TMNT 2 Box Office Predictions and Results

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by Bry

Wait... you're telling me Megan Fox is expensive!?

Well I assumed she is.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by Bry

Wait... you're telling me Megan Fox is expensive!?

Originally Posted by Vicky82

Well I assumed she is.

She can't be. She hasn't been tasked with carrying a movie since Jennifer's Body, and that was a flop that pretty much killed Diablo Cody's serious writing career. What did Megan Fox follow that up with as the female lead? Jonah Hex, an embarrassingly enormous flop. And that was 6 years ago. She's "bargain basement hot chick" in Hollywood right now.

Though I personally don't mind her acting at all. Kind of like a young Jennifer Connelly or an American Elizabeth Hurley, but without being given typically as meaty of material as them.

[Leolead]

If this thing bombs, what happens next? Hopefully a TMNT movie reboot inspired by the version in my avatar.

[Powder]

They should have just made Pixar quality movies of the Nick series like they do with their other properties.

[nellyp]

We went to the cheap theatre in town and the theatre probably only had 25 ppl in it for the 6:40 pm showing which was pretty low but the theatre isn't as popular. Usually the late night show draws bigger but we had our 2 kids with us so we had to be home at a decent hour.

We treated a friend and his son as well so it was 6 of us and after concessions it was about $120 trip to the movies but it was fun and it was an early birthday gift for our youngest son who turns 4 on Monday.

The kids all thought it was really awesome and our oldest was saying he wanted to stay all night and watch it again which we quickly shot down of course. They are already looking forward to buying it on bluray even though they have no money.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by Leolead

If this thing bombs, what happens next? Hopefully a TMNT movie reboot inspired by the version in my avatar.

Whatever happens, TMNT will sit in a vacuum as a movie franchise for about a decade until they decide what to do.

Which is fine. It's kind like the old expression, "If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all." Well, "If you can't make a non-sh*t TMNT movie, don't make one at all." IMHO.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

Whatever happens, TMNT will sit in a vacuum as a movie franchise for about a decade until they decide what to do.

Ehh, maybe. Franchises reboot faster than ever these days, so I wouldn't be surprised if they put a new creative team together and went in a different direction sooner than that.

But I dunno, I'd be fine with waiting, so long as actual talented writers and filmmakers get a hold of it in the end. Platinum Dunes is a lost cause.

Not assuming too much about the B.O. results too early. But if the projections are accurate I'm gonna pop the champagne.

[Andrew NDB]

Originally Posted by Bry

But I dunno, I'd be fine with waiting, so long as actual talented writers and filmmakers get a hold of it in the end.

That is the hope, but it is near impossible with the way Viacom is approaching TMNT films via Paramount.

Right now it is literally:

Step 1: We can haz more Turtle Product™, let's make a film.
Step 2: Hire on some hired guns (production company, director) and hacks to write it based on what our projections tell us will maximize profit and toy sales.
Step 3: Throw the movie out there and see what happens. Possibly freak out halfway through production when the internet finds out what you're doing is sh*t, then reshoot half of it.

The way the filmmaking process SHOULD work, if there is to be a good TMNT film:

Step 1: Director and/or writer with a vision says, "I get the TMNT, I want to make a TMNT movie." (Alternately, Viacom/Paramount says, "We really want to get another TMNT movie made, let's put out some feelers to see what big name directors or proven up-and-comers, #1: we'd trust with it, and #2: is passionate about and understands the characters).
Step 2: Said director and/or writer approaches Viacom/Paramount and says, "Hey, here's my pitch."
Step 3: Viacom/Paramount sign on and the director and/or writer is allowed to pursue their artistic vision, with minimal sticky notes about toys or whatnot.

Viacom/Paramount has made it clear they're not about the latter, at all.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

That is the hope, but it is near impossible with the way Viacom is approaching TMNT films via Paramount.

We're definitely on the same page. If this does flop, I can only hope that some heads roll and they realize they've been mismanaging the property... but I can't say I believe in miracles.

