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‘Ninja Turtles’ May Shell-Shock ‘Guardians’ at Box Office (The Wrap Article)

Interesting article...TMNT is leading Fandango for presale tickets. This could be a great thing for those who want this to succeed. I'm hoping for a Trilogy out of this.

http://www.thewrap.com/teenage-mutan...at-box-office/

Quote:

Marvel's space romp has posted summer's best Monday and Tuesday grosses and both films could top $45 million for weekend

“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” is a slight favorite to knock Disney and Marvel's breakout space adventure “Guardians of the Galaxy” out of the top spot at the box office this weekend, in what could be one of summer's closest popcorn smackdowns.

The kiddie crowd will lift Donatello, Raphael, Leonardo and Michelangelo narrowly past Quill, Drax, Gamora, Groot and Rocket Raccoon of “Guardians,” say the analysts, with both films likely to top $45 million for the weekend. That would be more good news for the struggling summer box office, which reversed a seven-week slump last weekend, but it's still running about 18 percent behind last year.

There are three other wide openers: the found-footage tornado thriller “In the Storm,” the Helen Mirren foodie drama “The Hundred-Foot Journey” and dance romp “Step Up All In.” None of those are expected to threaten the leaders, however.

Word of mouth could play a major factor in determining who winds up on top, and that's the best argument for “Guardians.”

Great reviews and strong word of mouth propelled it to an August-record $94 million debut last weekend, about $20 million above pre-release projections. Most of this summer's No. 1 films have taken second-week drops in the 60 percent range, with the exception of the “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes,” which the critics loved. The reviews for “Guardians” have been just as strong, so a second-week drop like the 50 percent that “Apes” fell seems likely, which would put it at $47 million.

“Guardians” has been very impressive since its big opening weekend, posting the summer's biggest hauls for a Monday ($11.7 million) and Tuesday ($11.9 million).

Paramount's Michael Bay-produced “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” is reboot of the film franchise that launched in 1990, when the wise-cracking reptilians were at their peak in popularity. Sequels in 1991 and 1993 didn't come close to the $135 million domestic and $66 million from overseas that the original “Turtles” did, so this represents a gamble for Paramount.

The $130 million production budget ups the ante, and makes a strong overseas showing critical if “TMNT” is to turn a profit for Paramount, Bay's Platinum Dunes and Nickelodeon Movies.

The popular kids TV show on Nickelodeon has helped the Turtles stay relevant with the young set, and the toy sales remain significant. There has been a dearth of family movies this summer, and the degree to which the PG-13-rated “Ninja Turtles” connects with kids will have a lot to do with its fortunes. The fact that “Guardians” skewed somewhat older — more than half its first-weekend audience was over 25 — could help there, too.

“Ninja Turtles” is tracking for an opening between $45 million and $50 million, and a late blitz of TV advertising could push it higher.

It was leading “Guardians” in advance sales at Fandango on Wednesday, and pacing ahead “G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra,” which opened to $54 million in 2009. It's also surging on social media, with more than double the Facebook likes of “The LEGO Movie” and is just behind it on Twitter.

There are not a lot of reviews yet, but the ones that are posted haven't been kind. If crowds at the Thursday night previews and on Friday are similarly underwhelmed, it could cut into the “Turtles” take. Lukewarm word of mouth might not matter to kiddies, but could make a difference with adults.

“Speaking as someone who grew up on the Turtles, I get the feeling there is a lot of curiosity among 20-somethings,” said BoxOffice.com assistant editor Shawn Robbins. “Whether it's go-to-the-theater curious or wait-for-Redbox curious we'll see, and word of mouth could affect that on Saturday and Sunday.” A scenario in which “Turtles” wins Friday and “Guardians” pulls ahead over the weekend wouldn't be shocking.

“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” will be in more than 3,700 locations, including about 350 Premium Large Format locations. “Guardians” will retain all of the IMAX theaters that delivered an August-record $11.7 million, or roughly 12 percent of the grosses, in its first weekend.

A trilogy? I'm all for it! :tcool:

This is a good perspective contrast to the pessimists.

