eke out $6 million this weekend — an anemic result for a film with a $21 million price tag

[neatoman]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/te...ar-1201786708/

So I'm guessing that making a movie more like the Fred Wolf cartoon wasn't such a smart move after all, reminds me of how Trans-Dimensional Turtles didn't boost the ratings like they thought.

Once again it makes me wonder if the nostalgia for the Fred Wolf cartoon has died.

[ranger_scout]

Originally Posted by Bry

I'm not counting on anything, because the last movie did better than expected and these forecasts are not always accurate... but if this does underperform, my hope is that they get the message that relentlessly milking Fred Wolf nostalgia isn't enough to build a franchise.

It's diminishing returns. IIRC, the much-hyped Fred Wolf crossover episode of the Nick show didn't bring much of a ratings boost, and if this movie does less than the last one, hopefully someone will get the hint that they could and should dig a little deeper if they want to keep the property going strong.

Originally Posted by neatoman

So I'm guessing that making a movie more like the Fred Wolf cartoon wasn't such a smart move after all, reminds me of how Trans-Dimensional Turtles didn't boost the ratings like they thought.

Once again it makes me wonder if the nostalgia for the Fred Wolf cartoon has died.

I'm glad that they are paying tribute to the Fred Wolf cartoon. The franchise would be nowhere today if it wasn't for that series. I haven't seen the film yet, but I am hoping for the best. If the last film can outperform expectations and tracking numbers, then maybe this one can too.

[Vicky82]

Pro Box Office predicts it's going to do $27M at opening weekend.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-for...ever-stopping/

[TrickOrTreater]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

Pro Box Office predicts it's going to do $27M at opening weekend.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-for...ever-stopping/

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiiiiiii*t.

That's bad.

[TigerClaw]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

Pro Box Office predicts it's going to do $27M at opening weekend.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-for...ever-stopping/

It's gonna make way more then that, they predicted low numbers with the 1st one too, and it made more then they predicted.

[NinjaPug]

Originally Posted by TigerClaw

It's gonna make way more then that, they predicted low numbers with the 1st one too, and it made more then they predicted.

People also predicted higher box offices for Apocalypse and Alice 2 last weekend. It goes both ways.

[turtlefanforever]

Originally Posted by TigerClaw

It's gonna make way more then that, they predicted low numbers with the 1st one too, and it made more then they predicted.

But that was 100% pure nostalgia. People recognized the name and were like "oh i gotta see that s--t"

Now people know what they are bringing to the table after the steaming pile of crap they released in 2014. Given it would be near impossible to make a film worse than that one this movie will still be horrendous.

[ranger_scout]

Hollywood Reporter says that Paramount is sticking with predictions of an opening between $35 million to $40 million.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...-mutant-898839

[TrickOrTreater]

Oh I cannot wait until Sunday.

The Lord's Day.

Day of Happiness and Rest and Peace and JUSTICE above all else.

[Foombamaroom]

Originally Posted by TrickOrTreater

Oh I cannot wait until Sunday.

The Lord's Day.

Day of Happiness and Rest and Peace and JUSTICE above all else.

Amen.


The first movie made $400m. That's good for a superhero movie-- If it's released in 2006.

This is 2016. Civil War has made a billion dollars. Force Awakens (2015, I know.) made TWO BILLION DOLLARS.

And Ant-Man, a movie about a character that no one knows, made HALF A BILLION.

The TMNT name should be able to rake in 700k, but it making any less than 500k just proves that these producers are doing something wrong, and the audience doesn't want to waste money on it.


Let's hope this thing bombs like Fan4stic.

[TrickOrTreater]

Originally Posted by Foombamaroom

Amen.


The first movie made $400m. That's good for a superhero movie-- If it's released in 2006.

This is 2016. Civil War has made a billion dollars. Force Awakens (2015, I know.) made TWO BILLION DOLLARS.

And Ant-Man, a movie about a character that no one knows, made HALF A BILLION.

The TMNT name should be able to rake in 700k, but it making any less than 500k just proves that these producers are doing something wrong, and the audience doesn't want to waste money on it.


Let's hope this thing bombs like Fan4stic.

And Fantfourstic made 25 million opening weekend.

If this piece of garbage is anywhere even CLOSE to that, it'll be considered a bomb.

[CylonsKlingonsDaleksOhMy]

Originally Posted by TrickOrTreater

And Fantfourstic made 25 million opening weekend.

If this piece of garbage is anywhere even CLOSE to that, it'll be considered a bomb.

Gleefully anticipating. Burn, baby, burn.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

I'm glad that they are paying tribute to the Fred Wolf cartoon. The franchise would be nowhere today if it wasn't for that series.

I don't think anyone's disputing that, but the issue I and others have is that it gets paid tribute to constantly. Like, at times almost exclusively. Any products, merchandise, apparel, etc (outside of the currently-running Nick show) is pretty much 100% Fred Wolf, and every iteration running is crammed full of FW references. It's everywhere, all the time, and several other notable iterations always get snubbed or forgotten because of it. The property has a long history with a ton of worthy additions throughout, but all of that potential is ignored.

And especially when it comes to movies, that constant Fred Wolf influence shows its weakness. Because while I have plenty of nostalgia for it, and for the elements it introduced, it really is a cartoon. And I mean a cartoon -- it's got plenty of charm, but it doesn't have much in the way of compelling stories or genuine emotion or deep characters. And that's by design; it was a goofy comedy that winked at the audience about how silly it was. But following that lead exclusively doesn't translate to feature films particularly well. It doesn't help an audience invest in the characters and their world if everything's thinly-developed and every character is as one-note and basic as can be. There's a reason that the 1990 movie used some personality aspects from the cartoon but otherwise took its plot wholesale from the Mirage comics, and that's because the comics told a proper story and the cartoon... really didn't. (Aside from maybe season one.)

And that's what's missing here. An actual, genuine story. Movies need them. And for this property, to make that work, what they need to do is look deeper than surface-level cartoon nostalgia alone.

[Leolead]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

Pro Box Office predicts it's going to do $27M at opening weekend.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-for...ever-stopping/

Ohhhh. TMNT reboot in 2020/2020, hopefully.

[TurtleTitan97]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

Pro Box Office predicts it's going to do $27M at opening weekend.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-for...ever-stopping/

Man, that's pathetic.

[TigerClaw]

Its gonna be way more then that, these people are always underestimating these movies.