Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

[voltron80]

Originally Posted by Redeemer

I will see it 5 times to counter all the haters

As much I liked TMNT(1990) as a kid I only went to seen it once. For polls(not bringing in politics) remember polls had the last presidential election close and it wasn't.

[voltron80]

Originally Posted by Bry

Wow, trolling much?

It's not like I'm not financially invested in this; I just find it interesting. I'm spoiled for good movies/shows/comics right now, so no matter how this iteration of the franchise turns out it's not like I'm losing sleep.

It seems you do have some interest in the movie doing well or not because you seem way too happy with the bad reviews. As for the troll comment at least you're not whining about me not "respecting" your opinion anymore so that's progress. At the end of the day if this movie makes money Paramount will go ahead with a sequel.

[Vicky82]

I don't think GOTG will stay at no 1 for a 2nd week, not many superhero movies do.

Anyway lets just wait and see how TMNT does on Thursday night.

[Galactus]

Originally Posted by Bry

Slightly less than the projections from boxoffice.com earlier in the month. If their overall domestic projections turn out accurate (approx $100m vs. a $125m production budget) it won't break even domestically. Though... is the $125m budget solely the production budget? If so, the added marketing and distribution budgets mean it's got even more to recoup.

Could do big numbers in the foreign market, but I wonder if the delayed international release in much of the world will hurt it. Anyone who wants to see it in those countries and also has an Internet connection will have a solid month or two to scratch that itch. At least one study suggest this is a proven problem for action/sci-fi movies in particular.

Opening weekend.

With promotion ramping up considerably since then I'd say that the numbers will be upwards from those predictions but not significant enough. I think they've left it too late to sway that many opinions.

Internationally I would argue it isn't just about illegally streaming movies but the fact that to a lot of people the movie will be well and truly spoiled by then, there will be memes based on the the good and bad parts, every opinion will have been voiced online that I can see a lot of people losing any sense of curiosity by the time of release,

Originally Posted by voltron80

Between kids and older fans who don't have blind hate for this movie it could pull off the upset, but I can see it coming in second. I just want it to come in first because it would ruin yours and your buddies' weekend.

It wouldn't ruin anything for me. I've long acted on the assumption that despite making fans very unhappy that it would be highly successful anyway ala the Transformers movies. Now that doesn't seem quite so certain (and if there's silver lining to that happening is that perhaps Hollywood realizes that the idea that people will hate and yet go see it anyway may not apply anymore) but I still think it will likely debut #1 especially the promotion ramping up recently.

If it doesn't then that's quite embarrassing for the franchise since it'd be the first TMNT movie not to debut at the top and I'd imagine if Paramount were on the fence about further movies that would be a big factor.

For me the ideal scenario would be that it makes enough to justify more movies but not so much that they think their formula works. That's just me.

[Warhorse]

Originally Posted by Galactus

If it doesn't then that's quite embarrassing for the franchise since it'd be the first TMNT movie not to debut at the top and I'd imagine if Paramount were on the fence about further movies that would be a big factor.

For me the ideal scenario would be that it makes enough to justify more movies but not so much that they think their formula works. That's just me.

I wonder though, if this movie seriously underperforms at the BO, what do you think the future will be for the franchise? What with the successful toy sales and the show, it's obvious there is a big market for it, but do you think they'll just scrap the idea that TMNT is just not worth bringing to the big screen again, or would they look to see what is it that is working for other CBM like X-Men, Batman, Ironman and Captain America, and maybe we might get a Turtle film with that caliber of entertainment?

[voltron80]

Originally Posted by Galactus

With promotion ramping up considerably since then I'd say that the numbers will be upwards from those predictions but not significant enough. I think they've left it too late to sway that many opinions.

Internationally I would argue it isn't just about illegally streaming movies but the fact that to a lot of people the movie will be well and truly spoiled by then, there will be memes based on the the good and bad parts, every opinion will have been voiced online that I can see a lot of people losing any sense of curiosity by the time of release,



It wouldn't ruin anything for me. I've long acted on the assumption that despite making fans very unhappy that it would be highly successful anyway ala the Transformers movies. Now that doesn't seem quite so certain (and if there's silver lining to that happening is that perhaps Hollywood realizes that the idea that people will hate and yet go see it anyway may not apply anymore) but I still think it will likely debut #1 especially the promotion ramping up recently.

If it doesn't then that's quite embarrassing for the franchise since it'd be the first TMNT movie not to debut at the top and I'd imagine if Paramount were on the fence about further movies that would be a big factor.

For me the ideal scenario would be that it makes enough to justify more movies but not so much that they think their formula works. That's just me.

The internet has given the vocal minority way too much influence I have run into more people who plan to see this movie than those who are against it and the anti person I did ran into was just repeating the same old talking point most internet nerds that hate this movie give. I still believe kids and older fans who don't have a blind hate for this movie will make it competitive this Friday.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by voltron80

IAs for the troll comment at least you're not whining about me not "respecting" your opinion anymore so that's progress.

So we're not supposed to respect each others' opinions?

I think we can disagree and be civil.

