TMNT 2 Box Office Predictions and Results

[TigerClaw]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

I forgot about those 2 movies are they R Rated movies though.

I find it strange that we get Finding Dory in late July here.

The Conjuring 2 is rated R, while Now You See Me 2 is PG-13

[Bry]

Not strictly on topic, but: 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles' Writers Sign First-Look Deal With Paramount

...I wonder if Paramount'll wish they waited until Monday to put that in writing?

[JTH]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

I think they chose the wrong date for TMNT 2, maybe should of kept the August date.

Even though it's doing **** an opening weekend it may do well during the week or next weekend. Warcraft is next weekend, does anyone think Warcraft will do well or bomb, if it bombs TMNT 2 could get the 2nd weekend at no 1.

They followed the money like most companies do.

June is statically proven to be a much more profitable month for movies than August.

In the past 10 years, August has only had 2 movies make more than 200 million domestically at the box office (Guardians of the Galaxy & One of the Bourne Movies, I think it's Bourne Identity)

June has had a 200 million box office grossing movie every year since 2004, and 23 in total. Plus it's the same month Bay puts out all his Transformers movies, also a Paramount production so they clearly thought it would fare better.

It's simply because the first movie was not well received. Good/Bad movies affect future movies accordingly. Bay's Transformers movies are a perfect example.

Transformers was praised by most, the 2nd Transformers made more than the first, the second stunk, the 3rd one made less, the 3rd stunk, the 4th one made less than that.

It's the case from everything from Star Wars to A&tC. Quality of movie affects your future releases, it didn't matter when TMNT 2 came out, the same thing would have happened. Heck it's not like it had a stiff competition with it going head to head.

[myconius]

there's no way i'd have been able to wait till july or august for this movie!

[Shark_Blade]

They faced the mighty Guardians of Galaxy last time, it turned out well and fine. This one could be doing well too, maybe greater.

If it doesn't, who cares. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It's not the end of the world. Enjoy the movie.

[The Deadman]

Originally Posted by Bry

Hard to say, really... Warcraft is performing well internationally, but there's no guarantee that'll apply to the North American market.

The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 also come out next week, and they all have pretty wide openings. That's not all "direct" competition necessarily, but that is a lot of movies vying for the grown-up audience. And marketing this almost exclusively to the kids might have been a mistake, because Finding Dory is going to bury it in two weeks.

TMNT2 cost $135m to produce and at least $35m to market (likely a fair amount more), so... I can't see anyone at Paramount smiling about these numbers.

Id like to think Warcraft is only performing well overseas because the game franchise is well received there. If a League of Legends movie came out it would probably do well in the Asian market but not the US market.

Originally Posted by Shark_Blade

They faced the mighty Guardians of Galaxy last time, it turned out well and fine. This one could be doing well too, maybe greater.

If it doesn't, who cares. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It's not the end of the world. Enjoy the movie.

But it is in regards to the direction of a movie franchise, something you apparently havent grasped just yet.

[Vicky82]

If this bombs then there won't be a 3rd movie and I just bit worried that Nickelodeon might cancel the Nick show because of it.

Nickelodeon and Viacom probably think people are losing interest, cancel everything (except for the IDW comic) but reboot it about 5 or 10 years later.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

If this bombs then there won't be a 3rd movie and I just bit worried that Nickelodeon might cancel the Nick show because of it.

If this is considered a flop there might not be a third movie of this series, but it'll reboot sooner or later. That's pretty much a guarantee. Though they'll likely go in a different direction when they do (which I would be more than fine with).

And I don't see Nick effectively cancelling the property outright... The show and the movies don't have much connection at all, so as long as the show's still performing at a profitable level I would imagine/hope they'd leave it be.

But I guess you can't necessarily apply logic to corporate-think.

[TrickOrTreater]

Originally Posted by Shark_Blade

This one could be doing well too, maybe greater.

It won't.

If it doesn't, who cares. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It's not the end of the world. Enjoy the movie.

If it tanks like they're projecting it, deservedly so, no third movie.

[Shark_Blade]

Originally Posted by TrickOrTreater

It won't.

Like you think the first one won't too? Pah.

You know nothing, no one here does.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Shark_Blade

Like you think the first one won't too? Pah.

You know nothing, no one here does.

...listen, it might do okay in the end if the international box office makes up the difference, or there's some miraculous recovery domestically, but the odds are hugely against it doing "greater" than the last movie. Or even getting close to it, really. It's performing at 50% of BayTurtles 2014 so far, and it's up against much heavier competition in the most crowded box office season of the year.

