25,000 Russians killed in Ukraine

[Sumac]

Originally Posted by FredWolfLeonardo

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-preparing-colossal-war-nato-andrey-gurulyov-1716810

Russian Major General has said that Russia is preparing for 'big, colossal war' with NATO.

The video was tweeted by journalist and Russia-watcher Julia Davis, who wrote: "current mood in Russia: they are not interested in peace or negotiations...State Duma member, Major General Andrei Gurulyov says that Russia is ready for a big, colossal war."

Before February, I'd say they are bluffing, but now I am not so sure.
It seems, that Russian government is extremely detached from reality, so whatever they do should not come as a surprise.

Whether they are insane and believe themselves to be some sort of messiahs or think they are some super-geniuses playing 5D chess - they are not in a good contact with that world.

[IMJ]

Originally Posted by Sumac

Before February, I'd say they are bluffing, but now I am not so sure.
It seems, that Russian government is extremely detached from reality, so whatever they do should not come as a surprise.

Whether they are insane and believe themselves to be some sort of messiahs or think they are some super-geniuses playing 5D chess - they are not in a good contact with that world.

The thing is that the deployment losses in Ukraine has to mean that Russia would need a significant "reset" period for it's military to stage such a war.

Not saying by any means that they've thrown their entire military into Ukraine, but the losses in Ukraine have certainly put a dent in their manpower-and-ground-army.

So basically a conflict with Nato and Russia would have to mean that Russia would be launching ICBM's at Nato member countries.

[CyberCubed]

The fact that they can't even handle Ukraine and they think they can attack other European countries? Outside of using nukes, the rest of Europe will come down on Russia like a hammer let alone if the U.S. gets involved.

Their only hope is if they get some alliance with China but I don't think the Chinese would want to throw away their own lives to help Russia.

[FredWolfLeonardo]

They are handling Ukraine though, even if not in a Blitzkrieg style. 25,000 losses is a huge number don't get me wrong, but compared to their total number of military personnel and potential conscripts, Russia still has plenty of manpower left.

Ukraine on the other hand is losing entire cities and has a much, much smaller army so they are slowly being bled to death. One side is only using a small percentage of their army, and the other side is fighting for their life and still being devastated.

[CyberCubed]

Russia is 3 times the size of Ukraine, the fact that in 3-4+ months time they barely made any progress and lost 25,000 or so troops, not to mention tanks, artillery, etc. is embarrassing. Yes Ukraine has taken heavy losses too, but they are being given more tanks and support from other countries.

It honestly makes the Russian military look pathetic. They can't even conquer this country that's right next to them, what would they do to any major country of the world?

[FredWolfLeonardo]

If history has taught us anything, it is to never underestimate the Russians.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by CyberCubed

Russia is 3 times the size of Ukraine, the fact that in 3-4+ months time they barely made any progress and lost 25,000 or so troops, not to mention tanks, artillery, etc. is embarrassing. Yes Ukraine has taken heavy losses too, but they are being given more tanks and support from other countries.

It honestly makes the Russian military look pathetic. They can't even conquer this country that's right next to them, what would they do to any major country of the world?

The thing is, they CAN. A few tactical nuclear strikes and that's all she wrote.

[Sumac]

Originally Posted by CyberCubed

The fact that they can't even handle Ukraine and they think they can attack other European countries? Outside of using nukes, the rest of Europe will come down on Russia like a hammer let alone if the U.S. gets involved.

That is precisely why I am puzzled by anti-NATO warmongering.

Everyone could see that Russian army is neither modern, nor well trained and the only way they can advance is by turning enemy territory into a burnt desert (which means they need to restore it later) and even than, they achievements are very modest.

And that is against Ukraine army, which is not the same as NATO troops. So, question what chance Russians has against NATO? Outside of throwing nukes left and right?

There is no way they can win it. Even with nukes it will be just a delay before inevitable defeat.

Originally Posted by CyberCubed

Their only hope is if they get some alliance with China but I don't think the Chinese would want to throw away their own lives to help Russia.

China almost guaranteed to stay away from this.
Most likely they will wait until Russia collapse and scoop whatever left of the country under their influence. And it will cost them nothing.

Originally Posted by FredWolfLeonardo

They are handling Ukraine though, even if not in a Blitzkrieg style. 25,000 losses is a huge number don't get me wrong, but compared to their total number of military personnel and potential conscripts, Russia still has plenty of manpower left.

Most of those people are badly trained and have low morale.
I know they are using mercs as a canon fodder, but at some point quantity of losses will become too much.
You can't win modern war with some mercs with kalashnikovs, like in 50s.

Originally Posted by FredWolfLeonardo

Ukraine on the other hand is losing entire cities and has a much, much smaller army so they are slowly being bled to death. One side is only using a small percentage of their army, and the other side is fighting for their life and still being devastated.

Not exactly: Ukranians are motivated and they have technical advantage, thanks to the West.
They obviously have losses, but so far it seems they force Russian army to put too much forces to just get where they are now. If anything it is a Russian army and state, which is being slowly bled.

Originally Posted by FredWolfLeonardo

If history has taught us anything, it is to never underestimate the Russians.

When they are on defensive or counter-attacking.

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

The thing is, they CAN. A few tactical nuclear strikes and that's all she wrote.