Originally Posted by Galactus

With promotion ramping up considerably since then I'd say that the numbers will be upwards from those predictions but not significant enough. I think they've left it too late to sway that many opinions.

Has anyone seen what the GotG marketing has been like post-release? I honestly don't watch that much TV, but I wonder what they're doing to maintain their momentum going forward.

[NinjaPug]

I want this movie to earn enough that we get a sequel only because if it doesn't it'll be a loooong time before we see another one. However, I want Paramount to dump Platinum Dunes from the TMNT property. They suck.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by NinjaPug

I want this movie to earn enough that we get a sequel only because if it doesn't it'll be a loooong time before we see another one. However, I want Paramount to dump Platinum Dunes from the TMNT property. They suck.

We could always get a quick-turnaround reboot if that's the case. I'd be fine with a "soft reboot" that doesn't cover the origin necessarily, but restores the classic designs and takes a different style/tone. Either way, if this movie under-performs I can see them wanting to take it in a different direction next time. Time will tell, though.

[MajorViolence]

Originally Posted by Bry

We could always get a quick-turnaround reboot if that's the case. I'd be fine with a "soft reboot" that doesn't cover the origin necessarily, but restores the classic designs and takes a different style/tone. Either way, if this movie under-performs I can see them wanting to take it in a different direction next time. Time will tell, though.

Hell, I'm sick of origin movies anyway. 2007's TMNT did it best. We know the origin, just give us a story.

...just, hopefully a better one than TMNT came up with.

[LincolnHawk]

less than 100mil

[Warhorse]

Originally Posted by MajorViolence

Hell, I'm sick of origin movies anyway. 2007's TMNT did it best. We know the origin, just give us a story.

...just, hopefully a better one than TMNT came up with.

What about something based on 2k3 Same as it Never Was. That will shock the little kiddies and soccer moms.

[Bry]

Another Deadline piece about the upcoming weekend is up.

Here are a few relevant bits:

This weekend, four new movies will debut — three of them are in the 3D format, but only one has a lock on the premium large-format screens (PLF) — Warner Bros.’ disaster pic Into The Storm. With Guardians Of The Galaxy from Disney having a second-weekend lock on all the coveted Imax screens, that leaves Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles out in the cold with the large formats.

Will it harm Paramount’s Ninja Turtles weekend gross? “It won’t stop them,” said one veteran distribution executive. “It still could make $40 million or a little under this weekend.” If Guardians Of The Galaxy drops 50% in its second weekend, it will make around $41.4 million, so could not having those big screens make the difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 box office spot? “Yes, it could.” And therein lies the rub.

[Warhorse]

Damn, I would be at a loss for words if Into The Storm beats out TMNT this upcoming weekend.

But, I hear absolutely no buzz for that movie. Yeah, I'm seeing more trailers for that then TMNT, but would people really want to go see that movie, when there has been all of these disasters in real life lately?

Eh, I think it's going to be a tight race this weekend between GOTG and TMNT. Everything else is just a fart in the wind.

[SwiftNinjaFox]

Y'know, I honestly think When the Game Stands Tall could do surprisingly well this month. It's been a while since we had an inspiring sports movie and those seem to do well when they come around.

Is it also bad that I actually am really finding Let's Be Cops' trailers to be funny.

Of course, all of those are after TMNT.

[Leo656]

"Let's Be Cops" caught my eye and I have no idea why. I kinda want to see that against my better judgment. I laughed way too much at that "That's what you GIT!" scene. Probably not theater-worthy, but I think it'll have a spot on my DVD shelf one day.

[Commenter 42]

Guardians has enough positive buzz to carry it through next weekend at #1.
The Imax screens will box out TMNT to 35 mil cum for the first frame.

If anything TMNT's legs are in foreign markets, where it might make up some ground.

[ranger_scout]

Originally Posted by Warhorse

Damn, I would be at a loss for words if Into The Storm beats out TMNT this upcoming weekend.

But, I hear absolutely no buzz for that movie. Yeah, I'm seeing more trailers for that then TMNT, but would people really want to go see that movie, when there has been all of these disasters in real life lately?

Eh, I think it's going to be a tight race this weekend between GOTG and TMNT. Everything else is just a fart in the wind.

The rest of the article says this.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is coming into this weekend much stronger on tracking than Into The Storm, which is looking like a low-$20 millions opening. Should be another wild weekend ride with Into The Storm in the third spot and Guardians and Ninja Turtles battling for No. 1; my bet is on Guardians to take the crown again but Turtles could go higher, which would be great for the industry.

http://www.deadline.com/2014/08/box-...t-for-screens/

[Leo656]

LET'S GO "SIN CITY" FOR THE UPSET!

Just kidding, absolutely zero chance. Like, none.

[ranger_scout]

Besides the five films I listed that had solid debuts at #2 that I listed I also forgot to mention that there have been other films that did not reach #1 that have either gotten or will have sequels because of their sold performances. Examples are Pacific Rim, The Smurfs, Kung Fu Panda 2, Planes, Magic Mike, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, The Nut Job, Journey to the Center of the Earth, and the Alvin & the Chipmunks movies.