Here's another update from Deadline:

3RD UPDATE, Friday 11:35PM: Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is showing a slight improvement from its original forecast with an $11.6M Friday and an opening weekend of $31.5M at 4,071 theaters according to industry estimates.

Still, it’s not something to yell “Cowabunga!” about when this movie reportedly cost $135M. A sequel for TMNT was announced during its $65.5M successful opening weekend two years ago.

I heard that TMNT 2 was originally tracking at $49M on NRG three weeks ago and since then, its projection tanked.

Some attribute this swing to broken tracking models; they tend to have the pulse on TV ads, but fail to take into account the social media vibe (That said other tracking firms tell me they take all factors into account when forecasting).

Others blame TMNT 2‘s sequelitis on Paramount’s decision to change-up its target audience. When the studio rebooted the franchise two years ago, they executed a perfectly calibrated campaign that would appeal to Gen X and Y’s nostalgia sensibilities for the brand. This time the studio focused on kids. iSpotTV shows that Paramount shelled out an estimated $28.3M on television ads, with heavy spends on such Nickelodeon kid shows as SpongeBob SquarePants, The Thundermans and Henry Danger. Let’s not forget that the Melrose Lot also spent at least $5M on a Super Bowl spot for TMNT 2.

That last point touches on something I've been thinking about for a while, that Paramount had a golden opportunity in 2014 -- it was the 30th anniversary, there hadn't been a new live-action movie in 21 years, the Nick cartoon, toy line, and IDW comic were still relatively fresh and on the upswing -- and they completely blew it. That movie made money, but it likely turned off a lot of its audience and damaged the brand in the long run.

The market is absolutely swamped with comic/nostalgia properties right now, and Platinum Dunes has done absolutely nothing to make TMNT stand out as "special" among the lot, and has done even less to tell an actual good story. It's looking like coasting on nostalgia just doesn't cut it anymore. Whew.

The article also editorializes a bit, and touches on audience reactions:

But c’mon, it’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, not X-Men. How high can the stakes get in this sewer world with four fat, bulky turtles? I still have the Eastman and Laird comic books upstairs in my closet from my junior high days and the original property since the mid 1980s has weathered various blenders at New Line, TWC/Warner Bros (remember that 2007 animated film TMNT which made $54M at the domestic B.O.?), and Nickelodeon prior to Paramount. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was an indie comic book that completely sold out to commercialization, leaving a large portion of its tonal roots in the dust. The original comic book was a die-hard satire, even sending up Wolverine, however, if its drama was to be played on screen for gravitas, that would be ridiculous.

While this sequel is -52% off from the 2014 installment’s $65.6M opening, the 1991 New Line sequel only slid 21% from its initial 1990 chapter ($25M to $20M). What also contributed to the success of the early August opening of TMNT two years ago was the fact that there were more kids out of school. By Monday, only 52% K-12 schools will be on summer break.

The one thing that the turtles can beat their chests about tonight is the fact that they landed an A- CinemaScore, up from 2014’s B. Since Par went after the kid demo, they’re crossing their fingers that it plays like one with a high multiple this summer. We’ll see. TMNT 2 received sour results on PostTrak: 78% gave it a total positive score (meh), 47% said they’re definitely passing around the good word about it (not good), while only 20% said it exceeded their expectations (a good indicator if the sequel is worth moviegoers’ cash). Sixty-five percent males turned up for TMNT 2, but despite 53% being under 25, there was thick draw among the millennials with 38% between 18-24 and 33% 25-34. So, a portion of the old die-hard hipster fans showed up. 3D only repped 36% of all ticket sales per PostTrak. Thirty-four percent of the crowd said they bought tickets because it’s part of a franchise they like.

So yeah, not great news for this movie on the whole. If generally summer blockbusters make about 1/3 (or more) of their total domestic B.O. in the first weekend, and if that holds here and the tracking is accurate, this might not even crack $100m. And they spelled out how expensive the production and marketing were on this thing.

