TMNT 2 Box Office Predictions and Results

[Bry]

One more set of predictions from Box Office Mojo:

The Conjuring 2 - $36.27 M
Now You See Me 2 - $24.01 M
Warcraft - $20.01 M
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - $15.18 M
Me Before You - $12.06 M
X-Men: Apocalypse - $11.41 M

Taking the average of these predictions ($14.6m), we're looking at a potential drop of 58.6% this weekend. So with the kind of competition it's facing in the weeks to come, it looks like it'll be lucky to crack $100m domestic. It's possible it'll pass that, but if it does, it'll likely be barely.

Keeping in mind, the 2014 movie had a smaller drop of 56.5% on its second weekend and faced much less competition. Ultimately its first weekend accounted for 34.3% of its total domestic gross. If this movie were to perform the same compared to its opening weekend, its final domestic gross would be $102.9m. But even that's being generous.

So if things shape up the way the projections are looking, this will very likely be the only TMNT movie not to to take in more than its production budget domestically, and the only one to fall considerably short of it. A dubious honour, but I guess they have to take what they can get.

[Andrew NDB]

This excellent news has me very hungry now.

[CyberCubed]

So is Paramount really taking a $70 million loss on this movie? Am I reading this right?

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by CyberCubed

So is Paramount really taking a $70 million loss on this movie? Am I reading this right?

At least. And don't let the foreign box office fool you... the studio gets very little of that actually back into their pockets.

[Vicky82]

Thursday night opening report

http://pro.boxoffice.com/thursday-ni...-starts-1-75m/

Friday Update: Warner Bros. reports that The Conjuring 2 scared up $3.4 million from Thursday night’s first shows, coming in just ahead of the $3.3 million earned by the first film in July 2013 and significantly ahead of Insidious Chapter 3‘s $1.55 million last June. We expect more front-loading this time around due to the film’s nature as a sequel, but it remains on course for a weekend take in the low-to-mid $30 millions.

Warcraft bowed to $3.1 million last night, a relatively healthy start for the video game adaptation. Unfortunately, comparisons are few and far between as the film isn’t expected to branch out beyond the core gamer audience, which we expect to result in sharp front-loading toward Thursday night and Friday.

Meanwhile, Now You See Me 2 pulled in $1.75 million, topping its predecessor’s $1.5 million in May 2013. Again, its nature as a sequel should lead to more front-loading than the first film. A weekend in the low-to-mid $20 millions appears likely.

[CyberCubed]

So the original budget was $135 million, and I imagine another $30 million at the least for advertising?

So if sales in the U.S. are pretty much nearly done it won't even crack $100 million, which still leaves at least $60 million or more unaccounted for.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by CyberCubed

So the original budget was $135 million, and I imagine another $30 million at the least for advertising?

It's very likely the marketing budget is much closer to 100 million.

[beeshaw]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

It's very likely the marketing budget is much closer to 100 million.

Most likely.

But endorsements, promotional partners, tie-ins and whatnot would most likely offset the bulk of that. It normally does.

[Ramboraph4life aka Matt]

Originally Posted by CyberCubed

So the original budget was $135 million, and I imagine another $30 million at the least for advertising?

$30 million for advertising? lol I guarantee 100% that it was way, way, way, way more than that.

It even had a Super Bowl Ad. I remember hearing at one point that it costs at least $4 million to get even ONE 30 second Super Bowl Ad. So they banked a lot on this sequel because of Nostalgia (Technodrome, Krang, Bebop, Rocksteady, Casey, Baxter).

Which goes to show you...perhaps they should have concentrated on characters, story (yes, even for at TMNT film), designs based on the source (aka the Turtles looking ugly as sin and more juiced up than Ivan Drago...just look at the positive responses to Spider-Man in Civil War or Deadpool...or even Colossus in Deadpool..let alone turning Casey into a Calvin Klein model), Martial Arts/Fights for your action in a flick with Ninja in the title, emotion for characters, good storytelling, and zero Megan Fox instead of relying on Nostalgia Wank-Fests to get you by.

After The Conjuring 2 beats it, ID4 2 will destroy it (I don't even look forward to ID4 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did the numbers Jurassic World did in the past).

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by Ramboraph4life aka Matt

$30 million for advertising? lol I guarantee 100% that it was way, way, way, way more than that.

