Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

[ranger_scout]

Paramount was also smart to move the film from June 6 to August 8 because Edge of Tomorrow, which opens the same weekend that this movie was going to debut is not tracking very well. It was also smart to avoid competition from this films listed below.

Moviegoers right now are focused more on upcoming titles “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” “Transformers: Age of Extinction” and “Maleficent,” according to Phil Contrino, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/wa...es-1201183917/

Guardians of the Galaxy which opens a week earlier might debut strong, but it will most likely have a steep drop in its second weekend.

Originally Posted by Xav

That seems about right. Unfortunately that would be enough for a sequel.

G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra made $150 million domestically against a budget of $175 million, but its foreign grosses, which brought its worldwide total to $302 million, and home video sales helped it turn a profit and green-light a sequel. I'm sure that will happen with this film as well and how well the merchandise sells will also depend on a sequel too.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Guardians of the Galaxy which opens a week earlier might debut strong, but it will most likely have a steep drop in its second weekend.

What's this prediction based on?

Here's a list of the biggest second-week box office drops. There are some exceptions, but I'd say a majority of these are movies that weren't very good, or flash-in-the-pan stuff like concert movies, or generally stuff that would have had poor word-of-mouth at the time. Anything's possible, but I'm more optimistic that GotG will have rather good word-of-mouth, if anything.

[chrisdude]

I really don't know what most of those movies are. But, a lot of times, nerd stuff has a big drop. Movies with a niche fanbase. They all go see it when it comes out, and nobody else cares. I remember people being super hyped about Watchmen, and that movie made money for exactly three days, and stopped.

[ranger_scout]

Originally Posted by Bry

What's this prediction based on?

Here's a list of the biggest second-week box office drops. There are some exceptions, but I'd say a majority of these are movies that weren't very good, or flash-in-the-pan stuff like concert movies, or generally stuff that would have had poor word-of-mouth at the time. Anything's possible, but I'm more optimistic that GotG will have rather good word-of-mouth, if anything.

Superhero type films usually have large drops in their second weekend if its either due to word of mouth or competition from other releases. Look what happened to Man of Steel, Hulk, and Green Lantern. Not only did word-of-mouth hurt Man of Steel, but tough competition from Monsters University and World War Z hurt it. A non-superhero type film this year, Godzilla, opened to $93.2 million, but suffered a 66.8% because X-Men: Days of Future Past opening the following week. And finally, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 broke many box office records in its opening weekend, but it declined 72% the following weekend since Captain America: The Winter Soldier had debuted that same weekend.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Leolead

Seriously Why do you guys always defend GOTG?

And what makes you think GOTG will have good WOM?, What makes you think it's even going to be good?

It has very strong marketing and trailers, it's based on some highly-regarded source material, and the director and producers have a great track record.

Here's a question back: why is it you've been jumping to argue against GotG so often?

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Superhero type films usually have large drops in their second weekend if its either due to word of mouth or competition from other releases. Look what happened to Man of Steel, Hulk, and Green Lantern.

In fairness, those three movies had mixed word-of-mouth at best. Same goes for Amazing Spider-Man 2.

Compare that to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which was very highly-regarded and dominated the box office for three weekends straight. I'm not arguing that GotG is going to match its performance (it won't), but if it's genuinely good and has great word-of-mouth, it has a much better chance of staying afloat longer.

[The Boston Ninja Turtle]

Originally Posted by Leolead

And what makes you think GOTG will have good WOM?, What makes you think it's even going to be good?

what makes you think TMNT will other than you want it too?

[Leolead]

Originally Posted by Bry

It has very strong marketing and trailers, it's based on some highly-regarded source material, and the director and producers have a great track record.

Here's a question back: why are you always jumping to argue against GotG?

Because people are always willing to defend GOTG, just because the trailers were good, i'm sure if TMNT had better marketing people would flock to see TMNT regardless of how they look, kids will always like TMNT better than some tree *I mean groot, and some raccoon, a green lady, a boring outlaw, a green painted wrestler, just don't understand the fascination with them

[SwiftNinjaFox]

Originally Posted by Leolead

Seriously Why do you guys always defend GOTG?

And what makes you think GOTG will have good WOM?, What makes you think it's even going to be good?

