TMNT 2 Box Office Predictions and Results

[killerkobra]

I went solo to see OOTS in the theater Thursday June 16, 9:30pm show. Literally the only person in the auditorium.... First time in my life that this has happened. Excellent movie watching experience, even though I was not a massive fan of the movie.

[IndigoErth]

My mom and I went to a late one, too. On purpose, on a Sunday night, as I wanted it quiet. We almost got a private screening, but three others showed up just before it started.

Though it may partly also be the hour, not solely lack of interest. Saw 2014 on it's second day, but also a late show. More people than this one, but still relatively quiet. Though that one on the other hand did quite well its first weekend.

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by killerkobra

I went solo to see OOTS in the theater Thursday June 16, 9:30pm show. Literally the only person in the auditorium.... First time in my life that this has happened. Excellent movie watching experience, even though I was not a massive fan of the movie.

http://i938.photobucket.com/albums/a...pshkt7kgcb.jpg

Wait, there was Blood in this movie????????????

I was looking at that sign and thinking, 'are you in the right screen room'

[Foombamaroom]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

Wait, there was Blood in this movie????????????

I was looking at that sign and thinking, 'are you in the right screen room'

Oh, that's a video game rating, not a movie one. It must be for an ad before the movie or something.

[ToTheNines]

Originally Posted by IndigoErth

Wasn't even sure where this Melo Turtles stuff was sold at until five minutes ago. Just looked at Macy's site...meh. The Turtles are a niche interest enough, making most of it also basketball themed (and putting his name pretty prominent on much of it) is super niche. Like the Turtles and basketball AND this guy? Well you're in luck! For most everyone else in the world... eh.

This is also the one that was only doing kids stuff, wasn't it. Also a bad move.

I agree. I love Turtles (obviously) and I actually am a basketball fan, but I grew up in Illinois, hence my allegiance to the Bulls. So I'm not buying anything with Carmello's name all over it.

And he's certainly not as popular as Curry, James or Durant. Then again, the Knicks are NYC-based, so I respect them for at least caring about that.

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by Foombamaroom

Oh, that's a video game rating, not a movie one. It must be for an ad before the movie or something.

Oh right, I thought it was a bit weird

[IndigoErth]

Originally Posted by ToTheNines

I agree. I love Turtles (obviously) and I actually am a basketball fan, but I grew up in Illinois, hence my allegiance to the Bulls. So I'm not buying anything with Carmello's name all over it.

Good point, I forgot how competitive sports fans also are vs opposing teams/players - talk about limiting the possible buyers. Who ever thought that was a good idea.

[Ramboraph4life aka Matt]

Originally Posted by Foombamaroom

Oh, that's a video game rating, not a movie one. It must be for an ad before the movie or something.

It's ironic that the T Rating and descriptions for it just bring about a better TMNT film in one's head than the film that would appear on the screen.

[killerkobra]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

Wait, there was Blood in this movie????????????

I was looking at that sign and thinking, 'are you in the right screen room'

Those pics were taken like 2 minutes before the previews started. That was an ad for a video game. Forget which one.

[Coola Yagami]

The cool thing about being alone in a movie theater is you can kinda pretend that you're a multi millionaire and act like it's your own personal home theater.

[ZariusTwo]

Yeah, you get a ticket with your designated seat and you're like "f*ck that noise, I'll sit anywhere"

Though I tend to do that even in packed houses anyway, I usually get lucky

[Bry]

Kind of what one would expect considering its performance so far, but what the hell, here's a weekend forecast update!

