Brie Larson the frontrunner for Captain Marvel - Page 30

*neatoman* · 03-12-2019, 04:42 PM

Might be a good idea to bring this up. Remember how Batman vs Superman was a huge hit but the second week drop was 70%, with the first monday drop being 55%?

Well Captain Marvel has a first Monday drop of 71%. Don't get me wrong Batman vs Superman was still a big hit and Captain Marvel has already made a profit, it's just that the latter made half it's domestic box office in one weekend. It's kind of like if Infinity War or Black Panther is a bonfire, then BVS is a fireworks show. It's not exactly a dissappointment but it is a rather quick success that might not be as desired.

If Captain Marvel follows in BVS footsteps, then it could risk a 90% second weekend drop (though I consider that a worst case scenario, 90% would be cartoonishly bad).

~~Leo656~~ · 03-12-2019, 04:46 PM

Nah.

People forget how large the built-in audience for MCU films really is. It'll keep racking up the numbers, no sweat.

*Andrew NDB* · 03-12-2019, 04:50 PM

Monday drops are pretty meaningless.

*MsMarvelDuckie* · 03-12-2019, 11:03 PM

Spring break also starts this week in a lot of places, so numbers for the week may still be decent.

*Papenbrook* · 03-13-2019, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neatoman

Might be a good idea to bring this up. Remember how Batman vs Superman was a huge hit but the second week drop was 70%, with the first monday drop being 55%?

Well Captain Marvel has a first Monday drop of 71%. Don't get me wrong Batman vs Superman was still a big hit and Captain Marvel has already made a profit, it's just that the latter made half it's domestic box office in one weekend. It's kind of like if Infinity War or Black Panther is a bonfire, then BVS is a fireworks show. It's not exactly a dissappointment but it is a rather quick success that might not be as desired.

If Captain Marvel follows in BVS footsteps, then it could risk a 90% second weekend drop (though I consider that a worst case scenario, 90% would be cartoonishly bad).

That doesn't mean anything. The movie still made back it's budget ( marketing incl. ), and will keep springing onward.

Besides, there have been similar drops in the month of March. It could still earn over a billion dollars.

*Andrew NDB* · 03-13-2019, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Papenbrook

That doesn't mean anything. The movie still made back it's budget ( marketing incl. )

*peeks at B.O.* At the moment it looks like it has just now broke even.

*Papenbrook* · 03-13-2019, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

*peeks at B.O.* At the moment it looks like it has just now broke even.

How did you analyze its break-even point?

*Andrew NDB* · 03-13-2019, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Papenbrook

How did you analyze its break-even point?

152 million production budget. At least 100 million marketing budget. That's 252 million that's needed to be made up.

179 domestic off of weekend #1, that's about 120 million profit after the theaters' cut, give or take (probably less). It made 325 million overseas, so the studio only gets 25% of that... that's 81 million.

That's a profit of 201 million against a cost of 252. But guaranteed the 2nd weekend and onward will be gangbusters, at this rate.

Shinigami · 03-13-2019, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

Has anyone heard the "Fury theory"?

Spoiler:

He in fact does NOT eat diagonal toast. He picks up a rectangle.

*Papenbrook* · 03-13-2019, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

152 million production budget. At least 100 million marketing budget. That's 252 million that's needed to be made up.

179 domestic off of weekend #1, that's about 120 million profit after the theaters' cut, give or take (probably less). It made 325 million overseas, so the studio only gets 25% of that... that's 81 million.

That's a profit of 201 million against a cost of 252. But guaranteed the 2nd weekend and onward will be gangbusters, at this rate.

I hope it is.

*raph27* · 03-13-2019, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shinigami

He in fact does NOT eat diagonal toast. He picks up a rectangle.

Yeah, but he cuts it diagonally. Why not just cut it in half straight down then?