Mainly because what they've shown had been pretty good at looking good while still not revealing much. They've been trickling out footage and showing some gags and jokes, giving an overall feel for the film.

Why will it have good word of mouth, why do people think it will be good?

In Whedon we trust.

Originally Posted by Leolead

Because people are always willing to defend GOTG, just because the trailers were good, i'm sure if TMNT had better marketing people would flock to see TMNT regardless of how they look, kids will always like TMNT better than some tree *I mean groot, and some raccoon, a green lady, a boring outlaw, a green painted wrestler, just don't understand the fascination with them

Oh shiiiiiiiiiiii

Did you just call Rocket a raccoon? *stays away from Leo and looks around for incoming gunfire*


For the record, because of the movies, my friend's 7 year old daughter is totally into everything Marvel. She knows who the Guardians are from the Avengers cartoon. She can tell you all about the Infinity Gauntlet. She knows nothing about TMNT and has no interest in it at all, nor do his other three kids.

Yes, I have already shamed him for poor geek parenting.

[The Boston Ninja Turtle]

Originally Posted by Leolead

Because people are always willing to defend GOTG,

so you are against GOTG because people defend it?

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Leolead

Because people are always willing to defend GOTG, just because the trailers were good

I don't get your point here. Why is "the trailers were good" a reason to argue against it?

People are willing to defend GotG because it's won them over and they're excited to see it. The marketing has done its job.

Originally Posted by Leolead

i'm sure if TMNT had better marketing people would flock to see TMNT regardless of how they look

The suggestion here is that TMNT doesn't have better marketing. How is this a reason to argue against GotG, then? If anything, that sounds like a reason to argue against TMNT's marketing team.

Originally Posted by Leolead

kids will always like TMNT better than some tree *I mean groot, and some raccoon, a green lady, a boring outlaw, a green painted wrestler, just don't understand the fascination with them

And people might have said the same about Iron Man before 2008, but one damn good movie shot him from the Marvel Comics B-list into a beloved, massively popular A-list character.

The Guardians aren't likely to reach the same heights, but if the movie is good and catches on, you might be surprised.

[chrisdude]

Word of mouth is created by the discrepancy between expectations and the actual movie. You can't predict how wrong your expectations are.

[ranger_scout]

Here's some news that should comfort us fans.

Here's a riddle: When is a turtle bigger than a giant fire-breathing lizard or a huge alien robot? Answer: When it's a teenage mutant ninja turtle.
The reboot of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles flexed a little of that turtle power on trailer watchers last week. The debut coming attraction for the August action-comedy recorded 31.4 million YouTube views, according to technology company Zefr, which tracks the numbers.

The TMNT preview had a better first week than any other summer movie coming out in 2014. Godzilla and Transformers: Age of Extinction both opened to 26.3 million views; Amazing Spider-Man 2 did 19.7 million.

Cowabunga, Dude!

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hea...t-ninja-693437

The trailer for Guardians of the Galaxy debuted in February and has been seen by less-than-half of the views of the trailer for this movie in almost four months.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTZ2Tp9yXyM

[Leolead]

Originally Posted by Bry

I don't get your point here. Why is "the trailers were good" a reason to argue against it?

People are willing to defend GotG because it's won them over and they're excited to see it. The marketing has done its job.



The suggestion here is that TMNT doesn't have better marketing. How is this a reason to argue against GotG, then? If anything, that sounds like a reason to argue against TMNT's marketing team.



And people might have said the same about Iron Man before 2008, but one damn good movie shot him from the Marvel Comics B-list into a beloved, massively popular A-list character.

The Guardians aren't likely to reach the same heights, but if the movie is good and catches on, you might be surprised.

Ironman was not as unknown as the guardians!!, i know i was a ironman fan before the movie even came out, most comic fans could tell you who ironman was, not guardians!, especially since this was before the 2008 team came out

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Leolead

Ironman was not as unknown as the guardians!!, i know i was a ironman fan before the movie even came out, most comic fans could tell you who ironman was, not guardians!, especially since this was before the 2008 team came out

Yes, and I said that GotG was unlikely to reach the same heights as Iron Man. It wasn't a direct comparison - just an example. Iron Man was a "known" character beforehand, but he wasn't massively popular until that movie came out. I'm just saying that one good, well-marketed movie can launch a franchise into the public consciousness, and there's really no guarantee that "kids will always like TMNT better" than any other franchise just because they may be more popular right now. These things aren't static.