Forecast from Box Office Mojo:

Finding Dory (4,305 theaters) - $81 M
Independence Day: Resurgence (4,068 theaters) - $48.41 M
Central Intelligence (3,508 theaters) - $18.5 M
The Shallows (2,962 theaters) - $12.5 M
Free State of Jones (2,815 theaters) - $9.29 M
The Conjuring 2 (3,033 theaters) - $6.45 M
Now You See Me 2 (2,745 theaters) - $4.31 M
Warcraft (1,942 theaters) - $2.75 M
X-Men: Apocalypse (1,679 theaters) - $2.55 M
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (1,947 theaters) - $2.42 M

And from Deadline:

1).Finding Dory (DIS), 4,305 theaters / $22.7M Fri. (-59%)/ 3-day cume: $74.5M (-45%)/Total cume:$287.8/Wk 2

2). Independence Day: Resurgence (FOX), 4,068 theaters / $17.5M Fri. (includes $4M previews) / 3-day cume: $45M/Wk 1

3). Central Intelligence (WB/NL/UNI), 3,508 theaters / $5.4M Fri. (-58%) / 3-day cume: $18.2M (-49%)/Total cume: $69.1M/Wk 2

4).The Shallows (SONY), 2,962 theaters / $6.7M Fri. (includes $1.3M previews) / 3-day cume: $16-17M /Wk 1

5).Free State of Jones (STX), 2,815 theaters / $2.7M Fri. (includes $365K previews) / 3-day cume: $7.7M/Wk 1

6). Conjuring 2 (WB/NL), 3,033 theaters (-323) / $2.5M Fri. (-54%) / 3-day cume: $7.3M (-51%)/Total cume:$86.5M/Wk 3

7). Now You See Me 2 (LG), 2,745 theaters (-487)/ $1.6M Fri. (-44%) / 3-day cume: $5.3M (-43%)/ Total cume:$51.7M/Wk 3

. X-Men: Apocalypse (FOX), 1,679 theaters (-953) / $716K Fri. (-49%) / 3-day cume: $2.6M (-51%) /Total cume: $151.2M/Wk 5

9). Warcraft (UNI/LEG), 1,952 theaters (-1,454) / $642k Fri. (-67%) / 3-day cume: $2.3M (-69%)/ Total cume:$44M/Wk 3

10). Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (PAR), 1,947 theaters (-1,139)/ $664k Fri. (-56%) / 3-day cume: $2.19M (-58%)/Total Cume:$76.9M/Wk 4

Both have it dropping to #10. Even hitting $100m domestic seems... very unlikely at this point.

[TrickOrTreater]

Originally Posted by Bry

Kind of what one would expect considering its performance so far, but what the hell, here's a weekend forecast update!

Forecast from Box Office Mojo:



And from Deadline:



Both have it dropping to #10. Even hitting $100m domestic seems... very unlikely at this point.

[myconius]

i just googled the Tmnt2 OoTS box office and it says it's made 493.3 million USD.
box office mojo is saying it's made and estimated Worldwide total of $147,469,439

something sounds hinky!

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by myconius

i just googled the Tmnt2 OoTS box office and it says it's made 493.3 million USD.
box office mojo is saying it's made and estimated Worldwide total of $147,469,439

something sounds hinky!

The first movie made $493M, It's a typo mistake.

[ernesth100]

Well it made it over the production budget jist barely...is that good?

[Bry]

Originally Posted by ernesth100

Well it made it over the production budget jist barely...is that good?

Nnnot really, no. For starters, the box office numbers aren't pure profit for the studio -- theatres take a chunk of the profits, increasingly as time goes on (I believe there's a deal where the studio gets something like 90% of the opening weekend, and the theatre's cut goes up considerably afterward), and foreign box office generally means other distributors are taking their cut as well. Studios get more of the domestic box office than they do the international. A lot more in many cases.

Hollywood accounting is notoriously secretive, but generally I believe it's said that a movie has to make at least twice its budget worldwide to break even.

[NinjaPug]

The general rule of thumb is 2.5x the production budget to break even.

[myconius]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

The first movie made $493M, It's a typo mistake.

ah! that makes sense. thanks

[TigerClaw]

Originally Posted by Panda_Kahn_fan

What happens now depends on Chinese and Japanese ticket sales, merchandise sales, and DVD/blu-ray sales. My hope is this thing makes enough that Viacom/Paramount gets the message people are still hungry for TMNT, but demand a better, non-bay/platinum dunes product.

If it does very well in China, they will most likely greenlight the 3rd one, since China would be the one paying for it, I recall how Transformers Age of Extinction was also funded in China, they spent half of the budget on it to film in China.

Maybe the 3rd movie could have the Turtles going on an adventure in China.