Corona Virus/Dow Jones taking a hit/possible recession

[Andrew NDB]

So there's a lot coming out now about the Dow Jones taking a bit hit as a result of the Corona Virus and all, and how this may be Trump's Hurricane Katrina and such.

https://www.investors.com/market-tre...e-beyond-meat/

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...-moment-126862

Will quote a post I've seen elsewhere:

The biggest economic problem with Coronavirus is China's quarantines. 50M people are confined to their homes in and around Wuhan, a further 500M cannot travel outside their town/city. All manufacturers were ordered to cease work, bringing exports from China to a standstill. The quarantines are costing China billions of dollars a day and if we believe their stats they have been only mildly successful at containing the spread of Coronavirus "inside China."

China is giving every Hong Kong citizen $10,000USD to try and quell unrest and help mitigate the fiscal hit citizens are about to take.

Canada "will not quarantine" per the Canadian Government. This is because A) Legally quarantines violate our Charter Rights B) With a 27 day incubation period quarantines are in-effective and C) The economy cannot be allowed to collapse so that Food, Water & Medicine must continue to flow unebated or more people will die.

Markets wouldn't be hit nearly this hard if China didn't quarantine.
While quarantines are effective with certain pathogens that have short incubation periods, China made a catastrophic mistake quarantining over Coronavirus.

Iran is completely over run, the Deputy Health Minister is ill, the Vice President is ill. Iran borders China, Afghanistan and Pakistan. China cannot stop Coronavirus, they can't even slow it.

Now to do something unthinkable in November. Trump's trade war with China forced a lot of American companies to stockpile made in China goods. The trade war also caused a lot of companies manufacturing in China to relocate manufacturing plants to India, Malaysia.

Trump's trade war likely lessened the blow the US is feeling right now from China's economic hardships.

What's your take? Personally, I think it's a crazy situation that would effect any President in exactly the same manner. I also don't think it's terribly more fatal than the regular bout of flu. A bit, maybe, but it seems like the media is exacerbating things in the ole spinjob to try and create a panic and nosedive the economy to do what Russia and impeachment did not, if you catch my drift.

[newfan]

I haven't sat and worked out the percentage for chance of death going on the number of cases vs deaths but for this to happen it has got to worse than your average flu death rate.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by newfan

I haven't sat and worked out the percentage for chance of death going on the number of cases vs deaths but for this to happen it has got to worse than your average flu death rate.

It is a bit, though I'm only really seeing blanket numbers thrown about. Not about things like, "of the deaths... how many were elderly, or already immuno-compromised," etc..

Things like this, especially now, make my Spidey sense tingle. Kind of like the faked up "statistics" about second hand smoking deaths numbering in the millions every year suddenly being thrown about when there was a sudden push for a certain agenda (that got what it wanted, by the way)... yet no one has actually met anyone that's died of second hand smoke that I've ever known.

And then articles like this come out...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...1FRgLmG77hq7Xk

[IMJ]

Originally Posted by newfan

I haven't sat and worked out the percentage for chance of death going on the number of cases vs deaths but for this to happen it has got to worse than your average flu death rate.

Oh no, this is not the case at all. You don't need a high death toll for markets to respond negatively in an outbreak situation. Before I explain this, the proof is already there - the market drops have been staggering already.

Consider this - the markets respond to productivity declines. When people are sick, there are fewer people out producing all of the stuff that makes markets move. And this includes physical and intellectual property. You don't need a death toll to a market recession to happen. All you need is something that significantly interrupts productivity.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by IMJ

Oh no, this is not the case at all. You don't need a high death toll for markets to respond negatively in an outbreak situation.

Right, but the average 70 year-old investor turning on CNN and seeing, "TOTAL CRISIS! Coronavirus coming to your front door probably tomorrow! Riots expected next week!" is probably going to start selling their stocks, or at least seriously considering doing so.

[IMJ]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

Right, but the average 70 year-old investor turning on CNN and seeing, "TOTAL CRISIS! Coronavirus coming to your front door probably tomorrow! Riots expected next week!" is probably going to start selling their stocks, or at least seriously considering doing so.

Well yeah I mean that goes hand-in-hand with exactly what I was describing above. I don't understand the "but" part of your example.... That would happen with or without excessive deaths from Coronavirus. It is happening. I don't even want to talk about my last 3 day losses.

[oldmanwinters]

There's an old saying that an opportunist thinks: "Never let a good crisis go to waste."

[ranger_scout]

Oh my ! I'm really hoping that they will both be okay and are getting as much help as they can. Hanks has released a statement.