Would anyone have expected an Iron Man movie to make more money than a Spider-Man movie before 2008? I kind of doubt it, but that's what's happening.

[Leolead]

Originally Posted by Bry

Yes, and I said that GotG was unlikely to reach the same heights as Iron Man. It wasn't a direct comparison - just an example. Iron Man was a "known" character beforehand, but he wasn't massively popular until that movie came out. I'm just saying that one good, well-marketed movie can launch a franchise into the public consciousness, and there's really no guarantee that "kids will always like TMNT better" than any other franchise just because they may be more popular right now. These things aren't static.

Would anyone have expected an Iron Man movie to make more money than a Spider-Man movie before 2008? I kind of doubt it, but that's what's happening.

True, Well to be honest, i want both to succeed, i want michael korvac for GOTG 2, i want Baxter stockman and krang for TMNT 2

[SwiftNinjaFox]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Here's some news that should comfort us fans.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hea...t-ninja-693437

The trailer for Guardians of the Galaxy debuted in February and has been seen by less-than-half of the views of the trailer for this movie in almost four months.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTZ2Tp9yXyM

A key difference, however, is that the Guardians trailer has been shown on Jimmy Kimmel Live and with multiple movies in theaters. I've seen it with pretty much every film I've seen this year since Winter Soldier.

I've seen TMNT a whopping 0.

My friend saw it at AMC's showing of X-Men. Others here have seen it in theaters too, but it's not showing everywhere with the summer blockbusters.

You can be sure every theater will have it with Transformers, though.

When the online post is almost the only place to see it, you'll get more hits there.

Originally Posted by Leolead

True, Well to be honest, i want both to succeed, i want michael korvac for GOTG 2, i want Baxter stockman and krang for TMNT 2

Don't forget Bebop and Rocksteady!

[ranger_scout]

Originally Posted by SwiftNinjaFox

A key difference, however, is that the Guardians trailer has been shown on Jimmy Kimmel Live and with multiple movies in theaters. I've seen it with pretty much every film I've seen this year since Winter Soldier.

I've seen TMNT a whopping 0.

My friend saw it at AMC's showing of X-Men. Others here have seen it in theaters too, but it's not showing everywhere with the summer blockbusters.

It really depends on the theater or the movie theater company. I've seen it during showings of both Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Million Dollar Arm. I saw these movies in two different theaters.

[RedRocBoy]

Originally Posted by SwiftNinjaFox

A key difference, however, is that the Guardians trailer has been shown on Jimmy Kimmel Live and with multiple movies in theaters. I've seen it with pretty much every film I've seen this year since Winter Soldier.

I've seen TMNT a whopping 0.

My friend saw it at AMC's showing of X-Men. Others here have seen it in theaters too, but it's not showing everywhere with the summer blockbusters.

You can be sure every theater will have it with Transformers, though.

When the online post is almost the only place to see it, you'll get more hits there.

Saw it in 3D when I went to see X Men. I was so happy to see it. GodI can't wait for August.

Originally Posted by Leolead

True, Well to be honest, i want both to succeed, i want michael korvac for GOTG 2, i want Baxter stockman and krang for TMNT 2

Stockman is in this movie. He's the guy from Buffy.

[SwiftNinjaFox]

Originally Posted by RedRocBoy

Stockman is in this movie. He's the guy from Buffy.

K. Todd Freeman... Hm, he looks the part to me.

[chrisdude]

Originally Posted by SwiftNinjaFox

A key difference, however, is that the Guardians trailer has been shown on Jimmy Kimmel Live and with multiple movies in theaters. I've seen it with pretty much every film I've seen this year since Winter Soldier.

I've seen TMNT a whopping 0.

My friend saw it at AMC's showing of X-Men. Others here have seen it in theaters too, but it's not showing everywhere with the summer blockbusters.

You can be sure every theater will have it with Transformers, though.

When the online post is almost the only place to see it, you'll get more hits there.

That irritates me to death. I watched Winter Soldier twice, Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, and X-Men, and I haven't seen the TMNT trailer once.