Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

[MajorViolence]

Originally Posted by NinjaPug

Their predictions for the weekend:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy (Disney/Marvel) - $44.5 million -53%

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount) - $35.2 million N/A

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weeke....php?id=121381

Ouch.

[RaphaelinSTL]

Originally Posted by NinjaPug

1. Guardians of the Galaxy (Disney/Marvel) - $44.5 million -53%

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount) - $35.2 million N/A

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weeke....php?id=121381

This is just a prediction right? I don't know guys, I have a strong feeling TMNT might take the weekend just based on the popularity of the franchise and the new kids show.

We'll have to see though.

[beeshaw]

I'd like to think it will do $45-50 mill but with GotG being such a runaway hit, I can see it taking up theatre & showtime space.

I know at my local theatre's GotG has taken the larger screens already for the Thursday showing. Normally the big releases get the AVX screens (reserved & better seating, better sound....) but GotG are still in those for this weekend apparently. Which sucks because I much prefer the AVX screens (if only for the reserved seating - I hate lining up to ensure a good seat). Hell, they don't even have tickets available for Friday/Saturday/Sunday yet. Just Thursday night.

[MajorViolence]

I have to admit, I'm starting to think GotG may actually take #1 this weekend. I was pretty certain GotG would take a decent chunk out of TMNT's box office, but I still didn't doubt TMNT would come out on top. Now, I'm not so sure.

[ranger_scout]

Some good news and some bad news, but we'll see what happens over the weekend.

Tuesday Morning Update: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles led this week's newcomers handily on Monday, accounting for 15,434 tweets and 859,737 likes on the day. The film has the broadest appeal and indeed biggest marketing push of any of the four new wide releases on the weekend and as such it would be a shock if it didn't come out on top. The Ninja Turtle franchise has a storied past which has made it one of the most popular over the last thirty years including four previous films which has accumulated over $500 million in adjusted North American earnings. That's the good news, the bad is that the market is filled with deadly competition from Guardians Of The Galaxy which hits the exact same target audience, and with a budget of $125 million this has a really high bar for success. By comparison, Transformers: Age Of Extinction had 17,087 tweets and just over 32 million likes (they didn't have a Facebook page dedicated to that particular film, only for the franchise) while Godzilla had 40,223 tweets and 1,117,896 likes. The social media footprint here is definitely sizeable but with poor reviews flooding in and tainting the sentiment and what is sure to be a very strong holdover in Guardians it has an uphill struggle to attain profitability during its run in theaters.

http://www.boxoffice.com/news/2014-0...-of-contenders

[beeshaw]

Even if it falls a little short in BO, I'm hoping the merchandising and DVD/BD/Digital sales allows them to go ahead with a sequel. Seems like they've invested a lot just in R&D for the SFX. They seem to have 'learned' their lesson with the obvious rewrite to Sachs/Shredder that I'm hoping the sequel can build and add to their origins and delve a little deeper, maybe go a little darker. And I'd love to see some the Dimension X/Kraang/Ultrom stuff show up. Wishful thinking?

[ranger_scout]

The Wrap had this to say yesterday and it's encouraging.

But thanks to the big debut by “Guardians” and strong lineup over the next few weeks, it looks like this could be a very successful August. Paramount's “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” is tracking well and opens on Friday, along with “Into the Storm,” “Step Up All In” and “The Hundred-Foot Journey.”

http://www.thewrap.com/how-guardians...er-box-office/

Also here's another prediction from ScreenRant:

This weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opens in over 3,700 theaters, Into the Storm debuts in over 3,250 theaters, The Hundred-Foot Journey is released in 2,000 locations, and Step Up All In sees a release of 2,000 theaters. On the limited front, we have What If playing on an unspecified number of screens.

#1 – Guardians of the Galaxy
Look for last week’s champ, Guardians of the Galaxy (read our review), to finish in the top spot again. Setting a new August record with $94.3 million, Marvel’s space opera transformed from obscure comic book property to viable blockbuster franchise over the span of three days. Receiving some of the best critic reviews in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and winning over moviegoers with its combination of humor and heart, Guardians has generated more than enough positive buzz necessary to sustain a long run.

Granted, with a huge opening (not to mention, the $11 million grossed via Thursday night showings), it’s very much in the realm of possibility that this film becomes the latest to suffer from the infamous second weekend decline and see a sizable drop-off. That said, a front-loaded weekend won’t have much negative impact on Star Lord and friends. None of this week’s new releases are expected to see big business, and as audiences continue to rave about the fun adventure, James Gunn’s foray into the MCU should remain the most popular option.