I actually have a bet with a coworker of mine; if the Turtles knock Guardians from the no.1 spot this weekend, he owes me a copy of the movie when it comes out on bluray, if Guardians remains no.1, 2 weekends in a row, then vice versa.

Honestly, I think I have the advantage bc Guardians has been out a whole week, so everyone who was just dying to see it probably already has, and all that leaves is the crowd curious to see if Turtles lived up to its namesake, which probably includes a portion of those who already went to see Guardians.

Any way you slice it, I think I'm getting a free bluray. Unless of course, neither Guardians nor Turtles earn the no.1 spot, losing to something completely unexpected like Step Up '37'...if that happens, all hope is lost for the world. :D

Congratulations. TMNT might be able to squeak out a victory over a movie that's already been out a week and set box office records. Real accomplishment there.

Plus this article has already been posted at least twice.

As a fan that doesn't care at all for this movie I've long thought it would be financially successful anyway. Now that doesn't seem all that possible internationaly it doesn't matter to me if it tops the box office in the US, in fact there's something kinda sad about the idea that for tne first time a TMNT movie might fall short in that regard.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NinjaPug (Post 1324363)

It would be a real accomplishment, because Guardians has word of mouth now, and it could put up another enormous weekend.

And I did a search before posting, so either you're mistaken, the seach feature doesn't work, or they posted the link after I started this thread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by floydbanks7 (Post 1324400)

Article was mentioned in the thread called box office predictions for tmnt.

I really hope Guardians doesn't get blown out of the water by turtles, even if it is unlikely.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NinjaPug (Post 1324363)

Actually, it is a real accomplishment if it happens.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sanjuro (Post 1324514)

Actually, it is a real accomplishment if it happens.

I think it will, As much as I love Guardians of the Galaxy, Its still a new franchise, When you have another that's been around for 30 years, TMNT has the advantage because, you got a Fanbase that spans a few generations.

You got the ones to grew up in the 80s reading the comics and watching the animated series, Ones who grew up watching the movies, Played the Video Games, Those who watched the 2003 series and seen the 2007 CGI film, Those who read the IDW Comics, And seen the Nick series.

So I think TMNT will succeed because, you have People who grew up with the Turtles, Who are now Parents with there own Children, so they will take them to see the movie this weekend.

I'm pretty sure TMNT will beat GOTG...just saying.

I'm seeing a lot of tweets from people who are seeing TMNT tonight.

Someone explain how it's an accomplishment for a movie in its first week that is based on a 30 year old property with an established fanbase, current tv series and current toyline to narrowly beat out a movie in its second week that is based on a property few people heard of until the movie.

If it happens.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vicky82 (Post 1324531)

I'm seeing a lot of tweets from people who are seeing TMNT tonight.

Yeah, They would have midnight showing for new movies on Thursday Night, I noticed the theater I go to are showing the film during the Evening hours.

If you think TMNT has the advantage over a film in the Marvel Universe right now, you might be in for some disappointment.

The franchise has been around for thirty years, but theatrically the franchise is not a juggernaut by any means.

A Marvel film about relatively unknown characters that has been out for a week already.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donatello19 (Post 1324528)

I'm pretty sure TMNT will beat GOTG...just saying.

I don't know, the Marvel brand has what I call "The Pixar Effect". The logo attracts moviegoers. Could go either way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NinjaPug (Post 1324540)

A Marvel film about relatively unknown characters that has been out for a week already.

The most popular Marvel characters are still relatively unknown if you want to make that argument.

Point is, it's still a part of this Marvel Universe which has been incredibly popular, and the characters are now fairly well known in that respect.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NinjaPug (Post 1324540)

A Marvel film about relatively unknown characters that has been out for a week already.

stop reaching....

this movie is gonna shell shock the hell out of guardians.
i know my gf and bestfriend is gonna go see it with her brother tomorrow evening. myself i'll see it around 1-2pm tomorrow. concidering how many none fans and fans and children will see this movie, there is no doubt in my mind that it will make tons of cash over the weekend.

weather it beats guardians or not really doesn't matter. but the sheer fact that people all over america will get together to see ninja turtles is always a major event.:tgrin: