Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

[ranger_scout]

This information came from a July 11 Huffington Post article. They did a survey, which was conducted from 05/07/2014 to 06/27/2014. Here are some results that concern me a little bit:





http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-d...b_5578363.html

However, I'm sure most of these votes came in before the new trailer was released at the end of June and before people saw it during the opening weekend of Transformers: Age of Extinction. Also, the major marketing had not fully kicked in yet nor had viewers seen the behind-the-scenes special after the Kids Choice Sports Awards yet. On IMDB Pro the movie is ranked #13 on the movie meter this week. I also think tomorrow's promotion at Comic-con will help create more interest.

[MajorViolence]

Holy jeez that's brutal.

[SwiftNinjaFox]

The Huffington Post article was atrocious. After showing those results, they talked about all the things that can be determined about the demographic that is excited for the movie, the majority being in a certain age range, the type of movie, that they're tech savvy, etc.

Not...one...word...about the data on the 82% who said they wouldn't see it. Which means we have no clue if it's the same demographic that said they would or what.

[Warhorse]

Originally Posted by SwiftNinjaFox

The Huffington Post article was atrocious. After showing those results, they talked about all the things that can be determined about the demographic that is excited for the movie, the majority being in a certain age range, the type of movie, that they're tech savvy, etc.

Not...one...word...about the data on the 82% who said they wouldn't see it. Which means we have no clue if it's the same demographic that said they would or what.

Ditto. They could be retired folks for all we know. No offense to the elderly, but I have not seen one elderly person go to see a TMNT movie unless it was with their grandkids.

[ranger_scout]

CNBC believes that the film will do well at the box-office.

That's not all—there are other potentially big films including Paramount's "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" coming out in August.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101868457#.

This guy at comicbookmovie.com believes it will be successful as well.

http://www.comicbookmovie.com/fansit...news/?a=104403

[TigerClaw]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

CNBC believes that the film will do well at the box-office.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/101868457#.

This guy at comicbookmovie.com believes it will be successful as well.

http://www.comicbookmovie.com/fansit...news/?a=104403

Here's the Video.

[Warhorse]

So, word on the street, it's tracking at 37 million OW at the moment.

[pdizzle]

What does OW mean?

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Warhorse

So, word on the street, it's tracking at 37 million OW at the moment.

Slightly less than the projections from boxoffice.com earlier in the month. If their overall domestic projections turn out accurate (approx $100m vs. a $125m production budget) it won't break even domestically. Though... is the $125m budget solely the production budget? If so, the added marketing and distribution budgets mean it's got even more to recoup.

Could do big numbers in the foreign market, but I wonder if the delayed international release in much of the world will hurt it. Anyone who wants to see it in those countries and also has an Internet connection will have a solid month or two to scratch that itch. At least one study suggest this is a proven problem for action/sci-fi movies in particular.

Originally Posted by pdizzle

What does OW mean?

Opening weekend.

[beeshaw]

Originally Posted by Bry

Slightly less than the projections from boxoffice.com earlier in the month. If their overall domestic projections turn out accurate (approx $100m vs. a $125m production budget) it won't break even domestically. Though... is the $125m budget solely the production budget? If so, the added marketing and distribution budgets mean it's got even more to recoup.

Could do big numbers in the foreign market, but I wonder if the delayed international release in much of the world will hurt it. Anyone who wants to see it in those countries and also has an Internet connection will have a solid month or two to scratch that itch.

It does seem a bit low. $125 seems about right for the production budget. Very rarely does the marketing budget get made public.

Hopefully that's a very modest tracking number. I was thinking closer to $50million opening weekend. It should do well overseas and with the merchandising factored in I think it will be deemed modestly successful.

[Vicky82]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice · 8s
Paramount will distribute TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES in an estimated 3,700+ locations next week. #TMNT

I expect it will go up next week as last week it said GOTG will open up to 3,800 and now they tweeted this

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice · 1m
Disney will launch Marvel's GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY in 4,080 locations

By the way

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice · 2m
INTO THE STORM will open in an estimated 3,250 theaters on August 8.

[TigerClaw]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice · 8s
Paramount will distribute TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES in an estimated 3,700+ locations next week. #TMNT

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice · 2m
INTO THE STORM will open in an estimated 3,250 theaters on August 8.

That's good, a lot more then Into the Storm, That's the only film its going up against.

[Vicky82]

By the way is that the total of the whole of USA or just states.

[ranger_scout]

Originally Posted by Warhorse

So, word on the street, it's tracking at 37 million OW at the moment.

Originally Posted by Bry

Slightly less than the projections from boxoffice.com earlier in the month. If their overall domestic projections turn out accurate (approx $100m vs. a $125m production budget) it won't break even domestically. Though... is the $125m budget solely the production budget? If so, the added marketing and distribution budgets mean it's got even more to recoup.

Could do big numbers in the foreign market, but I wonder if the delayed international release in much of the world will hurt it. Anyone who wants to see it in those countries and also has an Internet connection will have a solid month or two to scratch that itch.[/URL].

There is still one week left of promotion left before release. We'll see if the movie will open with those numbers. As I previously mentioned in another thread, the box-office predictions and tracking for the weekend lasting from June 13-15 were way off.