If it turns out they overestimated the appeal of Fred Wolf nostalgia and going solely for the kid market, hopefully that leads to something better down the line. Considering how our pop culture (and hell, culture as a whole) is overwhelmingly dominated by superheroes, this is the perfect time for TMNT to re-embrace its satirical roots. Deadpool was a massive hit for a reason. Paramount should take notes.

Reboot? Reboot.

[Vicky82]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tmnt2016.htm

$12M at the US box office so far

[JTH]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tmnt2016.htm

$12M at the US box office so far

Well, it looks like 30 million, that's way down from I thought it be.

Domestic box office wise, it's going to struggle to make it's 130 million budget back.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tmnt2016.htm

$12M at the US box office so far

Yep, $12.4m. Slightly better than projections, but not by much. And that number includes the $2m from Thursday night previews.

Officially less than half of the last movie's opening Friday. So yeah, that's really not good, especially for a sequel.

[Vicky82]

I think they chose the wrong date for TMNT 2, maybe should of kept the August date.

Even though it's doing **** an opening weekend it may do well during the week or next weekend. Warcraft is next weekend, does anyone think Warcraft will do well or bomb, if it bombs TMNT 2 could get the 2nd weekend at no 1.

[neatoman]

So exactly how big is the chance it will fail financially?

[ranger_scout]

Variety says it might actually be heading for a $36 million weekend.

The opening of “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows” is dominating a moderate weekend at the U.S. box office with an estimated $36 million, slightly better than half of the original’s launch.

Paramount’s action-comedy sequel took in $12.5 million at 4,071 sites on Friday, easily outdistancing the first day of Emilia Clarke’s romantic drama “Me Before You” at $7.8 million at 2,704 locations and the eighth day of “X-Men: Apocalypse” with $6.6 million.

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/bo...ou-1201788792/

Plus, there is another update from Deadline:

4TH WRITETHRU, Saturday 8AM: Refresh for updates, revised chart coming Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is gaining strength bit by bit in the wake of that A- CinemaScore, but not enough to scream “Cowabunga!” as this sequel cost a reported $135M before P&A. Current industry estimates show TMNT 2 coming in with a $12.4M Friday and an opening weekend of $33.7M at 4,071 theaters.

I heard yesterday that TMNT 2 was originally tracking at $49M on NRG three weeks ago and since then, its projection tanked. Some attribute this swing to broken tracking models; they tend to have the pulse on TV ads, but fail to take into account the social media vibe (That said other tracking firms tell me they take all factors into account when forecasting).

Others blame TMNT 2‘s sequelitis on Paramount’s decision to change-up its target audience. When the studio rebooted the franchise two years ago, they executed a perfectly calibrated campaign that would appeal to Gen X and Y’s nostalgia sensibilities for the brand. That pulled in 55% over 25. This time the studio focused on kids and 52% under 25 and 40% under 18 showed up, however, we’re looking at lower ticket sales here. iSpotTV shows that Paramount shelled out an estimated $28.3M on television ads, with heavy spends on such Nickelodeon kid shows as SpongeBob SquarePants, The Thundermans and Henry Danger. Let’s not forget that the Melrose Lot also spent at least $5M on a Super Bowl spot for TMNT 2.


But c’mon, it’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, not X-Men. How high can the stakes get in this sewer world with four fat, bulky turtles? I still have the Eastman and Laird comic books upstairs in my closet from my junior high days and the original property since the mid 1980s has weathered various blenders at New Line, TWC/Warner Bros (remember that 2007 animated film TMNT which made $54M at the domestic B.O.?), and Nickelodeon prior to Paramount. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was an indie comic book that completely sold out to commercialization, leaving a large portion of its tonal roots in the dust. The original comic book was a die-hard satire, even sending up Wolverine, however, if its drama was to be played on screen for gravitas, that would be ridiculous. A sequel for TMNT was announced during its $65.5M successful opening weekend two years ago.

While this sequel is -49% off from the 2014 installment’s $65.6M opening, the 1991 New Line sequel only slid 21% from its initial 1990 chapter ($25M to $20M). What also contributed to the success of the early August opening of TMNT two years ago was the fact that there were more kids out of school. By Monday, only 52% K-12 schools will be on summer break.