Just saying, I wouldn't hold my breath.

[neatoman]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

If this bombs then there won't be a 3rd movie and I just bit worried that Nickelodeon might cancel the Nick show because of it.

Nickelodeon and Viacom probably think people are losing interest, cancel everything (except for the IDW comic) but reboot it about 5 or 10 years later.

If the movie series get shelved, good riddance. If it means the end of the Nickelodeon cartoon... Eh, doesn't matter it has already lasted longer than most other cartoons and it has gotten increasingly lackluster anyway. Besides if the movie series continues to be successful, chances are that it would get retooled into something resembling the movies or replaced by a reboot more in line with the movies from the start.

As long as IDW keeps publishing good TMNT comics, I'm happy.

[The Deadman]

Yep, Shark has zero clue as to how all that works.

[ZariusTwo]

Originally Posted by neatoman

If the movie series get shelved, good riddance. If it means the end of the Nickelodeon cartoon....

..Good riddance.

[vicsavage]

Originally Posted by Bry

Not strictly on topic, but: 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles' Writers Sign First-Look Deal With Paramount

...I wonder if Paramount'll wish they waited until Monday to put that in writing?

There were writers?

[Shark_Blade]

Originally Posted by Bry

Just saying, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Neither am I. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Like last time, I didn't care and it turns out well.

Originally Posted by The Deadman

Yep, Shark has zero clue as to how all that works.

You need to get a clue yourself. Assuming blindly strangers on internet you don't know, so full of yourself.

[Powder]

I know some people will trash me for this fanboy conspiracy stuff, but I am 100% certain that it did not perform as well last time (2014) as they claimed it did. I think strings were pulled, hush money was spread, & thus the numbers were doctored so they could save face. There's budgetary issues which concern the insane amount of re-shoots & re-working of the project, they said they shot three films worth of material so that's like at least 2 hours of scenes that went un-used, some of which having been animated before being ultimately discarded, which would also include a crap-ton of Sach's recorded dialogue as Shredder. It's like flushing money down the toilet. They'd be hard pressed to tie all that up properly with the suits, one assumes. They clearly had nothing left to spend on marketing, considering what little we got came late & was embarrassingly poor (like Photoshopped stock art, for example). It was critically panned, & short of a few enthusiastic people here & there, most of the feedback I saw & heard was immensely negative. The theater I was in had 5 people including me at the debut screening, & there were audible groans from all attending. Then this one comes out, & in the opening flourishes we see the logos for like 5 sketchy ass Chinese film investment companies. As far as I'm concerned, they've already been faking the funk & this one was a beg & borrow situation. So if it does not do as well as they hope, I can't see there being a third option to get it made unless they shoot solely for eastern audiences (assuming it performs decently overseas).

[ToTheNines]

Originally Posted by ZariusTwo

..Good riddance.

Zari Zari, quite contrary.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Powder

I know some people will trash me for this fanboy conspiracy stuff, but I am 100% certain that it did not perform as well last time (2014) as they claimed it did. I think strings were pulled, hush money was spread, & thus the numbers were doctored so they could save face. There's budgetary issues which concern the insane amount of re-shoots & re-working of the project, they said they shot three films worth of material so that's like at least 2 hours of scenes that went un-used, some of which having been animated before being ultimately discarded, which would also include a crap-ton of Sach's recorded dialogue as Shredder. It's like flushing money down the toilet. They'd be hard pressed to tie all that up properly with the suits, one assumes. They clearly had nothing left to spend on marketing, considering what little we got came late & was embarrassingly poor (like Photoshopped stock art, for example). It was critically panned, & short of a few enthusiastic people here & there, most of the feedback I saw & heard was immensely negative. The theater I was in had 5 people including me at the debut screening, & there were audible groans from all attending. Then this one comes out, & in the opening flourishes we see the logos for like 5 sketchy ass Chinese film investment companies. As far as I'm concerned, they've already been faking the funk & this one was a beg & borrow situation. So if it does not do as well as they hope, I can't see there being a third option to get it made unless they shoot solely for eastern audiences (assuming it performs decently overseas).

I don't usually go for conspiracy theories, but...

[TrickOrTreater]

Just looked at box office mojo daily intake for both movies.

OUCH.

25 million on friday for the first movie vs 12 million on friday for THIS movie which INCLUDES 2 million on Thursday night.

OUCH.