It even had a Super Bowl Ad. I remember hearing at one point that it costs at least $4 million to get even ONE 30 second Super Bowl Ad. So they banked a lot on this sequel because of Nostalgia (Technodrome, Krang, Bebop, Rocksteady, Casey, Baxter).

Which goes to show you...perhaps they should have concentrated on characters, story (yes, even for at TMNT film), designs based on the source (aka the Turtles looking ugly as sin and more juiced up than Ivan Drago...just look at the positive responses to Spider-Man in Civil War or Deadpool...or even Colossus in Deadpool..let alone turning Casey into a Calvin Klein model), Martial Arts/Fights for your action in a flick with Ninja in the title, emotion for characters, good storytelling, and zero Megan Fox instead of relying on Nostalgia Wank-Fests to get you by.

After The Conjuring 2 beats it, ID4 2 will destroy it (I don't even look forward to ID4 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did the numbers Jurassic World did in the past).

I assume ID4 2 is Independence Day 2

Finding Dory will destroy TMNT 2 not Independence Day 2 as it's out next week in the US.

I doubt Independence Day 2 will do similar numbers to Jurassic Park because of Finding Dory out a week earlier and 2016 seems to be a bad year for sequels but I probably end up being wrong.

[Bry]

Thursday box office results!

1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 - $2,186,557
2. Me Before You - $1,950,623
3. X-Men: Apocalypse - $1,876,413

All within about $310,000 of each other.

And to celebrate a week of release, here's the Box Office Mojo comparison of first week domestic box office, 2014 vs. 2016:

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by Bry

Thursday box office results!



All within about $310,000 of each other.

And to celebrate a week of release, here's the Box Office Mojo comparison of first week domestic box office, 2014 vs. 2016:

http://s33.postimg.org/4dtckuprz/IMG...610_153755.jpg

[neatoman]

Originally Posted by Bry

Thursday box office results!



All within about $310,000 of each other.

And to celebrate a week of release, here's the Box Office Mojo comparison of first week domestic box office, 2014 vs. 2016:

http://s33.postimg.org/4dtckuprz/IMG...610_153755.jpg

According to some quick calculations, if this movie follows the same pattern the domestic gross will be... roughly 99 million... Wow, I know that ignores the world wide income but still, barely/not even 100?

[Leolead]

How come the fans of the movie disappeared from this thread? :p Props to you, Vicky.

[Bry]

More up-to-date info and predictions from Deadline, taking Friday matinees into account. The bit on BayTurtles 2:

Meanwhile, Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 is being battered by all the frosh competition for males. It’s likely to fall by 60% in its second frame for $14M and a 10-day run of $60.3M.

[samxsteal]

Originally Posted by Leolead

How come the fans of the movie disappeared from this thread? :p Props to you, Vicky.

Because when ever they post some a-hole has to post pictures to belittle them so why would they stay and keep posting Facebook has a pretty positive groups of.people talking about the movie.

But you know a-holes seem to be able to get away with it so whatever

[Commenter 42]

[Vicky82]

I admit the plant pictures were funny at first but they've started to become OTT now.

I have a feeling you guys are going to get in trouble, the mods are going to end up locking more threads and going to waste there free time clearing them up.

You guys have to realize there are probably under 16 year olds here and they probably love TMNT 2 but end up feeling they are getting bullied, being intimidated and getting plant pictures posted at them by the haters. Then I expect the mods are going to get alot of complaints for it.

Can't you guys cool it now.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

I admit the plant pictures were funny at first but they've started to become OTT now.

I have a feeling you guys are going to get in trouble, the mods are going to end up locking more threads and going to waste there free time clearing them up.

You guys have to realize there are probably under 16 year olds here and they probably love TMNT 2 but end up feeling they are getting bullied, being intimidated and getting plant pictures posted at them by the haters. Then I expect the mods are going to get alot of complaints for it.

Can't you guys cool it now.

*squints at Vicky82's Join Date, looks over at Commenter 42*

This one's clear. Although wrong.

[samxsteal]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

*squints at Vicky82's Join Date, looks over at Commenter 42*

This one's clear. Although wrong.

You do realize that what you're doing is incredibly rude and hurtful to new fans.... oh that's right you could give to sh!ts about other people. All you care about is getting what you want like a selfish prick. I'm glad you enjoy making fun of others, and preventing this place from being hospitable to new fans. Which goes against what this forum even stands for. And the fact that you so vehemently despise the majority of what this franchise has to offer makes me wonder why you're even here.