The one thing that the turtles can beat their chests about this weekend is that A- CinemaScore, up from 2014’s B. Since Par went after the kid demo, they’re crossing their fingers that it plays like one with a high multiple this summer. We’ll see. Strong CinemaScore grades with this sequel lie with males who turned at 54% (A-), females at 46% (A-), the under 18 crowd (A), and the under 25ers (A). TMNT 2 received sour results on PostTrak: 78% gave it a total positive score (meh), 47% said they’re definitely passing around the good word about it (not good), while only 20% said it exceeded their expectations (a good indicator if the sequel is worth moviegoers’ cash). Sixty-five percent males turned up for TMNT 2, but despite 53% being under 25, there was thick draw among the millennials with 38% between 18-24 and 33% 25-34. So, a portion of the old die-hard hipster fans showed up. 3D only repped 36% of all ticket sales per PostTrak. Thirty-four percent of the crowd said they bought tickets because it’s part of a franchise they like.

http://deadline.com/2016/06/teenage-...ce-1201766674/

At least it's doing a little bit better than original estimates.

[TigerClaw]

Here's the chart so far as of Friday.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

1. TMNT: Out of the Shadows $12,500,000
2. Me Before You $7,750,000
3. X-Men: Apocalypse $6,550,000
4. Alice Through The Looking Glass $3,155,000
5. The Angry Birds Movie $2,600,000

Me Before You, and Popstar are the other movies it's competing against, but it looks like Popstar isn't doing well, it's currently #7, and right below Civil War.

[Vicky82]

As it was a American holiday last weekend X-Men only did $80M and Alice bombed so I'm thinking the people who didn't see those movies last week will see them this week. If no 1 is interested in Warcraft next week then TMNT 2 may do well.

Originally Posted by neatoman

So exactly how big is the chance it will fail financially?

It depends how well it does every day in the US and depends how well it does overseas.

[Bry]

Originally Posted by Vicky82

I think they chose the wrong date for TMNT 2, maybe should of kept the August date.

Even though it's doing **** an opening weekend it may do well during the week or next weekend. Warcraft is next weekend, does anyone think Warcraft will do well or bomb, if it bombs TMNT 2 could get the 2nd weekend at no 1.

Hard to say, really... Warcraft is performing well internationally, but there's no guarantee that'll apply to the North American market.

The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 also come out next week, and they all have pretty wide openings. That's not all "direct" competition necessarily, but that is a lot of movies vying for the grown-up audience. And marketing this almost exclusively to the kids might have been a mistake, because Finding Dory is going to bury it in two weeks.

TMNT2 cost $135m to produce and at least $35m to market (likely a fair amount more), so... I can't see anyone at Paramount smiling about these numbers.

[JTH]

Originally Posted by ranger_scout

Variety says it might actually be heading for a $36 million weekend.



http://variety.com/2016/film/news/bo...ou-1201788792/

Plus, there is another update from Deadline:



http://deadline.com/2016/06/teenage-...ce-1201766674/

At least it's doing a little bit better than original estimates.

I doubt it get to 36, it might make another 12 million on Saturday, perhaps a bit more, some movies pull that off. But most movies have at least a 25% Sunday dropoff.

If the number fall as they usually do, (12, 12, 8 ) it will pull in 32 million for the weekend, but highly doubt it will make much more than that unless there's a big Saturday spike.

[Vicky82]

Originally Posted by Bry

Hard to say, really... Warcraft is performing well internationally, but there's no guarantee that'll apply to the North American market.

The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 also come out next week, and they all have pretty wide openings. That's not all "direct" competition necessarily, but that is a lot of movies vying for the grown-up audience.

And marketing this almost exclusively to the kids might have been a mistake, because Finding Dory is going to bury it in two weeks.

I forgot about those 2 movies are they R Rated movies though.

I find it strange that we get Finding Dory in late July here.