#2 – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Our choice for second is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. The trailers have made sure to emphasize the involvement of producer Michael Bay, and usually his name is box office gold (see: the Transformers movies). However, he doesn’t appear to be having the same effect with this 1980s pop culture mainstay. From the beginning, the adaptation has had to overcome a storm of negativity and it doesn’t rank high on many moviegoers’ radars. Early tracking indicates a $39 million debut; and while that’s solid, it may not be enough to top Guardians.

It’s also worth mentioning that TMNT is the bizarro Guardians in terms of early word-of-mouth. The first wave of reviews are in, and in stark contrast to the rave write-ups Marvel’s latest received, the heroes in a half shell have seen critics take an indifferent stance. This development could sway audiences away from Donatello and Leonardo and back to Rocket and Groot, hurting the potential intake for TMNT.

http://screenrant.com/guardians-of-g...ice-prediction

Once again, let's wait and see what happens.

[Radical Raph]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

The Wrap had this to say yesterday and it's encouraging.



http://www.thewrap.com/how-guardians...er-box-office/

Also here's another prediction from ScreenRant:



http://screenrant.com/guardians-of-g...ice-prediction

Once again, let's wait and see what happens.

With that competition it'll definitely be a close number 2.

[Leo656]

No matter how well it does in theaters, though, I promise you, this movie is gonna have a long tail on DVD. Even among fans who really, really don't want to see it in theaters, I promise you, at least 70% of those same people are still going to buy the DVD, plus everyone who actually likes the movie.

[Radical Raph]

Originally Posted by Leo656

No matter how well it does in theaters, though, I promise you, this movie is gonna have a long tail on DVD. Even among fans who really, really don't want to see it in theaters, I promise you, at least 70% of those same people are still going to buy the DVD, plus everyone who actually likes the movie.

You might be right, but that still doesn't necessarily guarantee a sequel. Look at Dredd.

[ranger_scout]

Originally Posted by Leo656

No matter how well it does in theaters, though, I promise you, this movie is gonna have a long tail on DVD.

That also helped G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra get a sequel. I'm sure we'll have great sales since Paramount plans on releasing it on home media during the holiday season.

[voltron80]

Originally Posted by Netkeeper

You really need to learn what a comma is.

[voltron80]

Originally Posted by Commenter 42

Champ? Ok Chump. I can use stupid words too. Let's all do it! Yay!
Whose after you Spanky? Kid you got issues. Listen Bud, I could care less how you spend your money, so if you're that intent on blowing it, go on! Child, the reviewer is warning you of danger! Danger! You will be disappoint!
You got that Son? Leave the herd, ya heard?

Meh... Google says that the correct term is flock, not herd...

Lol... Sorry, I'm all outt'a condescension. Honestly, I thought maybe you were reasonable, but player, you wanted to step...lol...I can't keep this up.

Be mad bro, enjoy.

My only response to that big bucket of nonsense:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JLbAePwoHQ

[Commenter 42]

Originally Posted by voltron80

My only response to that big bucket of nonsense:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JLbAePwoHQ

*Yawn...

Back on topic... I think it's safe to say TMNT will arrive around 35 mil for the weekend, with a 70% drop on the following frame.

I think all told it'll pull down 110 domestic, with 250 foreign.

That's my guess anyways.
I was a little low on my RT score of 23, so I might be under on this.

[pdizzle]

Im predicting 115 mill opening weekend, gonna be the most under estimated movie of the year

[Leo656]

I personally think the movie would need a rocket up its ass to make that much its first weekend, but I like your enthusiasm.

[pdizzle]

Lmao....just wishful thinking i guess

[Bry]

GotG did big numbers for Monday - $11,722,356. Compare that to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which actually made almost a million more than GotG's opening weekend, but took in $6,219,552 on its first Monday.

It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the weekdays shake out. It's possible there'll be a huge second-week drop-off, but this could also be a sign that GotG has some serious staying power. If that is the case, TMNT could be in for some trouble.

[MajorViolence]

The way things are going I'll be somewhat surprised if TMNT actually can manage to wrestle to the top this weekend. I'm still not ruling it out as a possibility, but it's looking like GotG probably has this in the bag.

[Bry]

This doesn't necessarily mean anything in the big picture, but my local theatre has almost twice as many showtimes for GotG than it does for TMNT this weekend. If that's widespread it could make a difference - theatres could be holding more showtimes for GotG based on its performance, betting on it doing better business than anything else this weekend.