Originally Posted by Tom Hanks

“Hello, folks. Rita and I are down here in Australia. We felt a bit tired, like we had colds, and some body aches. Rita had some chills that came and went. Slight fevers too. To play things right, as is needed in the world right now, we were tested for the Coronavirus, and were found to be positive.

Well, now. What to do next? The Medical Officials have protocols that must be followed. We Hanks’ will be tested observed, and isolated for as long as public health and safety requires. Not much more to it than a one-day-at-a-time approach, no?

We’ll keep the world posted and updated.

Take care of yourselves!”

It happened while the couple was in Australia for production of Baz Luhrmann’s untitled Elvis Presley movie, in which Hanks is playing Presley’s iconic manager Colonel Tom Parker.

Originally Posted by Warner Bros.

We have been made aware that a company member from our Elvis feature film, which is currently in pre-production in The Gold Coast, Australia, has tested positive for COVID-19 (coronavirus),” the statement reads. “We are working closely with the appropriate Australian health agencies to identify and contact anyone who may have come in direct contact with the individual. The health and safety of our company members is always our top priority, and we are taking precautions to protect everyone who works on our productions around the world. The individual who tested positive for COVID-19 is currently receiving treatment.

https://variety.com/2020/film/news/t...us-1203531498/

[Leofan26]

My California State has been declared a State of emergency too. Even flipping Disneyland closed dang. When amusement parks close in our State that's when things hit the roof. Why did Trump ban only Europe? Does he think no one can simply jump countries to get into the US? Hell, why ban when he's letting people who went into that country back into the US? Thata not going to help us.

[Leo656]

Well, this MAY end up being the thing that finally kills me, but not necessarily directly.

My boss told me today that he's 99% certain that we're closing the gym permanently by the end of April. I've been there for ten years.

A sh*tty competitor opened up down the road a few month ago, so we had some bloodletting with that, naturally - most people don't go to a gym expecting results, so 9 out of 10 of them will jump to a $10/month sh*t-shack at the first opportunity even though they're definitely not gonna get the help they need at a place like that - but it had mostly stabilized. But with this whole panic about the pandemic, new enrollments have slowed to a crawl, and with no end in sight it looks like everyone is preparing for the worst. My boss recently conferenced with gym owners all over the country, and he says tons of them are taking "early retirement" and shutting their doors because 1. They can't compete with Planet Fitness and their bullsh*t anyway, and 2. They're all going to be bleeding money for as long as this health crisis is going on. Operating expenses at a gym are a huge money-sink, and most of them operate on a razor-thin profit margin (and a lot of gyms actually lose money and shut down after a few years without ever turning a profit at all).

So, since the lease is up in May, and we're looking to lose at least 50 grand between now and then, he essentially gave me my 6-week notice. Like many people, my wife and I don't have any savings and generally live check-to-check. What has me most concerned, though, is that I really can't see any businesses hiring people until the worst of this is over. So I could literally be completely destitute in a few weeks with no cushion under me or any hope of recovery. I can't even count on getting a job in the same field since gyms are shutting down nationwide over this ordeal. But I don't trust that anyone else will be hiring, either. As of now, I'm planning to hold my nose and fill out a f*cking Wal-Mart application and hope for the best, but what are the odds that'll pan out, seriously?

So yeah, this sucks.

[CylonsKlingonsDaleksOhMy]

Originally Posted by Leo656

well this sucks

Damn, Leo, that's terrible! Good luck... hope things turn up.

What about working at Planet Fitness? I assume that's a no-go?

[Sumac]

Originally Posted by Leo656

So yeah, this sucks.

I hope things will get better for you.

Russia had banned most travels to Europe now.
Also I've heard we get a doctor to check up on people on my job on the next week.

Originally Posted by Voltron

Trump dropped the ball. It's a weapon of his own making. This is what happens when you elect someone who openly admits to "stand by nothing".

You are reminding me about that Roman senator who was always shouting "Carthage should be destroyed".
Its annoying and stupid.

[AquaParade]

Best wishes to you, Leo. And everyone else going through stressful times. I can relate. I'm doing pretty okay financially, as in I have a bit of stability and can afford some entertainment, but I'm jacked up in other ways lately, so I feel y'all. Stay strong, dromers!

[Autbot_Benz]

more proof how much of a slimy dick Trump is

Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
·
20h
MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: NPR Source Says Trump Blocked Coronavirus Testing in January to Aid His Reelection Chances By Keeping US Infection Figures Low

[IndigoErth]

People are nuts. Grocery stores are extra crazy today, more than usual. Now that our state has been confirmed I guess they're freaking out a bit. But really, that crowed is WHY this crap will get spread in the first place. Saw some woman with a frigging tall pyramid of those Lysol/Clorox disinfectant wipes she was trying to carry in a basket, holding this thing as if trying to carry a bolder. Wtf. How many are you REALLY going to use? They'll dry out before she ever even gets through half of them! People like that is why no one else can have any.