*Andrew NDB* · 03-13-2019, 04:18 PM

"Captain Marvel takes a jab at sexist True Lies movie."

https://slate.com/culture/2019/03/ca...s-cameron.html

I didn't even realize that was a jab. Maybe it was.

*Warhorse* · 03-13-2019, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

*peeks at B.O.* At the moment it looks like it has just now broke even.

Has it though? I always thought a movie is supposed to bring in at least 2.5x it's budget in the domestic office, but if that fails, then 3.5x international to break even.

*Andrew NDB* · 03-13-2019, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warhorse

Has it though? I always thought a movie is supposed to bring in at least 2.5x it's budget in the domestic office, but if that fails, then 3.5x international to break even.

I was wrong. By this weekend for sure.

Alita deserved this kind of box office 400% more.

*Xav* · 03-13-2019, 06:49 PM

*Andrew NDB* · 03-13-2019, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xav

I saw that. Brings up a good point... Nick Fury had a far more legitimate character arc in the movie than Carol Danvers did.

~~Sumac~~ · 03-13-2019, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

"Captain Marvel takes a jab at sexist True Lies movie."

https://slate.com/culture/2019/03/ca...s-cameron.html

I didn't even realize that was a jab. Maybe it was.

Everything is a jab and a statement (if you squint hard enough).

*Xav* · 03-13-2019, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

152 million production budget. At least 100 million marketing budget. That's 252 million that's needed to be made up.

179 domestic off of weekend #1, that's about 120 million profit after the theaters' cut, give or take (probably less). It made 325 million overseas, so the studio only gets 25% of that... that's 81 million.

That's a profit of 201 million against a cost of 252. But guaranteed the 2nd weekend and onward will be gangbusters, at this rate.

Deadline is claiming that it needs $750M to break even.

https://deadline.com/2019/03/captain...rd-1202574950/

*drgon78* · 03-14-2019, 06:20 AM

I agree with you Andrew NDB, Alita deserves this kind of box office 400%.

*neatoman* · 03-14-2019, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew NDB

I saw that. Brings up a good point... Nick Fury had a far more legitimate character arc in the movie than Carol Danvers did.

And how sad is that?

03-12-2019, 04:50 PM	#583
Andrew NDB Weed Whacker Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Auburn, WA Posts: 34,572	Monday drops are pretty meaningless. __________________ [ ODYSSEY \| ORIGIN \| THE IMAGE/VOL. 3 CONCLUSION \| THE SHELLSHOCKED PODCAST \| ON FACEBOOK ]

03-12-2019, 11:03 PM	#584
MsMarvelDuckie I Married a Duck! Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: The bowels of Hell, Texas(otherwise known as Decatur) Posts: 8,773	Spring break also starts this week in a lot of places, so numbers for the week may still be decent. __________________ "You IDIOTS! You've captured their STUNT doubles!" -from "Spaceballs" "Where Science ends, magic begins." -Spiral, Uncanny X-Men #491 My various stories and fan-fics are now here- https://m.fanfiction.net/u/4770494/#end

03-13-2019, 04:18 PM	#592
Andrew NDB Weed Whacker Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Auburn, WA Posts: 34,572	"Captain Marvel takes a jab at sexist True Lies movie." https://slate.com/culture/2019/03/ca...s-cameron.html I didn't even realize that was a jab. Maybe it was. __________________ [ ODYSSEY \| ORIGIN \| THE IMAGE/VOL. 3 CONCLUSION \| THE SHELLSHOCKED PODCAST \| ON FACEBOOK ]

03-12-2019, 04:46 PM	#582
~~Leo656~~ Banned Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: nWo Country Posts: 27,703	Nah. People forget how large the built-in audience for MCU films really is. It'll keep racking up the numbers, no sweat.

03-13-2019, 06:49 PM	#595
Xav Foot Elite Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,045

03-14-2019, 06:20 AM	#599
drgon78 Mad Scientist Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 2,409	I agree with you Andrew NDB, Alita deserves this kind of box office 400%.