Unrest in Ukraine

[ChosenOne]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

You're still operating under the assumption Putin is a rational individual and will behave rationally and appropriately. And maybe the "I'm a crazy/unpredictable guy" routine is an act. But maybe it's not.

I know he's not rational. He's also not as much in control of things as you assume. There's blood in the water and the regime sharks are circling to take him out. Some are even openly questioning his choices on national television. Imagine that.

Guy's a paranoid tyrant, and for good reason. He's very much afraid of a coup, whether civilian or military, China has put him on notice, and any orders he gives to deploy nukes will never be carried down the chain of command. He knows all of this. Otherwise, why would he have so many oligarchs taken out? Why would he suppress public opinion so hard? Why bother with do much propaganda and misdirection to divide the West?

If he loses the war, he dies, and he knows he can't win. The end is in sight now. What we can't ever, ever do is give in to the bastard's demands because then he'll never stop making them. That was the mistake with Hitler, and that was Soetoro's mistake in 2014. No more.

[Vegita-San]

https://twitter.com/ASavageNation/st...00399118913536

too bad this didn't come out before the midterms. boot these crooks out.

[neatoman]

The problem with Putin being removed from power, be it a coup, his death or any other reason, is that it could lead to a serious scramble for the throne. Putin demolished what little democracy existed, "elections" only happen because they technically need too but only exist as weird mockery concept and there's not clear line of succession. Get rid of Biden and you get President Harris, get rid of Harris and you get President Pelosi, etc, etc. You might think Putin would get replaced by the "Prime Minister" but that office mainly seems to exist to let Putin remain in charge whenever he is "required" to not be the "President" every time he has spent two consecutive terms. It's obvious that Putin has twisted the system to only allow himself power and that he only shares power because micromanaging a country is impossible. Of course, the lack of any real democracy or clear line of succession is part of what lead to things like... Well... A lot of problems in Russian/Soviet history...

[Sumac]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

Exit strategy that allows him to save face and keep some meager gains. As in a "realistic exit strategy" that he would consider.

I feel like we are past that point.

[Original TMNT Cartoon Fan]

I am seriously thinking about what to do about Russia once they have retreated from Ukraine. More boycots? Immedietaly restore Russia's staus in international trade (and returning Disney, IKEA and McDonald's)? NATO occupation (if possible, I'm not a fan of NATO going to war with Russia without any member being attacked)? Independence for places like Chechnya or Dagestan?

[ChosenOne]

Originally Posted by neatoman

The problem with Putin being removed from power, be it a coup, his death or any other reason, is that it could lead to a serious scramble for the throne. Putin demolished what little democracy existed, "elections" only happen because they technically need too but only exist as weird mockery concept and there's not clear line of succession. Get rid of Biden and you get President Harris, get rid of Harris and you get President Pelosi, etc, etc. You might think Putin would get replaced by the "Prime Minister" but that office mainly seems to exist to let Putin remain in charge whenever he is "required" to not be the "President" every time he has spent two consecutive terms. It's obvious that Putin has twisted the system to only allow himself power and that he only shares power because micromanaging a country is impossible. Of course, the lack of any real democracy or clear line of succession is part of what lead to things like... Well... A lot of problems in Russian/Soviet history...

That's their f*cking problem. They made the bed.

Originally Posted by Original TMNT Cartoon Fan

I am seriously thinking about what to do about Russia once they have retreated from Ukraine. More boycots? Immedietaly restore Russia's staus in international trade (and returning Disney, IKEA and McDonald's)? NATO occupation (if possible, I'm not a fan of NATO going to war with Russia without any member being attacked)? Independence for places like Chechnya or Dagestan?

See above.

[MikeandRaph87]

Here is a pretty good breakdown of what could happen if Putin's ill-advised invasion fails.

[Original TMNT Cartoon Fan]

Originally Posted by MikeandRaph87

Here is a pretty good breakdown of what could happen if Putin's ill-advised invasion fails.

Those maps of Europe are from alternate history.

[Mayhem]

If true, oh dear...!

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has convened an urgent meeting of Poland's National Security Council after unconfirmed reports that stray Russian missiles hit a farm in a Polish village near the Ukrainian border, killing two people. The village has been named as Przewodów.

[ChosenOne]

It's true. Here we go...

[IMJ]

Yeah that could absolutely have been the World War 3 moment right there.