Predictions based on tracking:

DreamWorks Animation family sequel looking at $55 million-$70 million; '22 Jump Street’ at $45 million-$50 million

DreamWorks Animation's 3D family film “How to Train Your Dragon 2” will open between $55 million and $70 million when it hits theaters on June 13, according to pre-release tracking that came on line Thursday.

That's a broad range, but the weekend looks like it will be a big one at the box-office in any case. Sony's “22 Jump Street” is also debuting, and the initial tracking puts the R-rated Channing Tatum-Jonah Hill action comedy at between $45 million and $50 million. The openings are three weeks away and the marketing campaigns are still kicking in, so both films are hoping to build momentum.

http://www.thewrap.com/how-to-train-...x-office-fire/

Actual results:

As expected, highly-anticipated sequels 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2 took the top two spots at the box office this weekend. It came as quite the surprise, though, that the R-rated comedy easily took first place ahead of the DreamWorks Animation movie.

Playing at 3,306 locations, 22 Jump Street opened to a fantastic $57.1 million this weekend. That's the second-biggest opening ever for an R-rated comedy behind The Hangover Part II, and ahead of hits like Neighbors and Ted. It's also up a whopping 57 percent from 21 Jump Street's $36 million debut in March 2012.

22 Jump Street's strong start is likely due to a combination of goodwill from the first movie and a strong marketing campaign this time around. 21 Jump Street came out just over two years ago—the ideal wait time between a movie and its sequel—and had a strong run thanks in part to good word-of-mouth. That movie promised that stars Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum would be heading to college next, and marketing for the latest entry suggested it was going to deliver on that promise. It also helped that the movie received a strong promotional push from Hill and Tatum, who have each seen their stars rise in recent years.

In second place, DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon 2 opened to $49.5 million. That's an improvement over the first movie's $43.7 million, though it's far from the type of gain expected given the fact that the first Dragon is only of the most beloved animated movies of the past decade. It's also the first June animated release to fall short of $60 million since Ratatouille opened to $47 million back in 2007.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3858&p=.htm

boxoffice.com also predicted that Maleficent would open with $61 million, but there were off by $8.4 million.

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_st...ast-maleficent

New York Post predicted that it would not be a big hit and cause a write-down, but they were wrong.

http://nypost.com/2014/04/01/scary-p...ys-maleficent/

I also saw lots of promotion for that movie a week before it was released. That helped.

[Leo656]

It's been a weird summer for everything, not just movies. I was just reading a whole article on how nobody's really going on vacation or even barbecuing or going to the beach this summer because everyone's friggin' broke. Movies are way, way down on most people's priority list right now. Everything's really unpredictable. I think everything in August is going to under-perform. I doubt too many people are going to see ANY film more than once in theaters, maybe twice at most, but nothing's been seeing a lot of repeat business so far this year. That's telling as we enter Back-To-School season.

[Bry]

An update re: Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles next weekend, via Deadline.com:

All eyes are on next weekend. Guardians of the Galaxy will hold onto all of its IMAX screens next weekend as Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Into the Storm (WB), The Hundred Foot Journey (DIS) and Step Up All In (LGF) go wide. The only challenge to Guardians are the Turtles which have come out of their shells and is tracking to a $30M to $40M this weekend for distributor Paramount. More tracking numbers will come in later in the week, but if Guardians falls 50% this coming weekend, it will gross $41.5M, but I think that Guardians — whose exit polls are very strong — will hold onto the No. 1 position in its second frame. It played strongly last night, the final night of the weekend with an estimated $25.6M haul. Kids are still out of school so that is good news for both Rocket Raccoon and the Ninja Turtles. All pics open on Thursday night so it’s going to be another crazy weekend at the box office. Step Up All In already bowed overseas to gross $6.6M this past weekend to bring its international cume to $26M.

[ranger_scout]

Originally Posted by Bry

An update re: Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles next weekend, via Deadline.com:

Sometimes, a movie does not need to open at #1 if it still has a great first weekend gross. Examples would be The Day After Tomorrow, World War Z, Sherlock Holmes, Frozen, and Prometheus.

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/opennot1.htm

[voltron80]

Originally Posted by Bry

An update re: Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles next weekend, via Deadline.com:

Between kids and older fans who don't have blind hate for this movie it could pull off the upset, but I can see it coming in second. I just want it to come in first because it would ruin yours and your buddies' weekend.

[Redeemer]

Originally Posted by voltron80

Between kids and older fans who don't have blind hate for this movie it could pull off the upset, but I can see it coming in second. I just want it to come in first because it would ruin yours and your buddies' weekend.

I will see it 5 times to counter all the haters

[Bry]

Originally Posted by voltron80

Between kids and older fans who don't have blind hate for this movie it could pull off the upset, but I can see it coming in second. I just want it to come in first because it would ruin yours and your buddies' weekend.

Wow, trolling much?

It's not like I'm not financially invested in this; I just find it interesting. I'm spoiled for good movies/shows/comics right now, so no matter how this iteration of the franchise turns out it's not like I'm losing sleep.

That said, I do want the better movies to make the most money, because that raises the bar for everything else. That's my bias.