It would mean either an all out nuclear war without a winner or a total economic blockade, which most likely will be supported by China, since they would not fancy neighbor throwing nukes.

[IMJ]

Just to the greater point here, I have to say that there is very likely a significant difference between fighting a Russian troop who has been sent to invade a country and doesn't really want any part of the nonsense, as opposed to fighting a Russian troop protecting Russia or otherwise motivated to believe in the battle.

[CyberCubed]

That's probably why Ukraine is able to hold them back, they're the country being invaded and their troops have morale on their side. They're basically fighting to protect their homeland. Being backed by every western country also helps.

Russia are the "villains" in this war. And in every story the villains usually lose. Honestly it's only a matter of time before Putin is done for, especially if those rumors of him having cancer are actually true.

[Coola Yagami]

I wonder if it would be possible for some Russian soldiers to just side with Ukraine and live there under a new identity away from Russia under the guise that he died in battle or whatever. Has anyone even done that before, is it even possible to do that without ever being caught? Of course the guy would never have to set foot in Russia ever again but that would be kind of the point to get away from Putin's insanity.

[IndigoErth]

That's what I'm saying, surrender and seek asylum and, if granted, disappear. (Or just try to disappear, but might be tough if you're only there with just the enemy clothes on your back.) Sad for their families who may think they died or may not get word from them for a long time, but for an individual it's a win for both if it's one less person causing/provoking bloodshed, destruction, and the "traitor" Russian troop might be free to eventually find a life somewhere with greater freedom? I dunno... easier said than done I'm sure and might end up behind bars a while instead, but not sure if that's really worse than fighting a war you don't personally want.

[Coola Yagami]

Originally Posted by IndigoErth

That's what I'm saying, surrender and seek asylum and, if granted, disappear. (Or just try to disappear, but might be tough if you're only there with just the enemy clothes on your back.) Sad for their families who may think they died or may not get word from them for a long time, but for an individual it's a win for both if it's one less person causing/provoking bloodshed, destruction, and the "traitor" Russian troop might be free to eventually find a life somewhere with greater freedom? I dunno... easier said than done I'm sure and might end up behind bars a while instead, but not sure if that's really worse than fighting a war you don't personally want.

Maybe wait til Putin is closer to knocking on death's door? But I mean in terms of the soldier, death is death, either being killed in battle by a Ukrainian or being killed by your own for being a traitor. The family would be losing him one way or the other.

It would just have to be on the super duper downlow because obvious if rumors spread that Ukraine was taking in and hiding Russian refuges, they'd be more inclined just bomb those areas even more.

[IMJ]

Originally Posted by Coola Yagami

I wonder if it would be possible for some Russian soldiers to just side with Ukraine and live there under a new identity away from Russia under the guise that he died in battle or whatever. Has anyone even done that before, is it even possible to do that without ever being caught? Of course the guy would never have to set foot in Russia ever again but that would be kind of the point to get away from Putin's insanity.

There was announcement from the President of Ukraine early on in the invasion that he would do just that for Russian troops who would surrender and defect.

[Sumac]

Originally Posted by Coola Yagami

Of course the guy would never have to set foot in Russia ever again but that would be kind of the point to get away from Putin's insanity.

Knowing current regime, they might start seeking revenge against families of deserters. At least, that's what they do with families of politicians in the opposition, who managed to escape from Russia.

[Coola Yagami]

Originally Posted by Sumac

Knowing current regime, they might start seeking revenge against families of deserters. At least, that's what they do with families of politicians in the opposition, who managed to escape from Russia.

That's only if they find out. That's why I'm saying they can always lie and say they were killed in battle. Leave a bloody uniform lying around, idk.

[Sumac]

Originally Posted by Coola Yagami

That's only if they find out. That's why I'm saying they can always lie and say they were killed in battle. Leave a bloody uniform lying around, idk.

Most people won't bother with it, they just escape.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

The thing is, they CAN. A few tactical nuclear strikes and that's all she wrote.

Originally Posted by Sumac

It would mean either an all out nuclear war without a winner or a total economic blockade, which most likely will be supported by China, since they would not fancy neighbor throwing nukes.

Of course I know. I'm just saying, it was said that they couldn't. They CAN. This is an option on the table. Particularly after Ukraine denuclearized and how yikes that was in retrospect (as in "Whoops!"). It would be an end run/suicide run, but it is something they can do, absolutely.

[FredWolfLeonardo]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...les-on-belarus

Russia’s defence minister tells President Vladimir Putin that Moscow’s forces “have established full control over the city of Lysychansk” in Ukraine’s Luhansk region.

Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher, reporting from Kyiv, says if the capture of Lysychansk is confirmed, it would mean that the Russians have control of the whole of the Luhansk region.

“Add that to the gains that the Russians already made in Donetsk, that means that the whole of the Donbas area would be under Russia’s control,” he said.

“That is strategically significant because that is where the Russians moved their military attention to after they failed to move into Kyiv in the early days of the war when they were beaten back from the capital.”

[Original TMNT Cartoon Fan]

Originally Posted by CyberCubed

Their only hope is if they get some alliance with China but I don't think the Chinese would want to throw away their own lives to help Russia.

China are just laughing as Russia's economy collapses.