[ChosenOne]

Poland has triggered NATO Article 4.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by Mayhem

If true, oh dear...!

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has convened an urgent meeting of Poland's National Security Council after unconfirmed reports that stray Russian missiles hit a farm in a Polish village near the Ukrainian border, killing two people. The village has been named as Przewodów.

Is it cynical of me to wonder right away if it was really Russia that fired them?

[MikeandRaph87]

Article 4 information taken from NATO's official website:

Spoiler:

In Article 4 of NATO’s founding treaty, members can bring any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country, to the table for discussion within the North Atlantic Council.
Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked several times, for instance by Turkey.


Different forms of consultation
Consultation takes many forms. At its most basic level it involves simply the exchange of information and opinions. At another level it covers the communication of actions or decisions, which governments have already taken or may be about to take. Finally, it can encompass discussion with the aim of reaching a consensus on policies to be adopted or actions to be taken.

In sum, consultation is continuous and takes place both on a formal and informal basis. It can happen quickly due to the fact that all member states have permanent delegations at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. Governments can come together at short notice whenever necessary, often with prior knowledge of their respective national preoccupations, in order to agree on common policies or take action on the basis of consensus. NATO’s network of committees facilitates consultation by enabling government officials, experts and administrators to come together on a daily basis to discuss a broad range issues.

The principle of consensus decision-making is applied throughout NATO, which means that all “NATO decisions” are the expression of the collective will of all sovereign states that are members of this inter-governmental organization. While consensus decision-making can help a member country preserve national sovereignty in the area of defence and security, Article 4 can be an invitation for member countries to concede this right to the group or it can simply lead to a request for NATO support.

Article 4

Under Article 4 of NATO’s founding treaty, member countries can bring an issue to the attention of the North Atlantic Council (Council or NAC – NATO’s principal political decision-making body) and discuss it with Allies. The article states:

“The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”

Any member country can formally invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. As soon as it is invoked, the issue is discussed and can potentially lead to some form of joint decision or action on behalf of the Alliance. Whatever the scenario, fellow members sitting around the Council table are encouraged to react to a situation brought to their attention by a member country.

Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times. On 24 February 2022, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On 26 July 2015, Turkey made the same request in view of the seriousness of the situation following terrorist attacks, and to inform Allies of the measures it was taking. Poland invoked Article 4 on 3 March 2014 following increasing tensions in neighboring Ukraine, as a result of Russia’s aggressive actions. On two occasions in 2012, Turkey requested a NAC meeting under Article 4: once on 22 June after one of its fighter jets was shot down by Syrian air defense forces and the second time on 3 October when five Turkish civilians were killed by Syrian shells. Following these incidents, on 21 November, Turkey requested the deployment of Patriot missiles. NATO agreed to this defensive measure so as to help Turkey defend its population and territory, and help de-escalate the crisis along the border.

Previously, on 10 February 2003, Turkey formally invoked Article 4, asking for consultations in the NAC on defensive assistance from NATO in the event of a threat to its population or territory resulting from armed conflict in neighboring Iraq. NATO agreed a package of defensive measures and conducted Operation Display Deterrence from end February to early May 2003.

[MikeandRaph87]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

Is it cynical of me to wonder right away if it was really Russia that fired them?

If not it was North Korea.


While I believe the world disagrees about 'One China' China is beginning to back off for its economy's sake.

[Mayhem]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

Is it cynical of me to wonder right away if it was really Russia that fired them?

Should be able to tell from various evidence, trajectories, missile remnants etc. Or you more thinking Ukrainian forces launched captured Russian armaments at Poland?

[ChosenOne]

Originally Posted by MikeandRaph87

If not it was North Korea.

I can't tell if you're serious.

It was Russian ordnance fired from Belarus, as per usual when it comes to bombings in the Lviv region.

Over ninety missiles fell all over Ukraine today in retaliation for Zelensky's speech at the G20 Summit, somehow I doubt all or even any of those were gear captured by Ukrainian armed forces.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by Mayhem

Or you more thinking Ukrainian forces launched captured Russian armaments at Poland?

More that. Maybe even just a few Ukrainian forces acting alone.

[Andrew NDB]

They don't know who fired the missiles, just that they were Russian made.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...-22/index.html

[ChosenOne]

Well... Apocalypse averted, I guess. For now.