I mean, come on... I went to a second of the same chain looking for my wintertime secret weapon. The first and the drug store are wiped out but I got lucky at the last stop. They had two (in the flavor I wanted), but I wasn't a jerk and only got one which should be enough for now and thought it better not to spend so much and someone else can have the other. It's not like stores will never restock again.


Side note... Oh Maine... you didn't want to be left out, followed right behind my DE. West Virginia, Idaho, Alabama, and Alaska... come on, you guys can do it and avoid this thing! lol

Originally Posted by Leo656

Well, this MAY end up being the thing that finally kills me, but not necessarily directly.

My boss told me today that he's 99% certain that we're closing the gym permanently by the end of April. I've been there for ten years.

That sucks, I hope you're able to find something else good that works out well for you. Totally understand, having been through the closing of a job place, too. I just hadn't invested 10 years in it. >.<

Any kind of severance or anything like that at least?

[frank_one]

I'm sorry to hear that, Leo. You seems to be a nice person, I wish you and your wife the best.

[Leo656]

I do my best, as quick to anger as I often am. Thanks for your support.

We'll see what happens. It just really sucks, I've been here for 10 years and it wasn't an easy job to get. And the entire industry I'm in is apparently shutting down so I can't even just go to a new gym, at least not until the panic is over. And even then, I have to take classes again and get re-certified (since every gym wants you to have "their" certification), and most places are a lot more "corporate" and quota-minded than the place I've been at generally is... I got into the business to help people, not hit quotas, and I've heard so many horror stories about gyms that fire you in a month or two if you don't hit your projections. Mentally I'm not cut out for that kind of stress. I once had a therapist tell me point-blank that I'm mentally unfit to work, period, because I have so much depressive anxiety, and that I should try and go on disability for stress, etc., but 1. I'm highly unlikely to qualify, and 2. It wouldn't pay me enough to survive anyway.

I just don't like thinking that everything I've fought and struggled for has all been for nothing, for it to all end like this. Like okay, not to disparage Wal-Mart, or anyone who works there, because odds are that's the only lifeline I'll have at all, and even that will only be if I'm extremely lucky, but I didn't go to school and get all the certifications and then put up with everything I've gone through the last decade-plus just to end up doing that, y'know? It's like if that's where my story ends then I should have just started doing that when I was 17 and not bothered aiming higher in the first place, since it's all for nothing anyway.

My whole life is basically a story of, "Don't bother having aspirations; Real Life is gonna come along and make complete sh*t out of every 'plan' you ever have. And there's not a single thing you can do about it." Because Lord knows this isn't the first time something outside of my control has cost me everything.

Ah well. "It is what it is."

[Andrew NDB]

My work cut me down to 4 days a week instead of 5. Which will be fine for about two months and some change... that's when I run out of sick days to throw at the weekly missing day. There's also the very real concern that they could cut me down from 4 days a week to 0.

[Leo656]

My gut tells me that while the whole thing is very likely going to get worse before it gets better, in the end it will probably pass sooner than people think. Not soon enough, obviously, but I can't see it dragging on indefinitely.

Problem is, in the meantime it's going to do irreparable harm to the global economy. As I said, I can't see anyone hiring until they're sure that the worst is over with, and with so many business either shutting down or downsizing, cutting hours, etc., there's gonna be a whole lot of people feeling the crunch.

I predict a lot of suicides related to financial ruin. I wouldn't doubt it if those numbers end up outnumbering people who actually die from the virus. I'm not gonna lie, it's something I think about whenever my work situation gets uncertain. "Can I even afford to stay alive?" Technically, the answer is no. In the past, I've just gotten lucky, but it's usually only when I'm thisclose to starving to death. So I completely understand why a lot of people might feel like they have no choice, depending on their own circumstances.

In the end, the worst fallout from this whole ordeal may not even be the virus itself. This could take years to recover from, globally. It's not like all the jobs that shut down are going to spring back to life, or all the people who got laid off are going to be able to walk right back in and pick up where they left off. Some will, most won't. I won't.

What a f*cking mess.

[Redeemer]

Listening to the news right now and apparently China is already re-opening and getting rid of population restriction, so it sounds like the worse of it is over for China. Hopefully the rest of the world will turn around even faster.